moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I think 11-12 foot Battery west to Raritan Bay. That's incredible. Will the sound surge actually get into Coop City (what a beautiful sounding place)? That's pretty low-lying right near the sound isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I think 11-12 foot Battery west to Raritan Bay. Yikes, my parents live on the Raritan Bay. Hope everyone stays safe up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Just out of curiosity - with the different categories there are in the saffir simpson scale, what are the different storm surge probablities associated per category? It's more complicated than that, since storm surge also depends strongly on the size and fetch of a storm, tides and many other factors in addition to intensity, which is why Ike in 2008, although only a Category 2 at landfall, had storm surge rivaling many Category 4/5 storms. Katrina was also a very large storm, and it was a Category 5 shortly prior to making landfall as a Category 3, thus you had an extremely large storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 CO-OP city is a real **** hole. They are near Eastchester Bay, and it will probably flood out. LOL I was gonna say the same thing. Co-op city is not that nice of a place though there is that shopping plaza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JulieRI Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 There is no cut and dry category to surge level comparison. I was just commenting with a friend how I don't like the inundation maps the various states have out there because they associate areas flooded to category rather than water level. After all water level is the only thing that matters. We can all but guarantee that Sandy will be for all intents and purposes a category 1 at landfall but carry a surge much greater than that due to the nearly perfect angle of approach. Where is the "like" button. Water is already high in Watch Hill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 A friend of mine lives on Bay ridge in Brookyln two blocks from the water. she is staying at her job which is the new arena they built for the Nets. She just moved there from West Hartford a few months ago too...she's pretty worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Where is the "like" button. Water is already high in Watch Hill I wonder if the Bay winds up in my mom's house? Could be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 That's incredible. Will the sound surge actually get into Coop City (what a beautiful sounding place)? That's pretty low-lying right near the sound isn't it? Its on a back Bay they will be flooding; also up thru Rye, New Rochelle, Mamaronack , Fort Slocum A good chunk of the East and Southeast Bronx will flood too: City Island, Westchester Bay, Clason Point, Castle Hill, Hunts Point, Throggs Neck SUNY Maritime academy area CO-OP city is a real **** hole. They are near Eastchester Bay, and it will probably flood out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Westfarms Mall is closed for tomorrow...no work for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I ate at a Checkers restaurant in CO-OP one time, good burgers, sketchy people. Anyway a shift to the north in the LF of this storm would prove even worse for the Shoreline or no? Plus wouldn't a faster forward speed add to those 70-90 mph gusts? If the storm went further east and landfall was further north...the surge in LI sound would probably be slightly less than a landfall in C NJ. It would be worse, however, in Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay and the south coast of RI. Also probably worse for E MA areas, like the south shore communities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 December 1992 had like a 10 foot surge in LI sound...12 feet would be catastrophic. The surge wasn't close to that in Long Island Sound. The 12/92 peak surge was 5.9ft at Kings Point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The surge wasn't close to that in Long Island Sound. The 12/92 peak surge was 5.9ft at Kings Point. Willets Point, Cold Spring Harbor, and Mill Neck on the north shore of western LI all saw surges in excess of 10 feet. Wasn't Bridgeport also in excess of 10 feet above NGVD in December 1992? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammerz_nailz Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Good luck hope you weather the storm! Just saw possible surge @ Bridgeport now 13-14 feet? Do you have a link for that? http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/etsurge/ I am reading that as a possible 5.5 foot surge above astronomical high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The surge wasn't close to that in Long Island Sound. The 12/92 peak surge was 5.9ft at Kings Point. Kings Point is on the North Shore. It was higher on the northside of the sound CT to Bronx. The runway at LGA that heads out the sound had water on it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I am reading that as a possible 5.5 foot surge above astronomical high tide. True but the height of the water could be near 13ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Recon just found 98kt 102kt flight level winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 True but the height of the water could be near 13ft That is a very, very scary thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Recon just found 98kt flight level winds Any pressure updates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Any pressure updates? Not yet....those flight level winds were in the SW quad, well removed from the center....next pass probably in 20 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Wonder how much of this will mix down!! 010330 3231N 07250W 6971 02902 9819 +062 -029 285098 102 045 006 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammerz_nailz Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 True but the height of the water could be near 13ft About 10 feet above mean sea level plus wave height of coarse ... potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 ISP/LGA - 36 knots. JFK - 38 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Willets Point, Cold Spring Harbor, and Mill Neck on the north shore of western LI all saw surges in excess of 10 feet. Wasn't Bridgeport also in excess of 10 feet above NGVD in December 1992? No, Bridgeport was 4.3 ft above astro. I don't know where you got those numbers for those 3 locations... but you may be looking at storm tide and not surge. Kings Point was quite vulnerable and they were "only" 5.9 ft. Not surprised that Willets Point was higher... but 10ft surges were likely quite isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 No, Bridgeport was 4.3 ft above astro. I don't know where you got those numbers for those 3 locations... but you may be looking at storm tide and not surge. Kings Point was quite vulnerable and they were "only" 5.9 ft. Not surprised that Willets Point was higher... but 10ft surges were likely quite isolated. This is where the confysuion arises...ultimate where the water gets up too is all that matters...the surge is an additive component to the storm tide and ultimately this is what people will see. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 50% reduction from FL to Sfc right now...wow. Guess that 102kt fl wind measurement isnt that scary lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Towners Wx Page @townerswxpage uh oh RT @MattNoyesNECN: RT @ryan_wichman: Wow, Hurricane Hunters report founding 108 mph winds just below 10,000 feet: http://bit.ly/Sm2DJZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 No, Bridgeport was 4.3 ft above astro. I don't know where you got those numbers for those 3 locations... but you may be looking at storm tide and not surge. Kings Point would have been most vulnerable and they were "only" 5.9 ft. My numbers were height above NGVD. Not astro tide. So I suppose I was referring to storm tide. If that is the case and they are truly expecting a 10 foot surge, and not storm tide...then that would destroy all the records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammerz_nailz Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 This is where the confysuion arises...ultimate where the water gets up too is all that matters...the surge is an additive component to the storm tide and ultimately this is what people will see. No? High tide + surge = storm tide (what people ultimately see ..I think) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 50% reduction from FL to Sfc right now...wow. Guess that 102kt fl wind measurement isnt that scary lol Its probably closer to a 70% reduction thus 70kts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Courtesy of SRAIN Live report from NOAA P-3 outbound reporting 70kt surface/100kt flight level 175 miles SW of center while heading back to Mac Dill. Report stated wind field expanding as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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