clskinsfan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Who knows, you may have taken one for the team. It is not a guaranteed rate. If its gonna snow here of any circumstance. I am cancelling the trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Why are we out of time for the miracle shift? The event is still over a day out. There are most certainly examples of a major blown forecast, in our favor, within the last 15 years. Yes. Painfully so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yes. Painfully so. I don't remember any cases of a 2 ft snow forecasted to go north of us shifting south and nailing us ever. Minor adjustments sure. Getting an inch unexpected sure. Having a major shift like this no. But there is always a first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 How's this thing looking for the green mountains in vermont? Might consider a trip up to stratton or killington. They seem to get a nice bit from the primary and an inverted trough type thing combined with upslope. Consensus seems a nice 12" storm for Vermont. Maybe more is the winds hit the mtns just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm going with climo on this one.. 3 inches of slop followed by dry slot/drizzle.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm going with climo on this one.. 3 inches of slop followed by dry slot/drizzle.. We're not even going to get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm going with climo on this one.. 3 inches of slop followed by dry slot/drizzle.. You sure are optimistic. Not a single model shows 3 inches of slop for DCA right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 problem is these things almost never wrap up quicker than expected. plus there's not much cold air. The storm can make its own cold air. reference (Weenie Handbook, page 74). MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I don't remember any cases of a 2 ft snow forecasted to go north of us shifting south and nailing us ever. Minor adjustments sure. Getting an inch unexpected sure. Having a major shift like this no. But there is always a first. We have had major storms downgraded. But I wasn't referring to MA getting anything in this instance. Rather thinking of us getting painfully shafted at times. Yeah. A shift here on this this one may get someone some flakes. Not counting on it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I think at this point boston is locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 You sure are optimistic. Not a single model shows 3 inches of slop for DCA right now. Climo.. and storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 For once, my travel plans might work out... I'm driving up to NYC on Friday morning and will be there until Sunday evening... looking forward to finally seeing some real snow Hoping for thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Train Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I have a trip to NYC this weekend - arriving around 10:30 Friday morning - so I can give you guys a full report. The NYC thread is full of "rain to 3 inches" or "30 inches+". Either way, I'll need an umbrella. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The way the radar looks; the leading edge of the precip looks as if it would reach central VA by late tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 SREFS are colder and wetter to some degree across most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 00z GFS just barely gets .25'' contour to DCA. NAM is basically .1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 00z GFS just barely gets .25'' contour to DCA. Isn't it too early for the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Lol, did you not realize he does this on purpose.i just figured he was looking at last night's like a doofus http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_090_precip_p48.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Bleh. This is awkward. Can't be the first to make this mistake though lol yoda still makes it every few weeks... or posts the ggem.. which is basically the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 SREFS are colder and wetter to some degree across most of the area. I looked again to be sure, and the srefs are definitely wetter and somewhat colder at 850 and the surface. That's all I can see. These things have to have some use, right? Can't see individuals, so I don't know yet how them mean is getting where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 yoda still makes it every few weeks... or posts the ggem.. which is basically the same thing I dont make that mistake... I post the GGEM only for snowstorm purposes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Nam is absolutely historic... For SNE. Good news though, it is the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Explain, optimists over pessimists or bitter folk? I will take realistic optimists over the other 2 any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I will take realistic optimists over the other 2 any day. Thanks for the kind words, and congrats to your Ravens. Truth be told, I'm usually foolishly optimistic. However, I do tend to really like wet systems with cad involved. Trouble is this time it seems we need more wet and more cad. If we could just get that northern low to back off, maybe give those ne winds a chance to slide in. I am intrigued by the srefs. Damn PSU site is holding back the ind members though so I don't know what to make of it. As Ian said, we all have our roles. I'm probably just playing my usual (see above). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thanks for the kind words, and congrats to your Ravens. Truth be told, I'm usually foolishly optimistic. However, I do tend to really like wet systems with cad involved. Trouble is this time it seems we need more wet and more cad. If we could just get that northern low to back off, maybe give those ne winds a chance to slide in. I am intrigued by the srefs. Damn PSU site is holding back the ind members though so I don't know what to make of it. As Ian said, we all have our roles. I'm probably just playing my usual (see above). Usually I love your optimism, and can frequently share it with you! Just I don't see this one with the primary, its a big time nono to stop the flow of cold air. I don't like these set-ups one bit. Eliminate that low and it'd be a KU up and down the coast, but we unfortunately can't. Miller B screwage, and lakes low warm air surge. The transfer eliminates our chance at real QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thanks for the kind words, and congrats to your Ravens. Truth be told, I'm usually foolishly optimistic. However, I do tend to really like wet systems with cad involved. Trouble is this time it seems we need more wet and more cad. If we could just get that northern low to back off, maybe give those ne winds a chance to slide in. I am intrigued by the srefs. Damn PSU site is holding back the ind members though so I don't know what to make of it. As Ian said, we all have our roles. I'm probably just playing my usual (see above). It is like a 4th and 29 down here but hell the Ravens did it and we won the Super Bowl so anything is possible . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 We need a ton more Winterwxluvr's and a lot less of some of the other posters here. He's a Met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like the NAM still likes the warm boxing day scenario for us. Looks good for NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like the NAM still likes the warm boxing day scenario for us. Looks good for NE. I liked the Wes from the other thread MUCH better, maybe go back in there . Wes have you ever chased a storm in your life? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like the NAM still likes the warm boxing day scenario for us. Looks good for NE. Until we get into RAP range nothing is off the board. Have you not scene the water vapor?11!?? Barometer at 30.23 and steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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