Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 DCA is solid in .5" stripe now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS is way west for everyone..it is an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Haven't we seen this before? *Caugh* boxing day 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Last 4 runs of gfs (oldest to newest) Not really a trend. I suppose you can say 12-18z is a wetter trend (or expands the shield further west) but I think 18z is a simple tease before more reality hits later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 pretty sure this happened with boxing day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 pretty sure this happened with boxing day 1 Yea, except this time we're wondering how wet we get instead of white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 DC at 36 hours....it is still too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS is way west for everyone..it is an outlier So far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 DC at 36 hours....it is still too warm GFS_3_2013020618_F36_39_0000N_77_0000W.png Rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Rates ha...at 39 it is even worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 ha...at 39 it is even worse... It may be worse irt to the run itself but this run is the best of the last dozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 pretty sure this happened with boxing day 1 Maybe this time it goes the other way. No, I'm not delusional, but this is a place for conversation. Seems that lately these northern systems have been modeled too strong. Maybe it simply dissipates. Yeah, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 ha...at 39 it is even worse... Give me credit for trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Maybe this time it goes the other way. No, I'm not delusional, but this is a place for conversation. Seems that lately these northern systems have been modeled too strong. Maybe it simply dissipates. Yeah, I know. It's still not impossible to get some frozen but we're out of time for the miracle shift. Maybe we get something upfront that's washed down the gutter shortly after. But that would still be a win in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Maybe this time it goes the other way. No, I'm not delusional, but this is a place for conversation. Seems that lately these northern systems have been modeled too strong. Maybe it simply dissipates. Yeah, I know. bleh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Rgem wraps up around HSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's still not impossible to get some frozen but we're out of time for the miracle shift. Maybe we get something upfront that's washed down the gutter shortly after. But that would still be a win in my book. Why are we out of time for the miracle shift? The event is still over a day out. There are most certainly examples of a major blown forecast, in our favor, within the last 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I just booked a room up there. Screw it. Me and the wife love Boston anyways. Dont know if we will make it to the city though. Who knows, you may have taken one for the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 bleh Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Why are we out of time for the miracle shift? The event is still over a day out. There are most certainly examples of a major blown forecast, in our favor, within the last 15 years. problem is these things almost never wrap up quicker than expected. plus there's not much cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 if you check out the water vapor, that southern vort means business in its movement north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 pretty sure this happened with boxing day 1 I think it might have but even if it didn't, temps are really warm. here's the Dover sounding at 48hr. Matt has already showed that we are already warm at 36 hrs. Rain is rain. Date: 48 hour AVN valid 18Z FRI 8 FEB 13Station: KDOVLatitude: 39.13Longitude: -75.47-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 14 SFC 999 20 5.3 5.1 99 0.2 5.2 9 20 278.6 279.5 278.4 293.6 5.52 2 950 433 4.9 4.3 96 0.6 4.6 37 44 282.1 283.1 280.1 297.3 5.47 3 900 875 5.2 3.1 87 2.0 4.2 45 37 286.8 287.8 282.1 301.9 5.33 4 850 1341 4.2 1.8 84 2.4 3.1 47 25 290.6 291.5 283.5 305.4 5.14 5 800 1833 2.5 0.6 87 1.9 1.6 41 13 293.9 294.8 284.7 308.5 5.01 6 750 2353 -0.5 -1.3 94 0.9 -0.9 35 6 296.0 296.9 285.2 309.7 4.62 7 700 2902 -3.5 -4.1 96 0.6 -3.8 70 4 298.6 299.3 285.5 310.7 4.02 8 650 3485 -6.4 -6.8 97 0.4 -6.6 203 3 301.7 302.3 286.2 312.4 3.52 9 600 4107 -9.8 -10.1 98 0.3 -9.9 221 8 304.8 305.3 286.7 314.0 2.95 10 550 4774 -13.7 -13.9 98 0.2 -13.7 212 11 307.9 308.3 287.2 315.4 2.37 11 500 5493 -18.2 -18.3 99 0.2 -18.2 206 14 310.9 311.2 287.7 316.8 1.80 12 450 6271 -23.6 -23.7 99 0.1 -23.7 199 18 313.6 313.8 288.0 317.8 1.25 13 400 7121 -30.2 -30.2 100 0.0 -30.2 194 20 315.8 315.9 288.2 318.5 0.78 14 350 8056 -38.0 -38.0 100 0.0 -38.0 192 21 317.5 317.6 288.4 319.0 0.41 15 300 9095 -47.7 -47.8 98 0.1 -47.7 200 19 318.1 318.2 288.3 318.8 0.17 16 250 10284 -51.5 -59.2 40 7.6 -51.7 225 41 329.4 329.5 291.6 329.7 0.05 17 200 11742 -47.9 -72.8 4 24.9 -48.6 243 71 356.8 356.8 298.1 356.9 0.01 18 150 13631 -52.5 -78.9 3 26.4 -53.0 248 88 379.6 379.6 302.2 379.6 0.01 19 100 16175 -63.3 -81.0 7 17.8 -63.4 258 75 405.5 405.5 305.9 405.5 0.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? one thing for sure is im not happy for boston. they get a hecs every year just about. white preppy town. hope they bust hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's still not impossible to get some frozen but we're out of time for the miracle shift. Maybe we get something upfront that's washed down the gutter shortly after. But that would still be a win in my book. Even then for most of us, it would be white falling and too warm to stick unless the flakes were the size of basketballs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 one thing for sure is im not happy for boston. they get a hecs every year just about. white preppy town. hope they bust hard. I don't get upset when those north of me get it......but when it happens to the south, different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Why are we out of time for the miracle shift? The event is still over a day out. There are most certainly examples of a major blown forecast, in our favor, within the last 15 years. Trust me, I'm a dedicated weenie but there are things that can't be overcome here. An all snow event is 100% off the table. If it happens I'm outta here forever. Edit: and what ian said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Even then for most of us, it would be white falling and too warm to stick unless the flakes were the size of basketballs. so you think we might get basketball sized flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 DC at 36 hours....it is still too warm You're right, way warm. We have the 850's at -2.0 and -3.0 in the first and last frames but surface ranges from 2.0-4.5c throughout the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I didn't want to go check Boston's forecast. And yet I couldn't help myself. I didn't want to read the blizzard watch language. But I couldn't help that either. And I salivated a bit. And tried to remember when we last had one of those. (Prior to one of the luscious 2010 storms, perhaps?) I'm such a pathetic masochist... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 even PHL is way too warm on the GFS gotta' get to NYC and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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