daddylonglegs Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Next week looks very mild, at least for Jan around here... 12z GFS is very dry, so don't see any accumulation for at least another week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Next week looks very mild, at least for Jan around here... 12z GFS is very dry, so don't see any accumulation for at least another week. I think you gotta follow the euro at this point. The gfs went from showing the polar vortex over MN a few days ago in the long term, to a continually delayed run of the mill January cold shot and trough centered further and further west. No doubt the cold will come, but probably sometime after the 18 th at the earliest (at least here in Ohio) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Next week looks very mild, at least for Jan around here... 12z GFS is very dry, so don't see any accumulation for at least another week. I think you gotta follow the euro at this point. The gfs went from showing the polar vortex over MN a few days ago in the long term, to a continually delayed run of the mill January cold shot and trough centered further and further west. No doubt the cold will come, but probably sometime after the 18 th at the earliest (at least here in Ohio) It's hard to get a true cold shot with the pacific blitzing the continent with warm air. Partly its the lack of block, just not a good combo... 1990's winter. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 It's getting annoying. Shut up already. But its ok for you Chicago posters to meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 But its ok for you Chicago posters to meltdown. I haven't noticed any meltdown by ORD posters. In fact, most of the posts are referring to cheering on the futility run and those of us outsiders who are lightheartedly teasing them. You can't change it, so you might as well laugh about it. A meltdown is freaking out over the long range GFS. P.S. For a little solace, go read QVectorman's analysis in the long term thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I haven't noticed any meltdown by ORD posters. In fact, most of the posts are referring to cheering on the futility run and those of us outsiders who are lightheartedly teasing them. You can't change it, so you might as well laugh about it. A meltdown is freaking out over the long range GFS. P.S. For a little solace, go read QVectorman's analysis in the long term thread. QVectorman has been so spot on. Its great to have his thoughts and input for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 QVectorman has been so spot on. Its great to have his thoughts and input for our region. Agree wholeheartedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 lol. Anyways, stratocumulus has advected in. We've had cloudy skies for the past hour. YAY!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 lol. Anyway, stratocumulus has advected in. WE've had cloudy skies for the past hour. YAY!!! Winter in Michigan and we have a weak system moving in, not sure why the cloud cover is surprising or why you lamenting about it. Hell it was sunny all day yesterday probably should have gone out then if you wanted to something in the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Winter in Michigan and we have a weak system moving in, not sure why the cloud cover is surprising or why you lamenting about it. Hell it was sunny all day yesterday probably should have gone out then if you wanted to something in the sun. The same reason some people lament about our hot/humid summers BTW, looking at the satellite, the SC overhead has nothing to do with the approaching system. It's mostly clear across much of the state. If anything, it may be lake enhanced by Erie/St. Clair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 The same reason some people lament about our hot/humid summers BTW, looking at the satellite, the SC overhead has nothing to do with the approaching system. It's msotly clear across much of the state. If anything, it may be lake enhanced by Erie/St. Clair. Lake enhanced due to the wind coming out of the South ahead of the next system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 The model runs for tonight are looking better for 1 to 3 inches of snow across the area, as long as no stupid rain mixes in. Perhaps we could get our first widespread snowfall across the SW Michigan region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I plan to enjoy tomorrow's snowfall in Toronto as the medium range looks down-right awful as per the 12z GFS, with an extended torch and the return of the cold being pushed back further and further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Lake enhanced due to the wind coming out of the South ahead of the next system... But not directly tied to the lift/dynamics of the next shortwave. The bulk of th shortwave after all is still located, in two separate pieces, across MO/KS/OK and the Dakotas. Otherwise, I imagine we would have mid/upper level clouds advecting in above the stratocumulus deck currently and the areas upstream across Northern Indiana and SW Michigan would also be overcast. If anything, the cause of the SC deck locally is likely a combination of things... 1. WAA at/above 850mb brining in temps aloft at/above 0*C or 32*F. 2. Surface temps falling into the middle teens under clear skies last night. 3. Surface moisture increase from all of the water that evaporated from the snowpack yesterday. 4. A bit of lake enhancement form Lake Erie/St. Clair. WAA can be generated simply by rising heights aloft and return flow behind a high pressure system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Powerball, it is overcast over here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 What a disaster of a page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I plan to enjoy tomorrow's snowfall in Toronto as the medium range looks down-right awful as per the 12z GFS, with an extended torch and the return of the cold being pushed back further and further. Relax man sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Overcast is increasing here. Bottomed out at 17° this morning. Snow and sleet for tonight's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Currently 33 here. Soundings look more favorable for a short period of light snow this evening with saturation reaching the DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 GFS showing a bit more precip with this system than before, 0.05-0.1" liquid. We'll see how much of that is freezing rain/drizzle and how much is snow, could create some havoc if it ends up being mostly rain since temps will be solidly below freezing throughout the event in Madison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 QVectorman has been so spot on. Its great to have his thoughts and input for our region. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 My Dad called me from Kankakee and said its rip city there. It'll be brief though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Ripping nicely here, would love to get a storm this winter where this happens for a long duration.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Awesome scene here. Big fluffy dendrites. Got some video I'll post later. Snow sticking to everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Light snow here... Actually quickly covering the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2013 Author Share Posted January 5, 2013 Level of concern for futility records: Elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Snowed nicely for about 5 minutes and then changed to light rain. No accumulation. Snowpack starting to take a bit of a hit with the warmer temps. Probably a little under 2" on average now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Level of concern for futility records: Elevated. 37º at ORD. Futility will live on. Got flakes here now in the LAF too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 37º at ORD. Futility will live on. Got flakes here now in the LAF too. I was just getting ready to post that I hadn't seen hide nor hair of Tim for the past couple of days. I figured that you'd be on here crowing about your up to 1" of incoming snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 37º at ORD. Futility will live on. Got flakes here now in the LAF too. 35 here and everything is white already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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