NJHurricane Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 just a suggestion...and for this storm I will be kinda in the area (Middlesex county NJ) so I have a dog in this hunt.... We are in an age where we have a massive pallette of data with which to paint the forecast...instead of focusing on the op run of one model, blend in the SREF, the meso models, and when they come out the GFS ensembles...before hitting the panic button on just the GFS op... but yeah, it running in the opposite direction of a potential consensus will always grind our gears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If it was all snow I'd say 6-10...I like to cut QPF a bit on events almost always. If it was mixing a bit, 4-8 probably...this is going to be our biggest storm of the season area wide, that much you can guarantee, whether its 4-8, 6-10, 10-15, or 15-20 is not as easy a call. 4-8 is kinda low...even for gfs snowgoose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 At hour 18, look at the huge convective blob it develops east of it. Then look at how thereafter, the low seems to shift east towards it. That's what I think causes this kind of solution. It's a convective feedback issue. It seems to shift a lot of convection way east and causes that track. Could it happen? I guess, but I've seen this error before. Stop being logical! It's time to cut snowfall in half, if not more, and bow to the GFS Seriously people, relax and listen to the people who know what they are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think the Euro will look like the SREF. Heavy snow major storm NYC but historic for BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 At hour 18, look at the huge convective blob it develops east of it. Then look at how thereafter, the low seems to shift east towards it. That's what I think causes this kind of solution. It's a convective feedback issue. It seems to shift a lot of convection way east and causes that track. Could it happen? I guess, but I've seen this error before. That convective blob SE of the low off NC/VA has been bothering me for days on the GFS, I think its what caused its 00Z run last night to be funky and it may have done so again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If it was all snow I'd say 6-10...I like to cut QPF a bit on events almost always. If it was mixing a bit, 4-8 probably...this is going to be our biggest storm of the season area wide, that much you can guarantee, whether its 4-8, 6-10, 10-15, or 15-20 is not as easy a call. i think it t is all snow, and i think it depicts around 10-11 inches. unless other guidance really changes i wouldnt cut qpf from gfs in mkaing a forecast,even as i agree with your general rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 last night everyone called the nam garbage. Which model is garbage? Well historically the nam is in its deadly range now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Haha exactly ! Last night the NAM was so Far East and everyone called it garbage, and now the GFS is Far East and IT is garbage ? Lol GFS is on average much more reliable.....have to be concerned as I've been saying ! You're seriously comparing last night's NAM to tonight's GFS? Last night's NAM barely had any precip at all for NJ. That was CLEARLY garbage, as we all correctly stated. This GFS is probably garbage, too, but not by nearly as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The RGEM is 30+mm of snow for Northern NJ and NYC...which equates to about 1.2"+ liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Haha exactly ! Last night the NAM was so Far East and everyone called it garbage, and now the GFS is Far East and IT is garbage ? Lol GFS is on average much more reliable.....have to be concerned as I've been saying ! stop posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That convective blob SE of the low off NC/VA has been bothering me for days on the GFS, I think its what caused its 00Z run last night to be funky and it may have done so again. Is it usually like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks like some flakes might make it into the area soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well historically the nam is in its deadly range now The NAM does not have a deadly range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think the Euro will look like the SREF. Heavy snow major storm NYC but historic for BOS ECMWF will hold serve, if it does, then we are going to get the 2'+ totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 we'll know relatively soon where we stand...probably around 9-10am tomorrow morning. If the low pressure is located on hse or just inland a solution like this can be thrown out. If the lp position looks similar then we should surely worry about an easterly less phased solution. My guess; its not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 btw the awful gfs is still a foot of snow for nyc It's not. The gfs is rain/mix to about 0z-3z and only .45" falls after. It's 4"-7" at most. It has a surface temp of 39.5 at 1pm and 34 at 7pm. There are taints in other levels also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It could possibly come down to pure nowcasting with regards to snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The NAM does not have a deadly range Yes, this true. I am not too sure why people say that. It failed many times throughout the range no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 At hour 18, look at the huge convective blob it develops east of it. Then look at how thereafter, the low seems to shift east towards it. That's what I think causes this kind of solution. It's a convective feedback issue. It seems to shift a lot of convection way east and causes that track. Could it happen? I guess, but I've seen this error before. I think something similar happened here in CT on 1/12/11, the GFS was showing like 6-12" and the EURO was 15-25" (something like that) for several days and the EURO ended up being right (20"+ for most of SNE). Granted different setup but something in the back of my mind. Oh and I remember the NAM went nuts over CT that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sglickpa Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I was supposed to visit a friend in NYC on Sunday(driving from Lancaster, PA). I know the snow will be done, but 1 foot is a lot for a big city. Would you recommend that I cancel or will the city be reasonably clear by then. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The NAM does not have a deadly range Thank god the euro does, started inside of 72hrs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Snow making its way into NWNJ. Anyone up there with reports? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Factor this in....last night as upton's AFD said...the nam had no idea that a storm would even be coming up the coast ! The GFS had this same idea....now the NAM is going bonkers and the GFS held serve all day and night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Factor this in....last night as upton's AFD said...the nam had no idea that a storm would even be coming up the coast ! The GFS had this same idea....now the NAM is going bonkers and the GFS held serve all day and night.... And the Euro has held serve for 5 days now, while almost every other model has trended towards it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's not. The gfs is rain/mix to about 0z-3z and only .45" falls after. It's 4"-7" at most. It has a surface temp of 39.5 at 1pm and 34 at 7pm. There are taints in other levels also. one thing i am certain of is that the gfs surface temps are too high, i looked fast, so it is possible imissed a taint at 900 or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 from facebook: While the unabated love affair of some forecasters with the ecmwf model continues, maybe because it is faithful to the cause, I still have concerns and they are being borne out by watching more short range data continue to give mixed signals. Yes, I'm apparently getting flak for not bowing down to the 1 to 2 or 2-1/2 foot snow totals in the immediate NYC area but I am going to play devils advocate... on this to the very end. Don't get me wrong- THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG, AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING STORM. Will it really be historic? Biblical? Eastern New England for sure, maybe parts of CT and LI within the 880 listening area. But if our totals do wind up 6-12-18, banded sw to ne as I've mentioned on air, haven't we had storms like this before? If the 24-36" numbers verify, it indeed will not be forgotten. But here's why I've still capped my estimates:Meteorological but bear with me- a)Check 21z sref. We don't go below freezing til nearly 10pm. Then, big precip banding is offshore. 0z ruc- each run bringing 540 line a bit further inland through afternoon. So I think we do lose some wasted qpf thru the afternoon. c)1z RAP- all rain for the coast even as of 3pm. d) 0z nam shows 540 all the way back to nw NJ then follows I-84, even as of 7pm. (and then still a big snow thump at night) Craig Allen says "I am going to play devils advocate... on this to the very end." As written, it doesn't sound like somebody who is interested in getting it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It could possibly come down to pure nowcasting with regards to snowfall totals. Yes, banding will be key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Factor this in....last night as upton's AFD said...the nam had no idea that a storm would even be coming up the coast ! The GFS had this same idea....now the NAM is going bonkers and the GFS held serve all day and night.... and tomorrow is friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Save this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Factor this in....last night as upton's AFD said...the nam had no idea that a storm would even be coming up the coast ! The GFS had this same idea....now the NAM is going bonkers and the GFS held serve all day and night.... 2 days ago the GFS had this storm in Bermuda..please get your facts right..the ONLY model that has held serve for 5 days in a row has been the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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