Chris L Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'd still take that easily. Yes, 12" is always awesome, but its likely too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis shows the 32 deg. marker has moved north about 15 miles in the last 4 hours and now bisects LI and NYC lenghtwise (was along south shore at t =0). Is this in accordance with the models for this time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yes, 12" is always awesome, but its likely too low. IMO, I've seen this happen numerous times when the GFS catches up on the day of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Although it would be somewhat hilarious if the gfs schooled everyone and basically slammed the door in our faces, not that it's a complete disaster. For one, it's all snow, no mixing problems and it still probably gives the city nearly a foot like some said and it would verify the current WSW over NJ as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wait...........so this conversation went from tain to miss in 15 minutes? I think riding the Euro might be a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 so funny because if it showed 2 feet you all will be going nuts, not saying its right but good lord its one of the main models we use, its been consistent in not showing a snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm so confident that the GFS is wrong that if the GFS verifies, I will not post on this forum for the rest of the winter. Not fair, that implies there would even be a winter after this storm I don't know much about convective feedback issues with the GFS, but what you say seems makes sense givin the trend of the GFS vs other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Little chance of that, IMO. The Brooklyn Bridge would be a horrible place apparently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 so funny because if it showed 2 feet you all will be going nuts, not saying its right but good lord its one of the main models we use, its been consistent in not showing a snowfall This has been my concern! It's accuracy is WAY higher than the NAM, RGEM, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If the euro follows the GFS....I'm done posting. You guys better hope the euro follows the GFS Now I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Oof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 One positive I guess if that the GFS is cold, so what does fall for everybody should be vast majority snow. But its handling of this is just wacky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 so funny because if it showed 2 feet you all will be going nuts, not saying its right but good lord its one of the main models we use, its been consistent in not showing a snowfall If it showed 2 feet and had model support yes. When the GFS is all alone its almost always wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If gfs is correct how much snow would we get?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 A few more hours and then we can starts using the short range models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p626808 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 anyone know of any extra data being loaded into the 00Z models suite? From NOAA planes or otherwise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 holy crap guys, the GFS just went a little bit east, and dropped totals from 1-1.25 down to .75-1". not THAT big of a failure. a blip, and probably an erroneous correction due to convection, but stop crucifying the model for pete's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 so funny because if it showed 2 feet you all will be going nuts, not saying its right but good lord its one of the main models we use, its been consistent in not showing a snowfall what are you talking about it? shows a foot of snow..HELP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis shows the 32 deg. marker has moved north about 15 miles in the last 4 hours and now bisects LI and NYC lenghtwise (was along south shore at t =0). Is this in accordance with the models for this time frame? It got cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 so funny because if it showed 2 feet you all will be going nuts, not saying its right but good lord its one of the main models we use, its been consistent in not showing a snowfall not showing a snowfalll???? 10-12 inches on this run, about the same last run, what are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Oof prec.png 1 inch of that RAIN is hr 24 850`s are at 0 . 925 are plus 1 . if the model is a hair high , then u flip those numbers . its that close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 People get ready their's a train a com'in the radar looks just fine nowcasting and buoy reading will give you a good read on the system.Peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 IMO, I've seen this happen numerous times when the GFS catches up on the day of the event. last night everyone called the nam garbage. Which model is garbage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If gfs is correct how much snow would we get?? If it was all snow I'd say 6-10...I like to cut QPF a bit on events almost always. If it was mixing a bit, 4-8 probably...this is going to be our biggest storm of the season area wide, that much you can guarantee, whether its 4-8, 6-10, 10-15, or 15-20 is not as easy a call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GFS has some surface warmth because we don't get as much heavy precip to cool the boundary layer right away. And because of its low resolution. But like I've said, it's really all about the Euro right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 last night everyone called the nam garbage. Which model is garbage? No, we said it's garbage beyond 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 so funny because if it showed 2 feet you all will be going nuts, not saying its right but good lord its one of the main models we use, its been consistent in not showing a snowfall Incorrect, 18z yesterday afternoon of the GFS was in line with current guidance other than it's own current guidance lol. Not that it matters considering the GFS cannot ever handle these types of storms well so no matter what it shows, I choose to ignore it and will continue to do so tonight. Makes things clearer and easier to forecast one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 holy crap guys, the GFS just went a little bit east, and dropped totals from 1-1.25 down to .75-1". not THAT big of a failure. a blip, and probably an erroneous correction due to convection, but stop crucifying the model for pete's sake. You of all people were calling for rain....right? Show me some rain for NYC on the latest sounding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This has been my concern! It's accuracy is WAY higher than the NAM, RGEM, etc At hour 18, look at the huge convective blob it develops east of it. Then look at how thereafter, the low seems to shift east towards it. That's what I think causes this kind of solution. It's a convective feedback issue. It seems to shift a lot of convection way east and causes that track. Could it happen? I guess, but I've seen this error before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 IMO, I've seen this happen numerous times when the GFS catches up on the day of the event. last night everyone called the nam garbage. Which model is garbage? Haha exactly ! Last night the NAM was so Far East and everyone called it garbage, and now the GFS is Far East and IT is garbage ? Lol GFS is on average much more reliable.....have to be concerned as I've been saying ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.