nzucker Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 People in Central NJ reporting heavy snow...just getting started up here in Westchester but 850 temps are down to -2C with surface temps right around freezing, dewpoints still in the 20s. Don't think the warm push is going to get as far north as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 People in Central NJ reporting heavy snow...just getting started up here in Westchester but 850 temps are down to -2C with surface temps right around freezing, dewpoints still in the 20s. Don't think the warm push is going to get as far north as modeled. It will warm aloft and as winds become more erly in the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Nice map Quincy. It's amazing how long we've known each other....since you're 14 I think. Now you've been a full fledged met for a few years already. Where does the time go...... Thanks. It's crazy how time flies. I remember some of my early forecasts and maps back at WW...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Looks like they did a little more tweaking further south It's gonna be close for us. We're right on the 8-10 to 14-18" on the east side of sebago. Wish we were in the new house on Tenney Hill for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Here are my thoughts. Moderate/high confidence, but biggest trouble zones are along the I-95 corridor and then once you get into central New England. The main focus is on Connecticut and the immediately adjacent areas. Posted this in the obs thread as well.... Not sure what to make of this--but the temps west of the CT river are decidedly cooler than those east of the river. You can see it more clearly and granularly if you zoom in or look at wundermaps. Probably was progged that way, but, to what degree does this impact what's going to happen later on with respect to the advance of warmer air? 26.9/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Here are my thoughts. Moderate/high confidence, but biggest trouble zones are along the I-95 corridor and then once you get into central New England. The main focus is on Connecticut and the immediately adjacent areas. Perfect map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 18z NAM looks...dare I say it...colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Looks like they did a little more tweaking further south rollercoaster of forecast totals from gyx for me hopefully it's locked it where it stands now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 NAM temps look about the same through 12 hours. EDIT: Higher thicknesses actually advect further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Drive fast , take chances And turn erratically. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 My daughters just texted to say it's snowing in Nyack, NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Light snow has begun here in downtown Greenwich CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I probably mix with pingers on this run. It is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It's gonna be close for us. We're right on the 8-10 to 14-18" on the east side of sebago. Wish we were in the new house on Tenney Hill for this. You will be riding from the door yard.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 rollercoaster of forecast totals from gyx for me hopefully it's locked it where it stands now Gonna be wild night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 30/14 I have a feeling this is going to overperform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 NAM continues torch mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I probably mix with pingers on this run. It is close. It's the NAM...wouldn't worry about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It's the NAM...wouldn't worry about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Seems to want to take the low right over ORH. WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Seems to want to take the low right over ORH. WTF? See post above...we have all agreed the NAM needs to be modified... Expect over-performer based on results from those south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 NAM has it pinging up to North Conway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Seems to want to take the low right over ORH. WTF? It is too bad that we do not have a decent snowpack in place for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 See post above...we have all agreed the NAM needs to be modified... Expect over-performer based on results from those south of us. it's not overperforming down here... will be lucky to get an inch before mixing happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Seems to want to take the low right over ORH. WTF? What a win for this model if it's anywhere close to being correct. Otherwise, I may never look at the NAM again. What did Ray call for his area? 4-8" or did he up it to 6-10"? I'm thinking a solid 3-6" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 See post above...we have all agreed the NAM needs to be modified... Expect over-performer based on results from those south of us. Probably but it's bad practice to let weenie goggles not put this solution into the back of your mind at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Are temps supposed to drop much with the low approaching? Sitting at 30.3F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Will said he and Ekster talked the other night and that GYX had done a recent study up there on the NAM and it's been running 5 degrees too warm on avg and its qpf and placement have been awful. They Said something is wrong with the model scheme right now and they are not using it, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Are temps supposed to drop much with the low approaching? Sitting at 30.3F What's your DP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 went from nothing to mod snow in minutes. just hope im far enough inland to stay snow for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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