NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 SNE is gonna get slammed anyway you put this. Same as NYC,PHL, Balt, DC.... Still not sure where this thing is gonna land due to the 6z nam and 0z euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 SNE is gonna get slammed anyway you put this. Same as NYC,PHL, Balt, DC.... . It does look like SNE is going to be the jackpot for winds, as long as the storm is north of Delaware. Very exciting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vr4jon Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Remember hearing some that 50 million people will be affected by this storm. Out of comparison, how many people did the 93 superstorm affect? (I realize how it is all completely different, just curious) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 With the current forecast track, are we looking at widespread 5-10 inch rainfall amount, are some areas (ie) western ma/ct prone to be on the higher ende due to elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 As much as severe weather events are exciting and just interesting to witness from a scientific point of view, this is one event that I hope is not as significant as projected. Really not looking forward to days without power, major flooding, and tree damage with this. We still have all our leaves, which will exacerbate both the tree damage and flooding due to clogging of storm drains from the amount of leaves that will fall. Hopefully the track still changes or the storm isn't quite as strong as forecast, I'll take a blizzard over this any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Unlike most hurricanes, the fact that good chunk of trees in new England have shed there leave would have to help us a little with damage versus a early Sept storm, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 As much as severe weather events are exciting and just interesting to witness from a scientific point of view, this is one event that I hope is not as significant as projected. Really not looking forward to days without power, major flooding, and tree damage with this. We still have all our leaves, which will exacerbate both the tree damage and flooding due to clogging of storm drains from the amount of leaves that will fall. Hopefully the track still changes or the storm isn't quite as strong as forecast, I'll take a blizzard over this any day. This will be a nasty storm for most. thankfully most of the leaves are fallen up here. I've seen gusts around 110 mph or so with full foliage (microbursts in Bob on Cape Cod), it's pretty ridiculous when the roar and shriek of the wind is overwhelmed by the noise caused by crashing and slamming of objects. The gust potential looks like a cat 1 or at worst low-end cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NHC sticking with S NJ landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Nice quick 10 miler. Actually a little muggy out there this morning. I was noticing that about 85-90% of the trees are now bare even Oaks..Even in the dark you can tell. This is the earliest I ever recall the Oaks coming down. Anyway..GFS looks just about dead nuts on top of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 JMHO, Euro if verified would not be as bad surge and wind wise up here. GFS is much. More dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 JMHO, Euro if verified would not be as bad surge and wind wise up here. GFS is much. More dangerous. I think NNJ to NYC is LF..I think you'll see Euro make a move NE today like HM said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Nice quick 10 miler. Actually a little muggy out there this morning. I was noticing that about 85-90% of the trees are now bare even Oaks..Even in the dark you can tell. This is the earliest I ever recall the Oaks coming down. Anyway..GFS looks just about dead nuts on top of 00z. nearly the complete opposite here. i've heard this from several folks and its funny because we are nowhere near leaf drop here. maybe after tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Unlike most hurricanes, the fact that good chunk of trees in new England have shed there leave would have to help us a little with damage versus a early Sept storm, right? My sister who lives in Brooklyn said their trees have hardly even turned yet. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 nearly the complete opposite here. i've heard this from several folks and its funny because we are nowhere near leaf drop here. maybe after tues. Yeah that's crazy..I'd think you guys wouldn't be that far behind..It looks like mid Nov here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 nearly the complete opposite here. i've heard this from several folks and its funny because we are nowhere near leaf drop here. maybe after tues. Leaf drop the hard way, where the tree comes with the leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It'll be interesting to see how BOX handles the wind warnings..Do they go inland hurricane warning..or do they just go HWW..Probably HWW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 i wish ecmwf would just make all their stupid data available for free. so obnoxious not having it all. regardless...fwiw...a 4km nam product i have takes sandy into extreme S NJ and still absolutely pounds east coastal SNE. sustained surface winds 40-60 knots, mean wind up to 30 mb of 70 to 75 knots and 925 jet to 90 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Pressure is down to 961 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 This is pretty crazy. Wow. Looks like gusts to 50 all the way up here possibly? Regardless, this'll be so fun to track Monday-tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 i wish ecmwf would just make all their stupid data available for free. so obnoxious not having it all. regardless...fwiw...a 4km nam product i have takes sandy into extreme S NJ and still absolutely pounds east coastal SNE. sustained surface winds 40-60 knots, mean wind up to 30 mb of 70 to 75 knots and 92 5 jet to 90 knots. Phil do you have the 00z euro ens? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Noted the 5 am NHC advisory where north of the current TS warning area, they are having local offices issue Storm/High Wind warnings. Looking at the watches being issued by Mount Holly confirms this. A bit surprised, figured they would treat as tropical up until landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It'll be interesting to see how BOX handles the wind warnings..Do they go inland hurricane warning..or do they just go HWW..Probably HWW I'd HWWW down by you. Heck, they might even extend that up toward GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 New recon..Hmmmm 000 URNT12 KWBC 271044 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 27/10:27:20Z B. 28 deg 47 min N 076 deg 40 min W C. NA D. 58 kt E. 313 deg 35 nm F. 026 deg 53 kt G. 314 deg 38 nm H. 961 mb I. 9 C / 3657 m J. 12 C / 3622 m K. 10 C / NA L. SPIRAL BANDING M. NA N. 12345 / NA O. 1 / 1 P. NOAA2 1418A SANDY OB 13 MAX FL WIND 53 KT NW QUAD 10:18:12Z SST 27.2 IN CENTER FROM AXBT SONDE SPLASH WITH 6 KTS WIND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Ummm how did we get the central pressure to drop 8mb in 6 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Ummm how did we get the central pressure to drop 8mb in 6 hours? I saw that ..What could that mean? The thing is bombing already it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 New recon..Hmmmm 000 URNT12 KWBC 271044 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 27/10:27:20Z B. 28 deg 47 min N 076 deg 40 min W C. NA D. 58 kt E. 313 deg 35 nm F. 026 deg 53 kt G. 314 deg 38 nm H. 961 mb I. 9 C / 3657 m J. 12 C / 3622 m K. 10 C / NA L. SPIRAL BANDING M. NA N. 12345 / NA O. 1 / 1 P. NOAA2 1418A SANDY OB 13 MAX FL WIND 53 KT NW QUAD 10:18:12Z SST 27.2 IN CENTER FROM AXBT SONDE SPLASH WITH 6 KTS WIND vs. 0Z Euro 968 mb for 12z Sat 0Z GFS 972 mb for 12z Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Despite Sandy's projected size and strength, if landfall is Central NJ or South anyone in interior SNE expecting to be awed is setting themselves up for disappointment imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Despite Sandy's projected size and strength, if landfall is Central NJ or South anyone in interior SNE expecting to be awed is setting themselves up for disappointment imo. Don't think so dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I saw that ..What could that mean? The thing is bombing already it appears. Stronger would support a "wagon's south" outcome, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro ensembles south into srn NJ.Similar to 00z. Still looks like ctrl/srn NJ landfall to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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