Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 so you're saying over 60% of the ukie precip is rain/sleet>? If you don't really get into a heavy CCB, your temps won't crash as quickly. It is believable that verbatim, the GFS and Ukie are not that much snow. But I'm really not too worried about them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just take a look of the radar out of Morehead, NC. You can already see the cyclonic flow just south of Morehead City itself along with banding features to the NW of the center. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MHX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SPC WRF.... Wow http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif That's a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I will ride the Euro because it nailed Sandy with 99% accuracy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdamobile Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It just stinks that eastern pa can't get in on the action. The NAM solution would make everyone in the Northeast very happy. Winter could end sunday and no one would complain.. But then again it's just frozen water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Can't believe I am staying up for a model run within 12 hours of storm time. But I am : ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 so you're saying over 60% of the ukie precip is rain/sleet>? According to surface temps maps, yes. So is gfs according to soundings. Not saying they are right. Ggem is also the same scenario. All 3 are warm through 7pm. And all 3 have about .50"-.65" of precip after 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Can't believe I am staying up for a model run within 12 hours of storm time. But I am : ) Heck, I'm going to watch like it's life or death every run until tomorrow 18z suite lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 UKMET is one of the most floppy models out there, and sometimes can't nail an event until 1 run before verification. GGEM is better but again can get caught up in the intracacies of a convective precip event like this. Same with the GFS. I'll see how my call goes and hopefully it works out-again, I think we have a period of rain/mix on the coast/city but it flips over fast when the CCB gets cranking. If you get into that region of crazy lift/dynamics, you will snow very much, guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 According to surface temps maps, yes. So is gfs according to soundings. Not saying they are right. Ggem is also the same scenario. All 3 are warm through 7pm. And all 3 have about .50"-.65" of precip after 7pm. The warmth just makes no sense. There's no mechanism for any of these models to warm the surface or the upper levels like this. None, nada. Whatever is doing it is a phantom creation due to these low model resolutions imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Heck, I'm going to watch like it's life or death every run until tomorrow 18z suite lol Even if the Euro holds serve or moves towards the NAM you're still going to have people refusing to buy it because the Goofus is still not in agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 According to surface temps maps, yes. So is gfs according to soundings. Not saying they are right. Ggem is also the same scenario. All 3 are warm through 7pm. And all 3 have about .50"-.65" of precip after 7pm. Surface temps are crap on lower res models, look at wind direction instead. If it's NE and off land, I doubt it's anywhere near that warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SPC WRF.... Wow http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif That's a HECS. biggie for nyc and a becs for Boston....approaches #1 all time there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Coastal Low already down to 1006 mB and it's definitely not following the 00Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Surface temps are crap on lower res models, look at wind direction instead. If it's NE and off land, I doubt it's anywhere near that warm. Exactly this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Coastal Low already down to 1006 mB and it's definitely not following the 00Z GFS. Yup been saying it all night and not just from a strength perspective but really from every perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 According to surface temps maps, yes. So is gfs according to soundings. Not saying they are right. Ggem is also the same scenario. All 3 are warm through 7pm. And all 3 have about .50"-.65" of precip after 7pm. is it surface that is too warmn or othel evels,that makes a huge difference in how much credibility iwould end to that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 is it surface that is too warmn or othel evels,that makes a huge difference in how much credibility iwould end to that solution. I think it is the surface. Recall seeing somewhere that the GFS sounding has 40 at the surface for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Interesting to note, and not that it has any bearing on us, but Roanoke, VA has been getting fairly heavy snow (reports and checked out a few webcams) despite a forecast of mixed precipitation. This is from their recent AFD: SEEMS COLDER AIR WINNING OUT AGAINST THE WARM NOSE OVER THEROANOKE/SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS INTO THE BLUE RIDGE OF FLOYD.SOME REPORTS OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE ROANOKE AREA SIGNIFYING LACK OFWARM NOSE PROGRESSION NORTH OF BLACKSBURG. MODELS HAVING A HARDTIME WITH THIS...BUT THE 18Z GFS/21Z SREF NOT TOO BAD IN THEPLACEMENT OF PRECIP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Surface temps are crap on lower res models, look at wind direction instead. If it's NE and off land, I doubt it's anywhere near that warm. Not disagreeing. But seeing temps of 39-41 degrees for NYC on the gfs and ukie at 1pm tomorrow, is a bit annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Take a good look at the radar, the moisture is developing great and it is steadily moving north way quicker than expected. The shearing has not occurred yet, and it doesn't look like it will. The gfs and other models showed the shearing as the precip got closer to coast, if it is wrong like it looks, could signal that gfs and others like it are totally wrong! Also shows moderate snow starting 8:45 in our area, light snow at 4 to 5 ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 on radar it seems like the southern stream disturbance is kinda chillen out waiting for that northern stream interaction. Really isn't moving very fast at all. Looks very wet though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 According to surface temps maps, yes. So is gfs according to soundings. Not saying they are right. Ggem is also the same scenario. All 3 are warm through 7pm. And all 3 have about .50"-.65" of precip after 7pm. It's with in the realm of possible outcomes hence the low end of many forecast totals. One good thing I guess, is the ukie is no longer tracking the low over Bermuda. I'll stick with the old EE rule in this case. But substitute the NAM with ETA and favor the EC by 65%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I know its what the models say but I'd be very surprised if nyc is higher than 35 tomorrow. if that. Maybe only 33-34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Right now I'm thinking precip may be a hair too late for us here to start as snow, lots of 33/22 T/Td spreads but I think we may work up to 36/28 or 37/30 or so by the time precip arrives 11-13Z. At that point its a question too if any mid-level warm layers are in there, if so the 20-23Z changeover time is probably about right, if not we could see a faster transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I know its what the models say but I'd be very surprised if nyc is higher than 35 tomorrow. if that. Maybe only 33-34 NYC is up to 32 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Where can you check real time pressure of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Right now I'm thinking precip may be a hair too late for us here to start as snow, lots of 33/22 T/Td spreads but I think we may work up to 36/28 or 37/30 or so by the time precip arrives 11-13Z. At that point its a question too if any mid-level warm layers are in there, if so the 20-23Z changeover time is probably about right, if not we could see a faster transition. What makes it likely we will get that warm? What mechanism is there in all of this to warm us up that much with pig cold high to our north? Is it roaring SE winds or something else? I honestly just don't buy that but hey what do I know which is why I am asking you lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Anyone have the 500 mB observation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 what are people going to say when the Euro goes east just enough to make this run of the mill... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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