SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Also gets there faster cause it takes a straighter line... I think the 00z has sped up 6 hrs from 18z and 12hrs from 12z. If it speeds up is that a good thing? How does that affect the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Gfs is a disaster for NYC and SNE. Much much faster. I think the faster/straighter track is most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 short wave to west at about that time causing strengthening, no? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS initialized 10 mb too low with the sfc pressure. LF is similar to the NAM in the low 950's, far SW tip of LI heading just south of NYC. Where are you getting that the GFS initialized 10 mb too low with the surface pressure? Map I am looking at shows 979 mb at initialization, which is several mb too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 Where are you getting that the GFS initialized 10 mb too low with the surface pressure? Map I am looking at shows 979 mb at initialization, which is several mb too high. Typo, meant high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Quite the LLJ everywhere, but Kevin would be blown away on the hill..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Never seen anything like this event, with this storm taking on some of the best attributes of tropical and baroclinic systems. What is undoubtedly most impressive is the heat engine aspects of this storm and the amount of latent energy we are talking here. While the baroclinic side does not come close to the best Nor'easters, the latent energy blows almost if not all away. Some of the dynamical maps from this event are mind-boggling...simulating a storm with a legit tropopause induced sting jet and a convectively enhanced warm front...almost a dual sting jet feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Actually it's 18hrs faster than the 12z run.. mostly because it takes a straighter path to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looking at the QPF alone, this layout still looks like a hurricane approaching the Jersey coast ...This storm is really challenging the boundaries between TC and ET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 If it speeds up is that a good thing? How does that affect the storm? I believe a faster moving storm adds to the effects with regard to winds correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Never seen anything like this event, with this storm taking on some of the best attributes of tropical and baroclinic systems. What is undoubtedly most impressive is the heat engine aspects of this storm and the amount of latent energy we are talking here. While the baroclinic side does not come close to the best Nor'easters, the latent energy blows almost if not all away. Some of the dynamical maps from this event are mind-boggling...simulating a storm with a legit tropopause induced sting jet and a convectively enhanced warm front...almost a dual sting jet feature. Yeah, trop fold is in this and I mentioned this to the Met with the troposphere fold name earlier. It's so inverted though - could almost see that fold on the north wall... wow, wtf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The track with the elimination of ola hard left prior to lf makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 Quite the LLJ everywhere, but Kevin would be blown away on the hill..lol. Nearly 100 kt max at H9 blowing in on CT/RI on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Nearly 100 kt max at H9 blowing in on CT/RI on that run. Yeah that's nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 God I want to go to northern WV!!! So do I. I certainly would want the snow outside my house to be deeper than the storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah, trop fold is in this and I mentioned this to the Met with the troposphere fold name earlier. It's so inverted though - could almost see that fold on the north wall... wow, wtf! Yeah I noticed the N "sting" jet feature the GFS and a few other models are trying to simulate, given forward speed of storm that would be a major storm feature as it makes landfall. Most Nor'Easters never feature any type of sting jet, especially one that may actually impact the coast, but they are undoubtedly one of the most efficient destructive wind mechanisms in warm seclusion type storms...the west coast is much more used to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 So do I. I certainly would want the snow outside my house to be deeper than the storm surge. theres a guy on here who lives in Davis,WV (3200 ft) and owns a bed and breakfast. Anyone want to take a roadtrip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The south coast of RI/CT would get destroyed with the more accelerated NW/NNW track in a straighter line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Well we said this and it still had the hook back, but I think the less violent hook back seems more reasonable. Indeed...this hook is still dramatic...the last one seemed physically impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Does this change impact to Boston? What are we thinking for western burbs of Boston? Newton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah I noticed the N "sting" jet feature the GFS and a few other models are trying to simulate, given forward speed of storm that would be a major storm feature as it makes landfall. Most Nor'Easters never feature any type of sting jet, especially one that may actually impact the coast, but they are undoubtedly one of the most efficient destructive wind mechanisms in warm seclusion type storms...the west coast is much more used to them. I believe European storms (like ones off the United Kingdom) tend to have this type of feature as well. Although, I'm not as familiar with sting jet features with our major windstorms out here on the West Coast. Wouldn't surprise me, considering some of the crazy wind measurements that have been taken with some of our bigger storms (like the 1962 Columbus Day storm, the Great Gale of 1880, the Hanukkah Eve storm of 2006 and the 2007 Coastal Gale) along the Oregon and Washington Coasts (especially near the mouth of the Columbia River). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Does this change impact to Boston? What are we thinking for western burbs of Boston? Newton? Lots of wind. Kind of early to speculate but 40-70 stuff a decent bet even inland there. Could be higher gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 theres a guy on here who lives in Davis,WV (3200 ft) and owns a bed and breakfast. Anyone want to take a roadtrip? I was just talking to some wx nut friends, I would be down, PM me, I'm being srs too, I live in Philly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The south coast of RI/CT would get destroyed with the more accelerated NW/NNW track in a straighter line. Gulp. Thinking I'm in ground zero at the moment.. unlikely to miss too far north and it will be bad here whether it hits S NJ or MTK. (In Lyme CT currently) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The coastal flooding along the coast of my old stomping grounds in Fairfield County, CT could be absolutely catastrophic if the GFS were to verify. It would very likely surpass that of Irene and the December 1992 nor'easter, and perhaps substantially so. High tide is around midnight Tuesday in that area, which is just after the time of LF. Given that the storm will be west of SW CT and NYC at this point, the winds will be E to SE, which will pile the water up big time into western LI Sound. Big, big problems likely for the coastal communities from New Haven to NYC. Evacuations for the low lying areas south of I-95 may be warranted. My biggest fear with this event is not wind or rain (although these issues will be significant and shouldn't be understated by any means), it's storm surge. Given the currently modeled track, the areas I outlined above may bear the brunt of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah I noticed the N "sting" jet feature the GFS and a few other models are trying to simulate, given forward speed of storm that would be a major storm feature as it makes landfall. Most Nor'Easters never feature any type of sting jet, especially one that may actually impact the coast, but they are undoubtedly one of the most efficient destructive wind mechanisms in warm seclusion type storms...the west coast is much more used to them. Yeah, it has me kinda spooked actually... Folks this is uncharted waters so to speak. This ...truly odd arrangement, could bring the sting to places that wound't encounter them relative to systems at this latitude/longitude. Another thought, this has also a huge marker for an isallobaric wind pulse shortly after land fall as that huge depression fills - there are two chances for damaging pulse events not related to standard PGF affects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I believe European storms (like ones off the United Kingdom) tend to have this type of feature as well. Although, I'm not as familiar with sting jet features with our major windstorms out here on the West Coast. Wouldn't surprise me, considering some of the crazy wind measurements that have been taken along the Oregon and Washington Coasts (especially near the mouth of the Columbia River). Some of the best NW Pacific coast windstorms featured prominent warm seclusion storms and sting jet features. And yeah, Europe probably has the best in the world in terms of sting jets. They name their windstorms. AWESOME list of NW Pacific windstorms. http://www.climate.w....edu/stormking/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 00z NOGAPS follows suit just south of NYC... MSLP somwhere in 940s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 Some of the best NW Pacific coast windstorms featured prominent warm seclusion storms and sting jet features. And yeah, Europe probably has the best in the world in terms of sting jets. They name their windstorms. AWESOME list of NW Pacific windstorms. http://www.climate.w....edu/stormking/ Yeah I've gone through a few of those, the 2006 and 2007 storms were crazy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 00z NOGAPS follows suit just south of NYC... MSLP somwhere in 940s Euro will likely do the same then...these two models were in lock step with one another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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