Marion_NC_WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 18z GFS still a cold rain for Western North Carolina on Friday. Temps in the 34-37 range with QPF approaching 1 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Still worth watching. Just need the hp to move a little further south - its wayyyyyyyy up in eastern canada. It also seems the models are trending toward a weaker low and not as much qpf over the midwest and tennesee valley. Sighhhhhh. This winter is wearing me out. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Hey - how about 1 more really good north Florida freeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 GSP's afternoon short term: .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...THE MODELS FEATURE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THESHORT TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES MONNIGHT WILL DRAG A TROUGH AXIS TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WHICHWILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHTUE. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGIONDURING THE PERIOD. UPPER JET DIVERGENCE AND QG FORCING AHEAD OF THETROUGH WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURSTUE...WITH SRLY UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ENHANCED ACROSS THE SRN MTNSAS A LOW LEVEL JET ARRIVES. 40 KT WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THEHIGHER PEAKS OF THE SRN MTNS...MAINLY ABOVE 4000 FEET. WINTRY MIXEDPTYPES WILL PRESENT A PROBLEM FOR THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNINGHOURS AS WELL...WITH WET BULB PROFILES ISOTHERMAL NEAR ZERO AT ONSETWITH A WARM NOSE ONLY GRADUALLY APPEARING DUE TO THE LINGERING DRYAIR IN PLACE. A BLEND OF COLDER GFS AND WARMER NAM PROFILES SUGGESTSTHAT ADVISORY LEVEL ICE AND SNOW ACCUMS COULD BE A PROBLEM IN THESRN MTNS GIVEN THE FAIRLY HIGH QPF IN THE UPSLOPE ZONE. IN ADDITIONHIGHER RIDGES ACROSS TRANSYLVANIA...JACKSON...AND HAYWOOD COUNTIESCOULD BE AT OR ABOVE THE SHALLOW WARM NOSE EARLY IN THE EVENT TOPOSE A THREAT OF MORE SNOW/SLEET ACCUM. THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY MAYSEE ENOUGH OF A WARM LAYER DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE FOR WINTRYACCUMS TO NOT POSE TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM...WHILE NRN BLUE RIDGELOCATIONS COULD SEE MAINLY SNOW...ALBEIT WITH LIGHTER QPF. ALLTHINGS CONSIDERED...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A WATCH INANY MTN LOCATIONS...BUT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED ATSOME POINT FOR LATER MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING.THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD MOVE VERY QUICKLY ACROSS THEFOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING MAINLY THE MORNING HOURSTUE...WITH VERY LITTLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THESWIFTLY MOVING COLD FRONT. ANY NW FLOW UPSLOPE MOISTURE ON THE COLDADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED. WILLLEAN TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE CLOUDS/PRECIP.DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUE NIGHT THROUGHWED AS SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRES WILL STRETCH FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGHTHE SE. DESPITE THE GOOD INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW...TEMPSSHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WED AFTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 On what are you basing this? Consider these SE US major winter storms (5 of the last 10 that included some real doozies like the 1993 blizzard and even included a second March storm) that were during MJO phases 4 and 5 (which may not even verify since MJO forecasts are not reliable): - 1/9-10/2011: started in 6 and went to 5 - 12/25-6/2010: 5 - 3/1/2009: 4 - 2/26-7/2004: 5 - 3/13/1993: 4 The MJO may have more predictive power in some other ways or in other regions like the NE US....I don't know and don't really care that much about whether or not it does. I just know it doesn't for SE US major winter storm chances. However, the MJO prediction constantly gets noted as if it is crucial in this regard. Using it for this for SE winter storm chances is a bunch of "malarkey" as Joe Biden might say. Yesterday's significant snowfall for portions of the Carolinas occurred during MJO phase 4, one of the so-called unfavorable/warm phases. This is just more evidence that there is very little, if any, correlation of MJO phase and SE winter storms. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.phase.Last40days.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 . Certainly looks that way if modeling is correct. Maybe the gfs iis on to something as we close out feb start march with a miller a GOM that keeps showing up after day 10. Not gonna get above normal here it looks like, but the storms are gonna cut up to our west when they are around. We really need the pacific to get shaking up by next fall. I can't handle a third year in a row of crappy winter. Outside these very low chance front end events I think we may have one more shot as we flip calendar into march if goofy is correct. Otherwise we may have just witnessed the last event east of the apps this winter. Why do you guys continue to do this to yourselves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Why do you guys continue to do this to yourselves? Because we love snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 More precipitation for the South-East in late winter...bodes well for Spring/Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Because we love snow. And I wan to crash and burn some more, I would love nothing more than models to show a 8-12" snowstorm only for it to fizzle out 24 hours before the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 More precipitation for the South-East in late winter...bodes well for Spring/Summer. I don't know, man. The skies are probably going to be pretty wrecked after this wet winter. It's probably going to be a pretty dry spring and summer as the skies are going to need to heal and lick their wounds. One can only hope that the sky has recovered by the winter of 2013-2014. And I wan to crash and burn some more, I would love nothing more than models to show a 8-12" snowstorm only for it to fizzle out 24 hours before the event Oh, yeah! I see our ~300 hr fantasy storm is back and ready for action on the 18z GFS. 850s seem to indicate all-snow from I-40 or so northward and 1.25"+ QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Indicies still indicate we might have one last chance for a widespread SE storm up through the first part of March. PNA should be positive, NAO negative,and AO negative. Long rang GFS shows a pattern that would favor this idea. Below is the 18z at hour 312 . Not showing this because of the storm (shown) but for the general pattern depicted. If anything it looks like an early spring is not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I should note that the 18z GFS showed a 1068 mb HP system over Greenland at hr 312, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Whoa ...... 1068? That's amazing. Or, that would be amazing. Question is how it would impact southeast weather TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 1068? holy cow. I'm assuming that would cause some major blocking? So is the ice storm potential that was being discussed recently gone now? i'm generally not the biggest ip/zr fan but i'll take 32 with some frozen precip over 50 and sunny. this was my first winter in north carolina (sandhills region). most of the winter was 47-60 for a high, 30-40 for a low. in arkansas we generally had 45-52 as a high and 25-35 for lows, but it often got to the single digits or at least low teens in arkansas. in NC lowest i've seen so far is 16, and that was near the record low! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Yeah, here it is over Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Indicies still indicate we might have one last chance for a widespread SE storm up through the first part of March. PNA should be positive, NAO negative,and AO negative. Long rang GFS shows a pattern that would favor this idea. Below is the 18z at hour 312 . Not showing this because of the storm (shown) but for the general pattern depicted. If anything it looks like an early spring is not going to happen. That doesn't look like a widespread SE snowstorm at all. Mainly TN/NC and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 That doesn't look like a widespread SE snowstorm at all. Mainly TN/NC and points north. It's a 312 hour OP GFS run... Who cares? It isn't going to happen and offers no value at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 It's a 312 hour OP GFS run... Who cares? It isn't going to happen and offers no value at all. That exact setup, probably not. There will be a gulf system that tries to bomb off the SE coast from the Gulf before we officially enter Spring though. The GFS is consistent with something within this time period. Waiting for the 7-10 day Euro to pick it up currently. I shouldn't have said WILL, I should have said confidence is increasing in my mind. We are currently in a mid-west/plains winter onslaught for the next while though. I am more than confident that the temps will be below average for March... (not saying snow).. but below. The CFSv2 from earlier has a very snowy look on one of it's members around that "312" hr storm btw but has backed off a bit. Let's wait til' the plains gets their winter for the next week and a half and then we will know much more about a possible eastern trough at the very end of the month. Hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Not terribly cold either. Let's give it a week and see what we have. I'm sure there will be more after this one if it doesn't work out!!! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 300 hour maps are for the banter thread folks...you know those fantasy storms will disappear and reappear run to run...lets keep it realistic in this thread. It's been a few pages of those posts now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 That exact setup, probably not. There will be a gulf system that tries to bomb off the SE coast from the Gulf before we officially enter Spring though. The GFS is consistent with something within this time period. Waiting for the 7-10 day Euro to pick it up currently. I shouldn't have said WILL, I should have said confidence is increasing in my mind. We are currently in a mid-west/plains winter onslaught for the next while though. I am more than confident that the temps will be below average for March... (not saying snow).. but below. The CFSv2 from earlier has a very snowy look on one of it's members around that "312" hr storm btw. Let's wait til' the plains gets their winter for the next week and a half and then we will know much more about a possible eastern trough at the very end of the month. Hopefully. LR GFS and consistent don't go together in the same breath. The 500mb and surface maps the LR gfs has been spitting out look nearly impossible to improbable at the very best. The new0z tonight is just as far fetched. I've said it before OP GFS post truncation is nearly worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goduke Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 If only that 1032 mb high were 1k miles to the south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 LR GFS and consistent don't go together in the same breath. The 500mb and surface maps the LR gfs has been spitting out look nearly impossible to improbable at the very best. The new0z tonight is just as far fetched. I've said it before OP GFS post truncation is nearly worthless. You are definitely right about those 500MB maps. GFS is definitely not correct longrange. Still feel like the Euro may pick up on a potent system in a few days though. I side with it being too warm if/when it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 So it's looking like KCHA will finish a second consecutive winter without seeing temps dip below 20. I suspect we are working on a record there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Dealing with the Fridays event, RAH mentioned that there could be some minor icing in the far northern areas of NC. They think this will be very minor to non-eventful for most. Looking at the setup from last night's GFS there is a very good CAD setup depicted. I think the problems are the location of the surface low out west and the actual cold air available to be feed into the CAD areas. RAH has Raleigh staying in the 30s all day Friday, but with only rain. This tells me the CAD will stay firm but cold/dry air to the north will be lacking. Still something to track just in case the air (up north) is colder than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 There is no shortage of Rainfall on the GFS the next 15 days. If you prefer to chase cold rain then you'll love the next several weeks. Heres the 10 day. Next weekend looks wet on both ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 That doesn't look like a widespread SE snowstorm at all. Mainly TN/NC and points north. that 540 line needs to be about 50 to 100 miles south of where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I know the teleconnective forecast changes like underwear, but: That's really good news IMO if we can get the NAO/AO both negative and the PNA positive; for one more week period or so of storm potential. Other than that I think we stay cool and wet. Not holding my breath on a snow storm in March but nice cool rain seems to be likely. Each "threat" that comes by I think we'll be in the game, but I doubt we get quite cold enough. I was surpised by the quick 3 inch plastering Saturday, so who knows. No warmth it seems nor early Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 That's really good news IMO if we can get the NAO/AO both negative and the PNA positive; for one more week period or so of storm potential. Other than that I think we stay cool and wet. Not holding my breath on a snow storm in March but nice cool rain seems to be likely. Each "threat" that comes by I think we'll be in the game, but I doubt we get quite cold enough. I was surpised by the quick 3 inch plastering Saturday, so who knows. No warmth it seems nor early Spring. I hope it would, although the MJO pulse rocketing around into phase 5 and kinda hanging out favors an Ohio Valley storm track I believe, which is what the models are showing. I also think the proximity these storms are to each other keeps anything from really digging in and giving us a Miller A type scenario. Somebody can weigh in if I'm incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 That's really good news IMO if we can get the NAO/AO both negative and the PNA positive; for one more week period or so of storm potential. Other than that I think we stay cool and wet. Not holding my breath on a snow storm in March but nice cool rain seems to be likely. Each "threat" that comes by I think we'll be in the game, but I doubt we get quite cold enough. I was surpised by the quick 3 inch plastering Saturday, so who knows. No warmth it seems nor early Spring. You sound as if you like cold rain. If it's not going to snow I want spring to get here asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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