Sandy/EC Discussion Part IV

[Wx4cast]

UK 72 and 96 :

[CoastalWx]

That first LLJ lifting north into SNE has a screaming LLJ from the ENE. That in combo with rain could have some big time gusts, but probably the strongest sustained winds here. Then, winds go SE-S after that passes with probably pulses of convective showers and strong winds. These winds will be more convective in nature I think given gradual CAA with time. This all will depend on how the windfield develops out over the water, strength, and angle of approach/landfall.

[CoastalWx]

[ORH_wxman]

Gulp. Thinking I'm in ground zero at the moment.. unlikely to miss too far north and it will be bad here whether it hits S NJ or MTK.

(In Lyme CT currently)

Some of those beach communities could be in some trouble...if you are a couple miles inland...no worries on the storm surge front, but for those near the shore, it could rival some of the bigger ones of all time if a GFS solution verifies. Prob wont beat '38 or Carol in SE CT/RI, but certainly could at least start to get in the same area code.

Still a lot of uncertainty though on the surge with the differing solutions. Angle of attack on the GFS was far worse for CT/RI than the previous runs.

[Typhoon Tip]

The coastal flooding along the coast of my old stomping grounds in Fairfield County, CT could be absolutely catastrophic if the GFS were to verify. It would very likely surpass that of Irene and the December 1992 nor'easter, and perhaps substantially so.

High tide is around midnight Tuesday in that area, which is just after the time of LF. Given that the storm will be west of SW CT and NYC at this point, the winds will be E to SE, which will pile the water up big time into western LI Sound. Big, big problems likely for the coastal communities from New Haven to NYC. Evacuations for the low lying areas south of I-95 may be warranted.

My biggest fear with this event is not wind or rain (although these issues will be significant and shouldn't be understated by any means), it's storm surge. Given the currently modeled track, the areas I outlined above may bear the brunt of it.

I've been really trying to bring awareness to surge into NYC in recent days, I couldn't agree more. There's an asrto-tide anomaly, too

[yoda]

GGEM landfall NYC area around 950mb at 69/70 hrs... 6pm or so Monday evening

[Typhoon Tip]

Side note, the snow threat seems to be diminishing save for higher els of upslopers in the Apps.

[Bostonseminole]

GGEM landfall NYC area around 950mb at 69/70 hrs... 6pm or so Monday evening

was the GGEM first to see this 10 days ago?

Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck.

[Wx4cast]

Some of the best NW Pacific coast windstorms featured prominent warm seclusion storms and sting jet features. And yeah, Europe probably has the best in the world in terms of sting jets. They name their windstorms. AWESOME list of NW Pacific windstorms.

http://www.climate.w....edu/stormking/

tendency for warm seclusions northern parts of ocean basins and slightly more likely on the "east' ends. Yes the sting jets are the "best" in Europe. Speeds often tend to be close to the 925-850 winds. Recalled having more than a few vessels that we were routing get caught up in warm seclusions.

[Typhoon Tip]

Damn, I feel like Isaac Cline's famous ride up and down the causeways of Galveston trying to warm of the storm surge. I really think the converging model expressions are targeting NYC as a huge disaster potential. What I find amazing is that 150 years of that city has never seen this type of unique set up - ...no words.

I hope the verification is different; the objective model guidance interpretation is clad, though.

[Chrisrotary12]

How long of a duration event do we seriously think this could be? Midnight on Monday maybe through till noon on Tuesday........or possibly into Wednesday. One thing (well maybe another thing) that has been really inconsistent has been what to do with Sandy after landfall. Stall her or keep on chugging?

[Mr Torchey]

The south coast of RI/CT would get destroyed with the more accelerated NW/NNW track in a straighter line.

Hey Will,

Obviously the surge would be awful, could you briefly talk about structural damage with these type winds as modeled right now, have not heard much about that, obviously for the immediate coast but the threat would continue inland I would imagine with tree damage etc

[skierinvermont]

Damn, I feel like Isaac Cline's famous ride up and down the causeways of Galveston trying to warm of the storm surge. I really think the converging model expressions are targeting NYC as a huge disaster potential. What I find amazing is that 150 years of that city has never seen this type of unique set up - ...no words.

I hope the verification is different; the objective model guidance interpretation is clad, though.

I heard bloomberg is considering announcing an evacuation of 375k tomorrow.

[ORH_wxman]

Hey Will,

Obviously the surge would be awful, could you briefly talk about structural damage with these type winds as modeled right now, have not heard much about that, obviously for the immediate coast but the threat would continue inland I would imagine with tree damage etc

Well it would probably be a lot of trees downs...structural damage to buildings would probably be minimal...but maybe some shingles and such. Its still a bit early to really know what the winds will be. There's a pretty big difference between 60mph gusts and 85mph gusts.

[Wx4cast]

I've been really trying to bring awareness to surge into NYC in recent days, I couldn't agree more. There's an asrto-tide anomaly, too

It not only will be huge but over at least 3 tide cycles. ALL of the back bays on the western end of the sound from CT thru Westchester and Bronx and Northern Queens Counties will flood. The Dec 1992 coastal caused flooding on the runway at LGA (the one that extends ENE out over LI Sound I also believe there were rocks from the surrounding jetty that got heaved up on to the runway). The East River Drive will truly become that. The PATH Tubes between NJ and Lower Manhattan will flood.

Wouldn't be surprised to see the Tappan Zee and Whitestone Bridge closed. The latter sways like a mother. (Side note: It was built by the same company that built "Galloping Gertie" over the Tacoma Narrows back in the 1930s which collapsed).

[SnowMan]

It not only will be huge but over at least 3 tide cycles. ALL of the back bays on the western end of the sound from CT thru Westchester and Bronx and Northern Queens Counties will flood. The Dec 1992 coastal caused flooding on the runway at LGA (the one that extends ENE out over LI Sound I also believe there were rocks from the surrounding jetty that got heaved up on to the runway). The East River Drive will truly become that. The PATH Tubes between NJ and Lower Manhattan will flood.

Wouldn't be surprised to see the Tappan Zee and Whitestone Bridge closed. The latter sways like a mother. (Side note: It was built by the same company that built "Galloping Gertie" over the Tacoma Narrows back in the 1930s which collapsed).

Any flooding potential in Boston?

[EasternLI]

Gulp. Thinking I'm in ground zero at the moment.. unlikely to miss too far north and it will be bad here whether it hits S NJ or MTK.

(In Lyme CT currently)

You should be in my shoes...

[Typhoon Tip]

It not only will be huge but over at least 3 tide cycles. ALL of the back bays on the western end of the sound from CT thru Westchester and Bronx and Northern Queens Counties will flood. The Dec 1992 coastal caused flooding on the runway at LGA (the one that extends ENE out over LI Sound I also believe there were rocks from the surrounding jetty that got heaved up on to the runway). The East River Drive will truly become that. The PATH Tubes between NJ and Lower Manhattan will flood.

Wouldn't be surprised to see the Tappan Zee and Whitestone Bridge closed. The latter sways like a mother. (Side note: It was built by the same company that built "Galloping Gertie" over the Tacoma Narrows back in the 1930s which collapsed).

Right! And often times in these scenarios, it's not the primary high tide, but the secondary, with residual wave action and long swell energy still coming in - this system could result in a post study, though it may also be possible that many won't need a post study!

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Great stuff. Thanks Andy for the UK.

NYC is it for now. My thought maybe is we see a tick north as we get closer which is probably even worse as the system rummages like Godzilla thru Tokyo along Long Island on its way west. Maybe a track somewhere between block and westbury LI and then a dogleg left.

Simply an unbelievable evolution taking place. Future met students will study this event for decades to come.

[Wx4cast]

Any flooding potential in Boston?

I would think so but perhaps not as potentially huge but then I would defer to other mets/weather folks who are more intimate/knowledgeable with what this storm's track and strengthas it relates to MA

[bab5871]

Wx4cast: What are you thinking impact wise for the capital district?

[CoastalWx]

I would think so but perhaps not as potentially huge but then I would defer to other mets/weather folks who are more intimate/knowledgeable with what this storm's track and strengthas it relates to MA

It depends on angle of approach too and timing of strongest winds. That LLJ late morning and early aftn would not be good.

[jm1220]

Great stuff. Thanks Andy for the UK.

NYC is it for now. My thought maybe is we see a tick north as we get closer which is probably even worse as the system rummages like Godzilla thru Tokyo along Long Island on its way west. Maybe a track somewhere between block and westbury LI and then a dogleg left.

Simply an unbelievable evolution taking place. Future met students will study this event for decades to come.

For our sake on southern LI, hope you're right. We need the offshore winds as long as possible.

[ORH_wxman]

Any flooding potential in Boston?

We would need a much wider track out to the right and then have it back more WNW toward LI for a bigger flood threat to Boston...some of the earlier GFS runs had this. There will almost certainly be some decent coastal flooding on the south shore communities...but a more straight NW track would be less ridiculous. Merely moderate coastal flooding with that versus much more serious.

[Wx4cast]

Great stuff. Thanks Andy for the UK.

NYC is it for now. My thought maybe is we see a tick north as we get closer which is probably even worse as the system rummages like Godzilla thru Tokyo along Long Island on its way west. Maybe a track somewhere between block and westbury LI and then a dogleg left.

Simply an unbelievable evolution taking place. Future met students will study this event for decades to come.

YW

As for the the tick north - NO don't need the rivers in NNJ flooding due to both freshwater/runoff and in ability for them to drain because they can't due to surge preventing them from doing so!

[SnowMan]

I would think so but perhaps not as potentially huge but then I would defer to other mets/weather folks who are more intimate/knowledgeable with what this storm's track and strengthas it relates to MA

It depends on angle of approach too and timing of strongest winds. That LLJ late morning and early aftn would not be good.

We would need a much wider track out to the right and then have it back more WNW toward LI for a bigger flood threat to Boston...some of the earlier GFS runs had this. There will almost certainly be some decent coastal flooding on the south shore communities...but a more straight NW track would be less ridiculous. Merely moderate coastal flooding with that versus much more serious.

Got it - thanks.

[Wx4cast]

It depends on angle of approach too and timing of strongest winds. That LLJ late morning and early aftn would not be good.

I guess we'll have to keep tabs on the time of the windshifts vs the time of high tides

[Typhoon Tip]

I heard bloomberg is considering announcing an evacuation of 375k tomorrow.

Thanks God! please do - don't let uncertainty get in the way. In some unique situations I think the Met community needs to risk taking it on the chin. If it doesn't pan out so dire, fine!

The problem is getting the public to realize that taking precautionary measures will save them either way; whereas, taking no measures is always correlated to casualties.

[bch2014]

It depends on angle of approach too and timing of strongest winds. That LLJ late morning and early aftn would not be good.

Do you think Morrissey Blvd will flood?

[Ed Lizard]

>100 mph gusts along the immediate coast would seem possible in Boston if new GFS anywhere close to correct..