Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 going with 3-6" for my area. good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 interesting how gfs has BDR at 39 degrees at height of precipitation yes. this keeps being ignored. the GFS might very well be too warm. but it's awfully warm for most of SE MA/RI and S CT now too. i'm thinking it's probably overdone but it gives pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 AIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'll take my 2-5 and be quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 its going to be so close for most of CT whether they get into the good band or not.. I could easily see a gradient of 1 or 2" extreme NW to close to a foot interior eastern CT.. I think me to Steve is a good place to be in ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The 14" you had wasn't enough? I can't live in the past, Scott! My ZFP and P/C both have me as 3-5". I'm surprised that there's such a large coverage of light snowfall away from the system. I really would expect otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 yes. this keeps being ignored. the GFS might very well be too warm. but it's awfully warm for most of SE MA/RI and S CT now too. i'm thinking it's probably overdone but it gives pause. Of course. Ignore all things that dont give snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 yes. this keeps being ignored. the GFS might very well be too warm. but it's awfully warm for most of SE MA/RI and S CT now too. i'm thinking it's probably overdone but it gives pause. Interesting, Phil is this a BL only thing or are the ML's warming as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 BOX ends the WSW at the CT border but throws up a map throwing me a bone, sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 yes. this keeps being ignored. the GFS might very well be too warm. but it's awfully warm for most of SE MA/RI and S CT now too. i'm thinking it's probably overdone but it gives pause. When I get home I'm gonna have to really investigate. This is not a good sign on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think me to Steve is a good place to be in ct. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Well, OKX must be using the gfs thermals to an extent, they had 4 inches for this area this morning now even after the more robust data, they dropped us back to over 2 on that map, although the point and fail, WWA and HWO do not jive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 AS SUCH FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN INCREASED...WITH 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT 6 TO 8 INCHES OR POSSIBLY SOMEWHAT HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND RI EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. IT IS IN THIS AREA WHERE THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE THAT A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 yes. this keeps being ignored. the GFS might very well be too warm. but it's awfully warm for most of SE MA/RI and S CT now too. i'm thinking it's probably overdone but it gives pause. yes OKX does have lower totals for BDR which is right on water, not a realy indication of southern ct, but temp of 39 would really limit totals right on water, I mean GFS shows 29 for OXC (oxford) which is only 20 miles north.. so its not warm for everyone just the immediate shore.. something to worry about for immediate coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 There is still more NW movement in this folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 BOX ends the WSW at the CT border but throws up a map throwing me a bone, sweet Lol, as if the storm knows where state borders are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I did not realize every public met and our Govt mets ignored models that did not give snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 There is still more NW movement in this folks... Doubt that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Interesting, Phil is this a BL only thing or are the ML's warming as well? it's the lowest ~2000' or so. the euro is not nearly as mild but that's two runs in a row now that the GFS would be either 1. rain or 2. a nasty wet snow for a good period of time for parts of SNE that on other guidance are get a solid 6" of snow. i'm not sure what to make of it but the reason it bothers me is the lack of cold HP to our north. other than the low bombing out, there isn't a great mechanism to prevent the easterly flow from penetrating westward a bit more than we'd like. it may end up a nowcast kind of thing. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 BOX pm update: Congrats southern NE, glad for you. You all deserve it with how much effort you put in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The NWS has a WWA for 3-5" of snow here which seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 yes OKX does have lower totals for BDR which is right on water, not a realy indication of southern ct, but temp of 39 would really limit totals right on water, I mean GFS shows 29 for OXC (oxford) which is only 20 miles north.. so its not warm for everyone just the immediate shore.. something to worry about for immediate coast I could see BDR at maybe 34 but idk about 39. It'll be interesting. Winds should flip northerly though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I did not realize every public met and our Govt mets ignored models that did not give snow It's likely overdone, but something to watch for a person like me on the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 it's the lowest ~2000' or so. the euro is not nearly as mild but that's two runs in a row now that the GFS would be either 1. rain or 2. a nasty wet snow for a good period of time for parts of SNE that on other guidance are get a solid 6" of snow. i'm not sure what to make of it but the reason it bothers me is the lack of cold HP to our north. other than the low bombing out, there isn't a great mechanism to prevent the easterly flow from penetrating westward a bit more than we'd like. it may end up a nowcast kind of thing. we'll see. I think Plymouth county has more to worry about than southern CT but I don't like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Somebody post a sounding for SE CT please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 it's the lowest ~2000' or so. the euro is not nearly as mild but that's two runs in a row now that the GFS would be either 1. rain or 2. a nasty wet snow for a good period of time for parts of SNE that on other guidance are get a solid 6" of snow. i'm not sure what to make of it but the reason it bothers me is the lack of cold HP to our north. other than the low bombing out, there isn't a great mechanism to prevent the easterly flow from penetrating westward a bit more than we'd like. it may end up a nowcast kind of thing. we'll see. I honestly really never thought this would be an issue looking at other guidance earlier today, but living on the coast have seen it happen many times of course. If this area is more over running and we miss out on the dynamics with the coastal, we could easily rain. I think things will work out, especially since it does not seem like a mid level punch of warmth is in the mix, but OKX since this morning has certainly take notice. Thanks for your thoughts, lets hope the gfs is wrong, or at least some heavier precip overcomes bl issues and good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'm a little puzzled by the BOX WWA, forecast map, and ZFP. I'm flumoxed how GC could be forecasted 3-5 (zfp, p/c) yet Mt. Tolland zfp only has 4-6. That really doesn't show a gradient from their Watch area to here. You go from the Watch to CT and then it just hold steady from there. Something's wrong there I think. I expect I'll come in at the low end of my forecast and the eastern CT zones will bust postive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Somebody post a sounding for SE CT please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Having said that, in this part of Ct, with any northerly component to the wind I would feel fine, even ene blows over land. Nothing to do but sit back and enjoy it, Ridgefield to Shelton and east northeast to Stevie boy should be golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 BOX pm update: stupid anti-weenie 2-4 holes over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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