Ji Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Not a good Gfs run at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 06Z GFS still likes the idea of getting some light accumulating snow into Baltimore and possibly DC just in time for Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Wow horrible. Now euro is more wintry than Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'll chalk up 6z to goofy run like last night 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Besides some initial frozen the GFS is warm, wet and west. Big jump from the off runs showing a suppressed solution recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 no solution is etched in stone so... enjoy the ride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 no solution is etched in stone so... enjoy the ride Considering there is still 5+ days before the storm it should be interesting to see how it does play out. I will say though it seems that the models are starting to converge on a solution of a track just to our west where the mountains and those to the north of us do very well in terms of snow and where we look to have a potential for a slop fest to a decent ice storm for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 6z gfs seems like the most reasonable solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The GFS ensemble mean is east of the op and suggest a much more wintery look for the region. But it looks as if there is a wide spread of solutions between its members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Hard to tell on Euro, limited access, limited convo, but sounds like it came our way a tad. GFS is a close call even on its good runs that it doesn't take much of a shift to put us on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Looks as though the 6z gfs matches the euro ensembles...track screams rain for most probably too eary on temps but........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'm pretty new and do not post much. Is this topic the xmas eve or post xmas storm? Looks like the post are refering to both. Like most of you, I have lived in the area all my life and just by viewing the maps you can tell if something just does not seem correct. I think the clipper system snow will mainly be confined above the mason dixon line but with some slushy dustings if you will to the south. Could be a nice surprise. As for a the post xmas system, the 6z GFS has a primary with no transfer to the coast. This is what looks odd. To highs to the north, I really believe the primary low will make it to the Tennessee/Kentucky area and then a low will form somewhere along the immediate coast of Va. Depending on how fast the primary low weakens will dictate the precip types in the area as will as dictating the new low strength. I can see this even appearing like a double barrel low for a period giving some areas a pretty good sleet storm. The CAD feature could be a prolonged event depending on how the tranfering of enegies evolve from one low to the next and seeing how the models handle the high pressures. I believe something similar to this would occure. At any rate, it will be fun to watch what happens, regardless of outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Hard to tell on Euro, limited access, limited convo, but sounds like it came our way a tad. GFS is a close call even on its good runs that it doesn't take much of a shift to put us on the edge. You're in a better spot than most closer to I-95 but every shift will affect you more one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 The Euro sure looks overdone.. usually happens somewhere in this range. GFS is whacked tho. Might be right but it never shows the same thing for more than 3 seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Might be time to see the sis and trixie in HGR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Might be time to see the sis and trixie in HGR should have never warned them now they have time to change the locks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'm pretty new and do not post much. Is this topic the xmas eve or post xmas storm? Looks like the post are refering to both. Like most of you, I have lived in the area all my life and just by viewing the maps you can tell if something just does not seem correct. I think the clipper system snow will mainly be confined above the mason dixon line but with some slushy dustings if you will to the south. Could be a nice surprise. As for a the post xmas system, the 6z GFS has a primary with no transfer to the coast. This is what looks odd. To highs to the north, I really believe the primary low will make it to the Tennessee/Kentucky area and then a low will form somewhere along the immediate coast of Va. Depending on how fast the primary low weakens will dictate the precip types in the area as will as dictating the new low strength. I can see this even appearing like a double barrel low for a period giving some areas a pretty good sleet storm. The CAD feature could be a prolonged event depending on how the tranfering of enegies evolve from one low to the next and seeing how the models handle the high pressures. I believe something similar to this would occure. At any rate, it will be fun to watch what happens, regardless of outcome. Agree. Tenessee would be better and further east I think. But some in the se thread think a miller A is on the table. I believe this will be a miller B and the primary will go futher north because the block is not crazy strong. I also think the CAD will hold longer than modeled as per usual. This is much better than tracking warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 6Z took a step in the wrong direction. The only sure thing right now is that there is no sure thing. Every model run is different. Although it does appear temps are going to be an issue for the xmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 GFS ensemble means look quite nice. Several members give us a predominately snow event. A few also still take the storm well west of the Apps (Cleveland-Buffalo) and a couple are surpressed off the SE coast. Still a lot of play here, but what's encouraging is almost every solution gives us (DC-Balt I-95 and points north/west) at least SOME freezing/frozen precip during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 6Z took a step in the wrong direction. The only sure thing right now is that there is no sure thing. Every model run is different. Although it does appear temps are going to be an issue for the xmas storm. Most, not all, but most of the GFS ens members have the Christmas eve precip as a marginal event, and the Chill storm as a significant winter event whether it be snow, sleet, freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Hard to tell on Euro, limited access, limited convo, but sounds like it came our way a tad. GFS is a close call even on its good runs that it doesn't take much of a shift to put us on the edge. the euro is a major storm for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 the euro is a major storm for you Christmas Eve or Chill storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I went to bed early last night but just went through all the runs. Heh, lotsa possibilities huh? Xmas wave looks so/so but that's totally cool. It's a bonus anyway. Vort track will determine everything so I'm not too concerned yet. 850's, surface, and thicknesses are awful close for the big cities. Won't take much to swing it one way or the other. FWIW- 6z NAM has a better look and track @ 500 for the xmas storm. I'm mostly going to pay attention to the ul's on the xmas event. It's awful small and not very strong so we need optimal track and any help we can get with strength. Early guess is a ground whitener near the big cities with the highest rates (don't appear to last long but who knows. Just a guess). Prime time storm sure looks tasty for someone. I'm a little nervous with the thread title. LOL. I'm put into the precarious position of being a hero or zero all because I liked something a gagillion hours out. But I've never hyped or weenied out and always said that it was a window for "some" form of winter precip. And it still most certainly is. No jump to the coast and we get ip/ice. That seems pretty obvious. Really nice 1030+ hp in a good spot in Canada. We all know what the NAM panels would look like if it was 48 hours out. The surface freezing line would be bending way down the blue ridge and that cold airmass would be real stubborn to get out of the way. Great N-NE surface flow with a strong high and we could get some nice ice in the burbs. Possible some early flakes too if the column is good but at this point an apps runner looks like ip/zr. I'll take it. It would be a fun event regardless. Some sort of hybrid storm is almost impossible to figure out until virtually nowcast time. Such little things mean so much. I'm not going to add a single detail irt a hybrid scenario that hasn't already been said in the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Not a good vort track for xmas. Goes through PA. We really need it to dig through at least central va to get some sort of accum snow. Still time. I haven't paid a ton of attention to the feature but it looks like the storm that just passed trough moves back west in canada allowing for a more northern track than we would like but like I said before, it's a pretty small feature so it's tough to judge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Not a good vort track for xmas. Goes through PA. We really need it to dig through at least central va to get some sort of accum snow. Still time. I haven't paid a ton of attention to the feature but it looks like the storm that just passed trough moves back west in canada allowing for a more northern track than we would like but like I said before, it's a pretty small feature so it's tough to judge. yeah...it's a miss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 the 12/26 storm is definitely going well west...but it is so far weak enough that it may not kill our chances for something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Not a good vort track for xmas. Goes through PA. We really need it to dig through at least central va to get some sort of accum snow. Still time. I haven't paid a ton of attention to the feature but it looks like the storm that just passed trough moves back west in canada allowing for a more northern track than we would like but like I said before, it's a pretty small feature so it's tough to judge. which likely means storm 2 is further north/west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Following storm looks flatter, but I'm not even going to try to guess what that eventually means. Colder than 06z before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Not a good vort track for xmas. Goes through PA. We really need it to dig through at least central va to get some sort of accum snow. Still time. I haven't paid a ton of attention to the feature but it looks like the storm that just passed trough moves back west in canada allowing for a more northern track than we would like but like I said before, it's a pretty small feature so it's tough to judge. Storm seems drier too compared to last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Following storm looks flatter, but I'm not even going to try to guess what that eventually means. Colder than 06z before the storm. that ridge in Canada was really pressing south through at least 108 hrs which gives me some hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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