Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,514
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    EWR757
    Newest Member
    EWR757
    Joined

November 27th - 28th Snow Potential


Ice Warrior commander

Recommended Posts

So you're Tweet yesterday that I had busted and your FB post that I had a meltdown because of no snow or storm and torch next weekend on jerry's bday didn't happen?

Or the tweet yesterday about it looking unlikely that there will be snow next week..

Or the 18z GFS post yesterday?

those were just jokes right?

It's your and not you're. But I'm not surprised to see this happen but overall my forecast has been pretty good. Potential for a storm is there but it wasn't a lock either way. Not sure you could really say anything more than that up through today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Enjoy the snow on Tuesday SNE!

1.25" last 90 minutes in upslope squalls.

Funny thing is I got on the chairlift this morning...and by chance it ended up being Cpick that got on with me lol.

Thats so cool, Pickles is great peeps, LOl on your MPM type angst lately, enjoy the upslope bro, you will be rocking most of this week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I suppose it could go SE a little more, but I like where I sit.

If you look atwhere the vortmax tracks, it is great for SNE. Hopefully it doesn't go back SE, but usually once these systems start nudging north on guidance inside of 96 hours, you usually see that trend continue.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you look atwhere the vortmax tracks, it is great for SNE. Hopefully it doesn't go back SE, but usually once these systems start nudging north on guidance inside of 96 hours, you usually see that trend continue.

Yeah I do like that vortmax track and although I did not say it...it appears the mid level banding potential gets to ORH-BOS line. I just got into work, but it may be a little while before I can fire up the euro maps.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This makes me laugh - hahaha oy vay CISCO has always been the best salaried troll out there

AS PER COORDINATION WITH THE SHORT RANGE DESK, SQUASHED THE DAY

3/3.5 PRIMARY SURFACE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE UPDATE PACKAGE TO

EMPHASIZE THE COLLECTIVE TREND TOWARD GIVING MORE CREDIT TO THE

TRAILING SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE EAST. THIS ADJUSTMENT, AS PER THE

TREND ACROSS THE BOARD IN THE 12Z/24 MODELS, SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES

THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR NEW YORK STATE AND

CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY

WHETHER THE REGION FROM PHILADELPHIA TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

COULD SEE A QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE LIMITING FACTOR

THERE WOULD BE THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE REGION- RELATED TO THE

TIMING OF THE IMPULSE.

CISCO

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This makes me laugh - hahaha oy vay CISCO has always been the best salaried troll out there

AS PER COORDINATION WITH THE SHORT RANGE DESK, SQUASHED THE DAY

3/3.5 PRIMARY SURFACE LOW SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE UPDATE PACKAGE TO

EMPHASIZE THE COLLECTIVE TREND TOWARD GIVING MORE CREDIT TO THE

TRAILING SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE EAST. THIS ADJUSTMENT, AS PER THE

TREND ACROSS THE BOARD IN THE 12Z/24 MODELS, SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES

THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR NEW YORK STATE AND

CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY

WHETHER THE REGION FROM PHILADELPHIA TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND

COULD SEE A QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE LIMITING FACTOR

THERE WOULD BE THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE REGION- RELATED TO THE

TIMING OF THE IMPULSE.

CISCO

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah I do like that vortmax track and although I did not say it...it appears the mid level banding potential gets to ORH-BOS line. I just got into work, but it may be a little while before I can fire up the euro maps.

Yeah in these SWFE we often see that nice mid-level fronto band set up well north of the model QPF. Its like when dendrite used to get 8" of snow in events like 12/19/08 when the modeled QPF was 0.30" up there.

We'll have to watch and see if that vortmax comes in stronger tonight when it is sampled coming onshore.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mike..you're fine up there., We know how the qpf fields are always undermodelled and that fronto band always ends up 50-100 miles north. How many times have we seen this? The one time you got burned was Nov 7

I wouldn't get his hopes up. This is not a great set up for NW MA. I could see you up through orh doing great while we watch hours of heavy virga.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mike..you're fine up there., We know how the qpf fields are always undermodelled and that fronto band always ends up 50-100 miles north. How many times have we seen this? The one time you got burned was Nov 7

I did better in the last hour than I did on November 7-8. Sure will be a chilly one tonight.

Down to 33.7/18, with a top gust of 31mph over the past hour.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If this can have modest deepening, I may have pytpe issues to start...but probably would flip to SN with a nice freeze potential.

there's definite issues with that for this region but i'd think you'd probably be OK like you said after any short-lived issues to start. Euro has 00z surface temp in BOS of basically 0C and plenty cold off the deck.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...