IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah. This is going for West of the 40/70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the MM5 nailed the boxing day storm...and im sure others but i distinctly remember that one February 2006.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The isobar contours are pointing to over HSE. Matches up better with the NAM than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Reason? The storm is starting to look like the BDB 2010 in terms of position as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Matches up better with the NAM than the GFS Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 curious how the ggem/ukmet were fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I agree with your thoughts to a tee.As do I. I'm just saying to those who live run to run, that models are just complex algorithms set up to potentially show what physics in the atmosphere will do. Each model has its biases and its strengths. That is why with this type of storm especially, models need to be looked at very closely to see why they forecast what they do. This is why a forecaster needs extensive training and to be very knowledgeable in both physics and mathematics. Mainly this is why forecasters make forecasts and not computer models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 curious how the ggem/ukmet were fwiw GGEM was a touch NW and wetter from what I heard. UKMET-don't know, don't really care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Reason? The storm is starting to look like the BDB 2010 in terms of position as of right now. It's taking the classic Miller A track. I really don't think that the NAM is that far-fetched given how everything seems to be playing out so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 11PM snow map from Upton: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GGEM was a touch NW and wetter from what I heard. UKMET-don't know, don't really care. ggem is warm and quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1056 PM EST THU FEB 07 2013VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/1200 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST...00Z NAM EVALUATIONTHE 00Z NAM IS TOO WARM INVOF H85 ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3C ACROSSTHE INTERIOR OF THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM CENTRAL VA NEWD INTO E CNTRLPA AS SUGGEST BY THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro starts rolling at 12:30 correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro starts rolling at 12:30 correct? Just before 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro starts rolling at 12:30 correct? Probably more like 12:50-1:00 usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nice banding starting to form on the north side of the precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 ARW wow nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro starts rolling at 12:30 correct? 12:45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Drive thru some Flakes just east of Hershey pa for what It's worth. On the Lancaster Lebanon county line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 ARW is really nice for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1056 PM EST THU FEB 07 2013VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/1200 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST...00Z NAM EVALUATIONTHE 00Z NAM IS TOO WARM INVOF H85 ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3C ACROSSTHE INTERIOR OF THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM CENTRAL VA NEWD INTO E CNTRLPA AS SUGGEST BY THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1056 PM EST THU FEB 07 2013 VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM EVALUATION THE 00Z NAM IS TOO WARM INVOF H85 ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3C ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM CENTRAL VA NEWD INTO E CNTRL PA AS SUGGEST BY THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. Well thats huge bc the sounds over NYC were +2-3C 850-950mb.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdamobile Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1056 PM EST THU FEB 07 2013 VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM EVALUATION THE 00Z NAM IS TOO WARM INVOF H85 ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3C ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM CENTRAL VA NEWD INTO E CNTRL PA AS SUGGEST BY THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. The NAM being too warm for those area would throw it off that much??? I don't understand how.. That just explains why it was so warm.. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1056 PM EST THU FEB 07 2013 VALID FEB 08/0000 UTC THRU FEB 11/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM EVALUATION THE 00Z NAM IS TOO WARM INVOF H85 ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3C ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM CENTRAL VA NEWD INTO E CNTRL PA AS SUGGEST BY THE 00Z KIAD RAOB. May the weenies rejoice. Holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The NAM being too warm for those area would throw it off that much??? I don't understand how.. That just explains why it was so warm.. Any thoughts? Higher temperatures = higher heights = more amplified = further west = positive feedback towards even more warmth than the initial 2-3 C error would indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdamobile Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Higher temperatures = higher heights = more amplified = further west = positive feedback towards even more warmth than the initial 2-3 C error would indicate. Got it. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Anyone also very very impressed with the radar down south ? This thing is rich with moisture and I am starting to really believe that 2"+ total liquid is very possible over the area. You don't see a juicy system like this BEFORE the phase too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Higher temperatures = higher heights = more amplified = further west = positive feedback towards even more warmth than the initial 2-3 C error would indicate. If you ask me it's a sign that the NAM is too far west. GFS is probably too far east as well. Ride the middle aka the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Higher temperatures = higher heights = more amplified = further west = positive feedback towards even more warmth than the initial 2-3 C error would indicate. So what we should take away is that the NAM should have been a bit more east/lower qpf with the correction for the 2-3C error? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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