bobbutts Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Storm SANDY: Observed By NOAA #2 Storm #18 in Atlantic Ocean Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 59KT (67.8mph 109.3km/h) In S Quadrant At 22:06:03Z Estimated Max Surface Winds 53.1KT (61.1mph 98.3km/h) * Date/Time of Recon Report: Sun Oct 28 2012 18:17:00 GMT-0400 (Eastern Daylight Time) (Sun, 28 Oct 2012 22:17:00 GMT) Position of the center: 33° 36' N 071° 16' W (33.6°N 71.3°W) [See Map] Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 51KT (58.65MPH 94.5km/h) Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 19nm (21.85miles) From Center At Bearing 184° Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 59KT (67.85mph 109.3km/h) From 264° Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 46nm (52.9 miles) From Center At Bearing 182° Minimum pressure: 951mb (28.08in) Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN SE Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Elliptical , E15/30/20 Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Southern MA and Narragansett bay may be in trouble too tomorrow night. The GFS has much stronger winds further from the center than some other models do and I actually would believe the GFS...the size of the wind fields is like nothing we've ever seen and looking at the wind map that was posted a few pages back from the NHC page with how far from the center TS winds are I think the GFS has validity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Southern MA and Narragansett bay may be in trouble too tomorrow night. The forecast at Conimicut Light is 10.4', that's almost 3' higher than Irene and there were water issues then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 CT Blizz was mentioning use of moon in forecasting ... actually, not the case for me, but I believe that lunar-atmospheric interactions are a part of the cause and effect that brings us weather events. As it happens, I forecast from model guidance and a little bit of input from research model, but in this case, I am basing wind speed forecasts on the basic assumption that this storm will be effectively mixing down, nothing much more complex than that, plus climatological analogues. While people are commenting frequently that they regard the storm as unprecedented, I think we've seen similar strength lows in Newfoundland and the British Isles a few times in history and they always produce very strong wind gusts (meaning over 100 mph) and not just in quirky locations such as Wreckhouse where there is additional channelling due to terrain. Hey, I hope it doesn't hit 90 or 100 or 110 mph in gusts anywhere that people live, but I think it could. We'll find out soon enough. The tidal surge is obviously the biggest threat to life and property and that I believe is being handled as well as possible. Good luck to you all and I hope the damage is limited. I feel rather sick to the stomach about NJ and L.I. potentials and hope this isn't as bad as it perhaps could be. If the central pressure were to sink below 945 mbs, then we're talking off the scale impacts, unless this does so many cancelling out things at once. Minor point but I would imagine there will be at least minor earthquake activity during the storm cycle in some part of eastern Canada or northeast U.S. in response to the unusual stresses on the crust, I'm not saying big earthquake, just recalling that there was a moderate shaker that hit during the Dec 9-11 1992 storm (in NB Canada). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Can't say I'm surprised considering the synoptic history as portrayed by the models going back over a week, what appeared ominous back then, and persisted... That said, it's still amazing to open an NWS discussion for a warning statement and have the headline read "...LIFE THREATENING COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING..."; then have a bullet statement talk about 11ft storm surge coming into the NY Bite and the western end of the LI Sound. Just ...no words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Southern MA and Narragansett bay may be in trouble too tomorrow night. Yeah, it's the high tide tomorrow night after the wind has come around to the SSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 BUFKIT even brings TS force sustained to ORH around 21z tomorrow. If that happens, there is definitely potential for 70mph gusts. 80 knots sustained at 900mb will bring some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Scott - are you saying winds won't be that bad then? I am confused. I thought my area was in for strong winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'm little surprised some of the school districts up here have already called off tomorrow. Umass, Smith, Amherst College all closed. I guess they are erroring on the side of caution. Getting a little breezier here up in the tree tops. From the E, maybe 10mph or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StallionRx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Thanks. What part of Fairfield are you located? Im less than a mile from LI sound and have a large bay in my backyard that fills up quite a bit at high tide. Just curious if I should be concerned about flooding. Im pretty much between jennings and st marys, but on the the northern side of US 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Ryan Breton @AtkinsonWeather Check out the NAM model at 5pm tomorrow - widespread gusts of 70 mph inland, 80 mph at the coast. pic.twitter.com/HLAMJgTN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I will say this. Kevin will have a stinger. With Kevin's exposure...if the GFS verified, there would be a very strong surge of SE winds like we've mentioned. It's a this point, Kevin could pull a 70. I'll say that potential is there at 1k if the GFS happened. That's why srn CT scares me with that. Thanks dude. Good stuff. Would that be afternoon or nite tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Hearing they are assembling a Windham County Ct Fire Dept strike team to be deployed to the harder affected areas once the storm dies down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Boston Fire activating additional companies and vehicles for response to emergencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Thanks dude. Good stuff. Would that be afternoon or nite tomorrow? You have had a stinger for ten days! I could see you getting crushed tomorrow afternoon. Nothing between you and the Atlantic on a s wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Hearing they are assembling a Windham County Ct Fire Dept strike team to be deployed to the harder affected areas once the storm dies down I will call you, bring the 24" bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 You have had a stinger for ten days! I could see you getting crushed tomorrow afternoon. Nothing between you and the Atlantic on a s wind. I do very well in sou'easter events . The hills here and RI tend to Max out as you know. That's why I get so amped up when we have a chance for a strong sou'easter, provided it doesn't wipe out 2 feet of snow like 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Well the leaves no leaves fall leaves green leaves theory will be put to a full test tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Well the leaves no leaves fall leaves green leaves theory will be put to a full test tomorrow Yeah it's interesting. I think 50-55 is when it starts not to matter with leaves/ no leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Scott - are you saying winds won't be that bad then? I am confused. I thought my area was in for strong winds... No, winds will be strong everywhere, I said that I'm not sure some interior spots will reach KFS predictions. However, higher elevations could gust to 70 like Kevin's area if the GFS verified. And then areas like the east slopes of the ORH may very well too during the erly LLJ, because there isn't much land friction when you are another 500' or so higher than areas to the east..like where Will is. There may be two things going on for strong winds. #1) Tomorrow aftn easterly LLJ will be rocking. While soundings do not support deep mixing, turbulent eddies alone and any showers will be able to transport 75mph winds only several hundred feet up. This will impact coastal areas and any areas that are higher up...like ORH...and especially the eastern ORH hills since they are the first land object encountered by the jet. The reason being several hundred feet higher than areas east of them like Shrewsbury. All interior areas will probably gust 50-60 at least during this. Convective showers may also cause localized higher gusts, but we cannot pinpoint those areas from mesoscale stuff like that. #2) the south coast of SNE as Sandy moves into NJ. It's here where another enhanced LLJ from the SE moves in and nails CT. This imo is probably Kevin's best shot. The reason is due to warm surface area that will be ripped in on E-SE winds, yet temps aloft will actually cool thanks to CAA aloft from the SE! This will cause low level lapse rates to steepen and therefore higher momentum transfer possible. #2 I think is more GFS and perhaps Euro dependent since it has a core of strong winds. Tropical models would bring this a little more south. Also, there is the chance that Sandy may have an oval shape to the center of low pressure. What I mean is that as it moves NW then WNW, the center of low pressure will perhaps stretch out to the ENE giving it less of a circular shape and more oval in nature. I think what this would do, it perhaps cause a wicked LLJ moving into SNE and really allowing winds to blow across all areas. The NAM sort of does this and the fast whiplash west of that trough of low pressure would enhance winds I think. Just some things to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2012 Author Share Posted October 28, 2012 Thanks dude. Good stuff. Would that be afternoon or nite tomorrow? I think you will rock 7pm-12am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I'm little surprised some of the school districts up here have already called off tomorrow. Umass, Smith, Amherst College all closed. I guess they are erroring on the side of caution. Getting a little breezier here up in the tree tops. From the E, maybe 10mph or so. Mohawk announced closing at 2:00p.m.--first on the WWLP list, I think. Also said that if there are numerous outages tomorrow, you can assume there's no school on Tuesday. lol Congrats Will on the possibility of good winds! I can hear it whistling away here, but still stuck at 20 for my high. Weird it's whistling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Wow, Noyes just said on his live broadcast there would be widespread outages into central NH and all the way to the NY border in MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 BUFKIT even brings TS force sustained to ORH around 21z tomorrow. If that happens, there is definitely potential for 70mph gusts. 80 knots sustained at 900mb will bring some potential. Hey Will, you're great with SNE climo... do upslope/downslope mechanisms have any influence in SNE on winds? Or is it only precipitation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammerz_nailz Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 This map shows most of Ct (away from the coast) with a 50-60% chance of maintained 38+mph wind speeds. Is that right? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1812_PROB34_F120+gif/205341.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 When are we expecting Sandy to start her turn N? Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Thanks dude. Good stuff. Would that be afternoon or nite tomorrow? Congratulations on both your persistence with the call, Kevin and the wind's you'll be getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Hey Will, you're great with SNE climo... do upslope/downslope mechanisms have any influence in SNE on winds? Or is it only precipitation? I don't think the terrain is steep enough to have a big effect. On the west slope of the Berkshires you can get some downslope enhancement, but its not like what is seen up in the Greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Overcast and breezy, will be interesting tomorrow I think there will be plenty of breaks of sun in between bands, really do not see that much rain around here at all. Could be very cool ripping close to 70 with an occasional peak of sun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The forecast at Conimicut Light is 10.4', that's almost 3' higher than Irene and there were water issues then. Should see the worst widespread flooding since Bob. 4-6' surge with waves 20'+ in Pt. Judith, will be major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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