Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The 3ft surge in Stamford is very concerning to me. The Monday AM high tide around 11:30 a.m. is only for3ecast to have a surge near 4.4ft. I think we may do better than that and actually exceed Irene levels during the morning! very much so that 5.8 IKE surge value is scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The 3ft surge in Stamford is very concerning to me. The Monday AM high tide around 11:30 a.m. is only for3ecast to have a surge near 4.4ft. I think we may do better than that and actually exceed Irene levels during the morning! I have a hard time seeing how water doesn't stay piled up overnight with NE flow pinning it in the sound. Something the surge models most definitely aren't accounting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 I know you had mentioned the state of the center of circulation being more oval like (the hurricane hunters have also reported an elliptical eye), and that can lead to more wobbling just due to the asymmetric nature. Yeah sometimes you get that weird dumbelling kind of motion. You have folks down on the bay in RI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Wow, that's an interesting map Will. That's about 1/2 mile up? What would surface maps look like at the same time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 Pretty cool orographic enhancement will occur over ORH hills. 90kts will do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Pretty cool orographic enhancement will occur over ORH hills. 90kts will do that. Of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Yeah sometimes you get that weird dumbelling kind of motion. You have folks down on the bay in RI? In Barrington, luckily out of the flood zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Wow, that's an interesting map Will. That's about 1/2 mile up? What would surface maps look like at the same time? My ignorance here, but if that is 950mb, won't that be closer to 1000 feet or so? 925 is 2500 ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 actually, at these pressures, you're probably right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 In Barrington, luckily out of the flood zones. My mom's house is in a Zone B, the neighbor across the street is zone A... in Jamestown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 actually, at these pressures, you're probably right! The last cane I experienced was Bob while living on Sarah Ave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 My ignorance here, but if that is 950mb, won't that be closer to 1000 feet or so? 925 is 2500 ft If the sfc pressure is 960 mb, 950 mb won't be too far from the sfc! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Heh, I lived pretty close by for Bob too, about 16' above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 My ignorance here, but if that is 950mb, won't that be closer to 1000 feet or so? 925 is 2500 ft Yeah....that'll be about 1000ft AGL for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Wow, that's an interesting map Will. That's about 1/2 mile up? What would surface maps look like at the same time? 950mb is about 900 feet up at 21z tomorrow in BOS...that's whats so impressive about it. I don't think I've ever seen forecast soundings this impressive for wind in SNE since I've been forecasting. The December 23-24, 1994 soundings are pretty close to these out on the Cape...but not further west in E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 My ignorance here, but if that is 950mb, won't that be closer to 1000 feet or so? 925 is 2500 ft Given the extreme low pressures.. down here at least... 950mb is not much over 500 feet. 613 feet to be exact at Groton. That's one of the reasons the 950mb winds are stronger up north I think.. 950mb down on LI is practically the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Significant high tide right now, will try to get some photos but it's pretty ugly. Going to get much worse with the morning tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 What do folks think the situation will be driving across ct on 84 down across the Tappan Zee tomorrow between 7:00am an 10:00? Not a wise idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Little south from earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 What do folks think the situation will be driving across ct on 84 down across the Tappan Zee tomorrow between 7:00am an 10:00? Not a wise idea? You should be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Little south from earlier? I'm good with that, keep going south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Little south from earlier? Shows you how strange things have become; looking at that, you'd think LI dodges the bullet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Significant high tide right now, will try to get some photos but it's pretty ugly. Going to get much worse with the morning tide. The tide this evening here got up to the boardwalk already. Going to be horrendous tomorrow, I agree. Landfall looks to be just prior to our high tide (ours is around 8PM-8:30). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Little south from earlier? They just narrowed the cone. I don't think a NYC or LI landfall is shown by any model and it hasn't been for a few cycles now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2012 Author Share Posted October 29, 2012 That's the same track as 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summerthyme Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Schools closed here in Dedham along with what seems to be most other schools in the state. I could see winds gusting to 55mph here maybe but I'm not sure if that forecast constitutes shutting down school. I guess time will tell and I've got flashlights and some water so If it somehow rips through here worse than I'm expecting, we'll be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 This is a sickening cross section...00z NAM for CHH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 davis wv, currently 35/35 at 4k can't wait to see snow pics over 2500' in wv/wmd/va/nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 outer bands showing up on the lr radar. :> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 We're having a crew come from Indy, FL, and SFO. Lots of cancellations but one person's flight was moved up to arrive at 830AM. I think that's a low likelihood unless they can turn the plane around quickly. Just had an hour walk with the dog. My wife says it was windier prior and my theory is that while the storm was further SW the gradient NE-SW was stronger but now she's still heading NE and not until it turns back will winds increase. Right? Strange to have a hurricance preceeded by cool raw conditions. My wife picked up a pile of leaves while I was in Phoenix......feeling guilty but not too much. lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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