CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yeah it does have that look. It does look like something gets close to closing off at 700mb to our south. It's weak but it's probably enough to develop enough deformation on the NW side. These are the kinds of setups that can do funky things with snow growth etc. Once we lock in a track we should have a better idea if this will be a 2-4 kinda deal or a 4-8 kinda thing with some good snow growth in that deformation band. 2" would make it one of my biggest storms since Feb 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 2" would make it one of my biggest storms since Feb 2011. That's sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Snowiest and driest November on record for BDL? how much QPF has fallen as rain vs snow in November? Must be more snow than rain right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Snowiest and driest November on record for BDL? That's not going to happen. Just realized they only have 2.5" from the storm earlier this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Snowiest and driest November on record for BDL? That's a classic situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 does not look overly impressive to me. kind of a sheared out mess. i'd set expectations low for this. bl issues if precip does not come down hard enough. About the only way I can get snow this time of year down here is in these unimpressive situations. I think it was 03 or 04 where we had 3-5" down here before thanksgiving with a weak system out underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I was wondering if this might be more a cne and SNE deal but if you post that A few folks up north get upset. Still time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 About the only way I can get snow this time of year down here is in these unimpressive situations. I think it was 03 or 04 where we had 3-5" down here before thanksgiving with a weak system out underneath. 11/12/04. You were all lover that one and bulls eyed snow the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 12z GGEM is a nice shift NW from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Canadian looks pretty good for SNE, but looks like a sharp cut-off around MHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 You do get the feeling that this winter will deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 52 year anniversary storm 12/12 on gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 You get a little snow this run, but it's still a bit early. We don't even have it inside d3 yet and we just had a huge Euro shift. The models are all over the place with these pieces. it looks like the gfs came into line with the euro... it was more amplified on the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 it looks like the gfs came into line with the euro... it was more amplified on the 00z run How many miles did the Euro shift in its last run? Has anything shown decent run-to-run consistency yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Lock it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Canadian looks pretty good for SNE, but looks like a sharp cut-off around MHT. Get used to it. Lol. If SNE posters are really happy, we won't be. It's how it works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Get used to it. Lol. If SNE posters are really happy, we won't be. It's how it works Pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Get used to it. Lol. If SNE posters are really happy, we won't be. It's how it works Maybe for Lyndon that's true. 00z gfs last night would make a lot of people happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Maybe for Lyndon that's true. 00z gfs last night would make a lot of people happy. It's most likely the same for Plymouth granted its only 70 miles from Lyndon...lol But yeah most people off the coast would take the 0z and 6z gfs and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Get used to it. Lol. If SNE posters are really happy, we won't be. It's how it works I can name a few folks in SNE who are not terribly excited with these tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Get used to it. Lol. If SNE posters are really happy, we won't be. It's how it works Same thing for us HV folks in NYC Metro forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I can name a few folks in SNE who are not terribly excited with these tracks. If I was still home in CT for Wednesday I sure wouldn't be happy lol I'd flip pretty early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Any word on the GFS ensembles? Hopefully I can get some uplifing news from there before I head out to cut--and perhaps enjoy few weenie flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 The NAM initialized the vorticity maximum that as of 12z was very near 55N/165W, somewhere in the neighborhood of 500naut miles NNE. That's a pretty significant error - it is interesting that NCEP doesn't believe that error significantly impacts the model forecast, based upon their diagnostic discussion. Having the vort max actually being SSW of the model initialization means that it is quite possible more jet dynamics will get absorbed into the main polar branch of the westerlies over the next 60 hours of complex stream interactivity that is noted across the N-E Pac domain. That interaction is much more than median mass of correction concern regarding what eventually transpires over the eastern U.S. Not that it means much for determinism due to the model's known bias of pretty much sucking at all times, the 00z NOGAPs was an exercise in how near perfect phasing can work with comparatively weaker leading systems in the flow, to produce a major outcome. Sometimes, but not every time, when the "GONAPs" model sees amplitude in the middle range, when the others don't, things correct interestingly. The NOGAPs has a standing native bias of being too progressive ... the thinking there being, the NOGAPs overcomes its own native bias in getting to a more amplified solution than the models that typically are more amplified, might just signal that something is going on. This has worked in the past several times - though it says nothing about getting to a solution that fits with snow vs rain or whatever; just that more amplitude shouldn't be dismissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Any word on the GFS ensembles? Hopefully I can get some uplifing news from there before I head out to cut--and perhaps enjoy few weenie flakes. only out to hr 78, You wont like it low tracks SE of 40/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 only out to hr 78, You wont like it low tracks SE of 40/70 Just SE of the BM at 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Looks like just east of BM in GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Just SE of the BM at 90 No good though, We need more NNE not a ENE track being that far SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 only out to hr 78, You wont like it low tracks SE of 40/70 Yeah...way SE of 6z. Looks alright for SENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 good track, SE another 50 miles and it's perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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