Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Albany about to blow another forecast for here I think. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 haha, I swear, it seems sometimes like there is some god that takes filthy pleasure in concocting these scenarios that yo-yo with people. I was just thinking how hard I might laugh if this thing suddenly came so far NW that it actually rained over SE zones and the Cape. I mean ...I wound't have seen that coming either, but sometimes you just gotta laugh. Most storms DO do that so it wouldn't be as funny as you think. Now if most of SNE rained..then sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It gon snow! Still like my map thoughts. Always makes me feel like a kid! OT--just looked outside and saw the full moon rising over the fields freshly covered in snow--what an awesome sight that is. Back on topic, here's Albany's map. I like this a helluva lot more than the BOX one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 IMO, the falmouth/sandwich/marston's mills areas have huge positive bust potential...1"+ QPF & I could see that radar signature where there's that little circle of the interior lower cape just ripping with rain surrounding all sides That's considered upper cape. Some of those areas are around 250' in elevation which is why u sometimes see that on radar. Edit: saw you corrected it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Identical NWS forecasts for Holland, MA and Stafford, CT. One is WSW, the other, WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'm inclined to agree. OKX is going 37 here tomorrow. I'll be surprised if we're warmer than 34 when precip arrives. I don't see rain on the shoreline except maybe beaches in New London County. Maybe we warm enough that ratios are crap for a time which hurts totals. But I expect snow. 4-7" I'm going. Maybe more of lucky. Enjoy neighbor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Albany about to blow another forecast for here I think. How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Albany about to blow another forecast for here I think. They'll likely issue a WWA. You should only need about .3" liquid to reach advisory criteria. That is at or below current model consensus. You could even make an argument that it is reasonable to hoist a Watch for Litchfield if you considered .4 - .5" liquid with 15:1 ratios (prob too high) and the gradual but steady shift in QPF field to the NW. A watch reflects the possibility, not the likelihood. I think that argument would lose though. WWA for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This is from Albany's AFD. Any thoughts on this regarding ratios for SNE (or CNE per Matt Noyes' map)? TIA. DESPITE PASSING BY WELL TO THE SOUTH...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO THE REGION TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE... WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY TO GET UP TO 5 INCHES. HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE AND NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WITH TEMPS SO COLD (NO THREAT OF ANY MIXED PCPN)... WOULD EXPECT A FAIRLY HIGH SNOW TO WATER RATIO WITH THIS SNOWFALL... BUT MODELS INDICATE THAT FACTORS NEEDED TO PRODUCE GOOD DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WILL NOT BE IN THE OPTIMAL RANGE AND SNOW RATIOS MAY REMAIN IN THE 10/12 TO ONE RANGE RATHER 15 TO ONE OR MORE. THUS...DESPITE MODEL LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS RANGING FROM TWO TENTHS TO FOUR TENTHS...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Why? He's still hoping for that winter storm warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Always make me laugh when people get upset over WWA or WSW, I mean really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Ryan's boss new map 16Like · · Share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Why? forecasting 1-3, the last time they did that I got 7 though so it's all good. I think most of CT except for EXTREME NW CT is good for 2-5, more obviously as you go east. that and they refuse to issue a WWA for now. It worked out well last time though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Where the heck are the BOX snowfall maps??? I can't figure out the link! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Ryan's boss new map 16Like · · Share generous imho, but i'd take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 forecasting 1-3, the last time they did that I got 7 though so it's all good. I think most of CT except for EXTREME NW CT is good for 2-5, more obviously as you go east. Uh they have you in 2-4, whats the problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Uh they have you in 2-4, whats the problem? ah I was looking at the point-n-crap, not the map Saturday Snow, mainly after 11am. High near 30. Calm wind becoming northeast around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Saturday Night Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 21. Northwest wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation less than one half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 MPM the QPF junkie always looking for the next fix of QPF LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Where the heck are the BOX snowfall maps??? I can't figure out the link! Thanks! It's linked from the homepage with the lead-in line: "A developing storm will bring" http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 He's still hoping for that winter storm warning. funny, that winter storm warning would have verified the other night. how did you do the other night? 1" washed away by 36* rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Highest bust potential is the Cape. Models show the large deformation band just offshore of the Cape. Its very possible that, that band moves across the Cape Cod, MA area. Also its quite possible that we are rain throughout the entire storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Where the heck are the BOX snowfall maps??? I can't figure out the link! Thanks! http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Maybe we can start a separate thread for analysis / model disc. and use this as "banter"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 forecasting 1-3, the last time they did that I got 7 though so it's all good. I think most of CT except for EXTREME NW CT is good for 2-5, more obviously as you go east. that and they refuse to issue a WWA for now. It worked out well last time though Not sure what your WWA criteria is. Might be different than the rest of the state like warning criteria. Plus if they don't feel enough of the county will reach criteria, then they can't or won't issue it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Maybe we can start a separate thread for analysis / model disc. and use this as "banter"? Wow probably took me long enough to figure it out but never realized UKMET sounding were available at Plymouth State, colder and real nice omega on that crazy Unc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 funny, that winter storm warning would have verified the other night. how did you do the other night? 1" washed away by 36* rain? Actually I don't think the WSW would have verified, at least not the way they score it. Meeting criteria in one spot isn't enough to do it. Unless you can say for sure that at least half your county got 7 inches, then it was a good call by them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Not sure what your WWA criteria is. Might be different than the rest of the state like warning criteria. Plus if they don't feel enough of the county will reach criteria, then they can't or won't issue it. we'll see what happens, I don't actually care that much whether they have us into a WWA or not lol. Won't change what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It really is a shame the Pats don't play tomorrow. 4-7pm tomorrow should be rockin' in Foxboro. Sunday 4-7pm should be cold and in the 20s. Oh well. I like 4-7" first call here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 MPM the QPF junkie always looking for the next fix of QPF LOL QPF's a helluva drug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Maybe we can start a separate thread for analysis / model disc. and use this as "banter"? Well, we've only got 1.5 model runs to go, so perhaps we can continue with this until show time and then go straight to an observations thread. There won't be any analysis until the SREF/NAM this evening anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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