CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yeah that's pretty flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 18z GFS....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Will, I think it's 2004 you are talking about. 2004 had that good snow event but it was a warm November. We had a huge torch for like a week after that storm. 2005 really doesn't qualify either. 2002 was the last true wintry November with both cold and snow. '07 and '08 were cold but not much if any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 That's a big change at H5 in 6 hrs. It lost the vortmax that the 12z had over IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 What a holiday spirit this year. Having cold and snow makes it do much more special, last year was brutal, what a Festivus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Even by 84 hours, its a strung out mess. Definitely an outlier even compared to other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Some of those previous winters that had cold/snowy Novembers....winter ended in January, lol. Its difficult to go wire to wire. Yeah, even up here it can't go Nov-March without some sort of awful month or something mixed in there. I guess 2000-2001 might have, but that's why that winter is legendary up here. But even that one didn't really get going until the New Year's nor'easter, I think. Getting a solid 4 month period of good snow/cold is pretty darn hard. Even out in the western U.S. where it snows 500 inches a year, they usually have a rough month mixed in there somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 lol the GFS just burped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 That's a big change at H5 in 6 hrs. It lost the vortmax that the 12z had over IL. Yeah that's the whole key. We need that vortmax to focus the baroclinicity. We'll see how the ensembles look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yeah that's the whole key. We need that vortmax to focus the baroclinicity. We'll see how the ensembles look. Seems a little weird to me, but yeah we'll see what the ensembles do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 That piece of trash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Then it tries to NORLUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 lol the GFS just burped. It puked all over itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Man, it has a really intense NORLUN trough just barely offshore, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 USCAPEWEATHERAF gets his squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Absolute dung Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 It puked all over itself It's run to run consistency is just embarrassing, granted the handling of the s/w is very difficult. The Euro has seen northward/southward shifts, but not to the extent of the GFS...0z had a full blown snowstorm for many and now 18 hours later its gone for everyone. I'm interested to see what the ensembles have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Congrats on the jackpotting from a NORLUN, Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 18z is an off run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 It's run to run consistency is just embarrassing, granted the handling of the s/w is very difficult. The Euro has seen northward/southward shifts, but not to the extent of the GFS...0z had a full blown snowstorm for many and now 18 hours later its gone for everyone. I'm interested to see what the ensembles have to say. Yup toss it, This op run is garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Congrats on the jackpotting from a NORLUN, Phil. That's an intense NORLUN just east of PVC too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 That's an intense NORLUN just east of PVC too. No kidding, if that made it on shore, someone would get like 10" from it probably. Oh well, this run is probably not correct given the other guidance. But all options are still on the table...except probably an inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 That's an intense NORLUN just east of PVC too. From a miss to 6-12 on air in 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 No kidding, if that made it on shore, someone would get like 10" from it probably. Oh well, this run is probably not correct given the other guidance. But all options are still on the table...except probably an inland runner. Yeah I think that's a fair assessment. While I think odds favor an advisory snowfall somewhere in SNE it's possible we do get a strung out POS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Pretty unstable PVC sounding in that thing...just for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 From a miss to 6-12 on air in 24 hours Miss? That's not what I had yesterday. I showed 2 possible solutions... one OTS and one that was stronger and closer. Obviously the stronger/closer/snowier option has become likely but the OTS solution isn't off the table either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Miss? That's not what I had yesterday. I showed 2 possible solutions... one OTS and one that was stronger and closer. Obviously the stronger/closer/snowier option has become likely but the OTS solution isn't off the table either. I believe it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Congrats Scooter on flipping to a paste blizzard extrapolating the NAM out another 2 panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 BTW .. I got a new Garmin GPS for my truck as a gift for my bday and it has my elevation at 1001 feet. My iPhone has it at 986 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I believe it is. Why are you on his case? He has been pretty consistent in his forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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