Allsnow Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Wow 946 85mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Good morning folks. Very very quiet down here about 5 miles off the sound. A little breezy but really nothing to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 It's just about to hit that belt of >27C SST's with the Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Might head back with this southern track just don't see the surge being as high as we feared yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 It's just about to hit that belt of >27C SST's with the Gulf Stream. I wonder if we will continued to see slight strengthening while it roams over this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Air Force reacon reports that the eye is 28-miles wide! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 000 URNT12 KNHC 290857 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 29/08:25:40Z B. 35 deg 48 min N 070 deg 33 min W C. 700 mb 2613 m D. 79 kt E. 229 deg 88 nm F. 266 deg 86 kt G. 229 deg 128 nm H. 947 mb I. 6 C / 3049 m J. 14 C / 3048 m K. 10 C / NA L. OPEN NE-SW M. C24 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF302 2318A SANDY OB 09 MAX FL WIND 86 KT SW QUAD 07:52:30Z MAX FL TEMP 15 C 219 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Wow... Recon has found a very small area of surface winds as high as 91 mph, so the official 85 mph may even be conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I don't really think a 30 or 40 mile shift south is gonna mean much in the overall scheme of things. Might head back with this southern track just don't see the surge being as high as we feared yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I don't really think a 30 or 40 mile shift south is gonna mean much in the overall scheme of things. I agree. Surge forecasts are already running a foot too low in the sound, and that will only be exacerbated over the next two tide cycles. It's still a prime angle of approach for unprecedented flooding in and around NYC despite the slight shift south in the official track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I don't really think a 30 or 40 mile shift south is gonna mean much in the overall scheme of things. I hope he's kidding. #1 there is no more southern track..it's going into Central Jersey #2 his area is going to flood like never before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I hope he's kidding. #1 there is no more southern track..it's going into Central Jersey #2 his area is going to flood like never before I still agree here. Not buying that southern NJ landfall. Really have to watch closely for where she makes landfall exactly b/c for the CT coast at least a more north landfall could mean the difference between 40-50 mph sustained winds with gusts to 80 mph and 50-60...even 65 mph sustained winds and gusts as high as 90 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Track is clearly into southern jersey and would not rule out northern Delaware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Track is clearly into southern jersey and would not rule out northern Delaware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Did a quick 5 miler..couple obs 1)Trees 98% bare. Just random straggler Oaks and those hideous yellow Norweigen maples 2)There was sporadic light/moderate upslope sheet drizzle while the moon was visible at times 3)It was noticeably windier 800 feet and above and esp from 900 feet and above up to my house. I ran down to 650 feet. 4) We've totally changed the global and hemispheric pattern..The warm pattern is done and we can partially thank Sandy for it. We're heading into a long,extended period of below to well below normal temps 5)Good luck today to everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 With the 946mb pressure this is now tied with the Hurricane of 1938 for lowest pressure north of Cape Hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 NHC is wrong? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1812W5_NL+gif/204249W5_NL_sm.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Crank up the heat in your homes to 75 to keep the warmth in once you lose power..If it's out for 1-2 weeks..trap all the warmth in you can with the cold pattern ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 NHC is wrong? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1812W5_NL+gif/204249W5_NL_sm.gif Track looks solid to me this block is impressive. I think we can see a glimmer of hope....hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 For Giuseppe(LL)..GET OUT!! From one of Ryan's bosses Bob Maxon @bobmaxon Nothing good to report this morning. Sandy has strengthened and everything else is status quo. Serious weather event this PM and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 NHC is wrong? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1812W5_NL+gif/204249W5_NL_sm.gif Track looks solid to me this block is impressive. I think we can see a glimmer of hope....hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 NHC is wrong? http://www.nhc.noaa....249W5_NL_sm.gif There are a quite a few people I've talked to who aren't buying that southern solution either. This is just such a weird situation so really nothing can be discounted here...you would have to think it'd be really difficult to see the system just get tugged completely west like that but who knows really. Just have to watch when it starts to make that more westerly move and go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 WSJweather (Eric Holthaus) Air Force hurricane hunters have just completed their second pass this a.m through #Sandy. Tentatively, pressure has dropped further: ~942mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Holy moly, 942! I guess it has made it to the gulf stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Pressure is 942mb.. We may be looking at 935 LF..Dear Lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Holy moly, 942! I guess it has made it to the gulf stream. I really wonder if somewhere in the 930's at the lowest is possible...once the phasing takes place and the system bombs out even more the pressure should drop even more and probably just as rapidly. One thing that's always been in the back of my mind is if this could end up being even worse than what we think...who knows really...we've never seen anything like this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Wow, I mentioned a few days ago that the models were definitely not overdoing their deepening and that 940mb was certainly possible...I didn't think I was being conservative when I said that! That's what can happen when you have 4 jet streaks favorable for UVM, along with entering the Gulf Stream. Ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 941.8 for pressure to be exact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Wow, I mentioned a few days ago that the models were definitely not overdoing their deepening and that 940mb was certainly possible...I didn't think I was being conservative when I said that! That's what can happen when you have 4 jet streaks favorable for UVM, along with entering the Gulf Stream. Ridiculous. Who really knows what's going to happen form here...the longer the core stays over the Gulf Stream the more this will continue to intensify and remain fully tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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