ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'd sht a brick if we torched at 900mb but was near freezing in bl. Like c'mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think Plymouth county has more to worry about than southern CT but I don't like this. it may not be right. but i think it does need to be considered as an option/concern. this storm isn't running into a brick wall of frigid air. it's running in to marginally average stuff. so for coastal folks, i think it's a legit thing to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I honestly really never thought this would be an issue looking at other guidance earlier today, but living on the coast have seen it happen many times of course. If this area is more over running and we miss out on the dynamics with the coastal, we could easily rain. I think things will work out, especially since it does not seem like a mid level punch of warmth is in the mix, but OKX since this morning has certainly take notice. Thanks for your thoughts, lets hope the gfs is wrong, or at least some heavier precip overcomes bl issues and good luck! Growing up in New London, I learned early and reminded often that anything that can go wrong with a snow forecast very likely would go wrong with a snow forecast. I think that's where my qpf anxiety comes in--I've been conditioned to see snow forecasts melt away. P-type is no longer the big concern, but I'm accustomed to snow not happening. lol My only concern on the temps down there would be if it were to continue to trend NW--but the window for that (or at least to forecast that) is rapidly closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 One of the rare occasions where I'm in a WSW and locations just a town north of me have a WWA. But I agree with BOX. We will probably fit in the lower end of the 4-8 IMO. 5-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Air mass isn't exactly cold. It was almost 40 here today as was the case along the shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Growing up in New London, I learned early and reminded often that anything that can go wrong with a snow forecast very likely would go wrong with a snow forecast. I think that's where my qpf anxiety comes in--I've been conditioned to see snow forecasts melt away. P-type is no longer the big concern, but I'm accustomed to snow not happening. lol My only concern on the temps down there would be if it were to continue to trend NW--but the window for that (or at least to forecast that) is rapidly closing. True Mike! Just gotta roll with the punches I am pretty confident, but these setups in December can be dicey around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Thanks,Mid level warming? I thought the surface was too warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 One of the rare occasions where I'm in a WSW and locations just a town north of me have a WWA. But I agree with BOX. We will probably fit in the lower end of the 4-8 IMO. 5-6". Id be pretty happy if I end up with 5-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Air mass isn't exactly cold. It was almost 40 here today as was the case along the shoreline. Yep, weenies hate me, I point out how warm its been......... today was pretty normal I think, have not checked but its not like we have vodka cold around, hardly lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 it may not be right. but i think it does need to be considered as an option/concern. this storm isn't running into a brick wall of frigid air. it's running in to marginally average stuff. so for coastal folks, i think it's a legit thing to think about. I could see a 34F snowfall at the beaches, 31-32 just inland but I feel like the BL wouldn't torch on a NE wind backing northerly along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Thanks,Mid level warming? I thought the surface was too warm? Looks funky to me honestly. You're set up there dude. GON maybe a diff story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Here is my latest forecast. Still trying to work some details out, so the forecast confidence is set at 70%. I think 3"+ for most of the region is pretty straight-forward, but the band of heavier snow that sets up will be key in determining how high amounts go and where that zone ends up. Right now, I think it's eastern CT, inland RI and interior SE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 wow, 18z gfs comes in 6 degrees colder at the surface for bdr, now a temp of 32-33 during peak precip rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Having said that, in this part of Ct, with any northerly component to the wind I would feel fine, even ene blows over land. Nothing to do but sit back and enjoy it, Ridgefield to Shelton and east northeast to Stevie boy should be golden unfortunately I have to make a huge work related decision tomorrow AM, will wait until 6 z models come out. My work area is a classic on the line between the coast , behind the terminal moraine usual BL. Also have to consider staff, visiting groups locations of travel. timing BL and intensity all a major headache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It gon snow! Still like my map thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Re: temps. The morning MOS data did not make much sense. Dew-points below 30 and steady precip, didn't see how coastal CT would get into the upper 30's anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 oxc is about 28-29 during best precip i think inland ct could see some nice ratios from this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 wow, 18z gfs comes in 6 degrees colder at the surface for bdr, now a temp of 32-33 during peak precip rates Thank Effin Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS QPF similar to 12z a good 25-50 miles nw, earlier intensification, thus more QPF especially for eastern areas. See, this is why i get such a migraine sometimes. - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 ? Lord you beat me to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 oxc is about 28-29 during best precip i think inland ct could see some nice ratios from this storm SE CT will probably see the best. Inland I am saying 2-5 imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 So models are pretty much in synch. The surprises good and bad are unknown due to meso effects that are nearly impossible to deduce even 24 hours out. To mention ... the unspeakable plausibility of this thing shifting NW again, whole-scale, upon the 00z runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Albany about to blow another forecast for here I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Id be pretty happy if I end up with 5-6". Yeah that might be a little bullish, but I really am expecting 4+. This to me is just like the last storm where I could end up with 2" or 8". Except last storm it was more like 4" or 10" and it was for completely different reasons lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 haha, I swear, it seems sometimes like there is some god that takes filthy pleasure in concocting these scenarios that yo-yo with people. I was just thinking how hard I might laugh if this thing suddenly came so far NW that it actually rained over SE zones and the Cape. I mean ...I wound't have seen that coming either, but sometimes you just gotta laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 call me a weenie but did both the GFS and NAM initialize with weaker disturbances than current/further S and E? edit: nevermind, was looking at old data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 As far as the BOS area goes, if we maintain n-NNE winds we should be fine. GFS tries to keep Cstl front just east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I could see a 34F snowfall at the beaches, 31-32 just inland but I feel like the BL wouldn't torch on a NE wind backing northerly along the coast. I'm inclined to agree. OKX is going 37 here tomorrow. I'll be surprised if we're warmer than 34 when precip arrives. I don't see rain on the shoreline except maybe beaches in New London County. Maybe we warm enough that ratios are crap for a time which hurts totals. But I expect snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 IMO, the falmouth/sandwich/marston's mills areas have huge positive bust potential...1"+ QPF & I could see that radar signature where there's that little circle of the interior upper cape just ripping with rain surrounding all sides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 call me a weenie but did both the GFS and NAM initialize with weaker disturbances than current/further S and E? Yeah, it's incredible when they ran the recumbinant runs with the corrected input; they're calling the Nation Guard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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