radarman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 >100 mph gusts along the immediate coast would seem possible in Boston if new GFS anywhere close to correct.. Crazy looking soundings all across SNE. ESE winds ripping to 15000 meters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just looking at the models and stuff too..I wouldn't want to be on Peconic Bay either. can anyone share some bookmarks for surge forecasts? i have lost my links. TY in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Thanks God! please do - don't let uncertainty get in the way. In some unique situations I think the Met community needs to risk taking it on the chin. If it doesn't pan out so dire, fine! The problem is getting the public to realize that taking precautionary measures will save them either way; whereas, taking no measures is always correlated to casualties. Unfortunately the sting from "Irene" being a fizzle on the coast WILL come in to play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Anyword on the GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Yeah I noticed the N "sting" jet feature the GFS and a few other models are trying to simulate, given forward speed of storm that would be a major storm feature as it makes landfall. Most Nor'Easters never feature any type of sting jet, especially one that may actually impact the coast, but they are undoubtedly one of the most efficient destructive wind mechanisms in warm seclusion type storms...the west coast is much more used to them. I knew somone would mention it. Common term in The UK where they can cause a lot of damage. The GFLD and HWRF actually show it if you look carefully. There is a sudden temporary increase in winds for a couple frames with little prssure fall. It stays offshore though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Do you think Morrissey Blvd will flood? It probably would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 >100 mph gusts along the immediate coast would seem possible in Boston if new GFS anywhere close to correct.. Barb of death at H95...when the hell do you see that outside of true TCs down south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Anyword on the GEFS? Yeah just a hair south of 18z. Looks like near ACY or a bit north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wx4cast: What are you thinking impact wise for the capital district? This is what we came up with earlier this evening..based on the new data I might start to streess wind issues for us but I think it is still pretty valid. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37476-sandy-impacts-for-eny-and-wne/page__view__findpost__p__1818652 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just looking at the models and stuff too..I wouldn't want to be on Peconic Bay either. can anyone share some bookmarks for surge forecasts? i have lost my links. TY in advance. I found this earlier : http://www.opc.ncep....RTH_96_HR.shtml the loops hit me personally because though the wind is impressive, the surge has been my own primary threat issue in this ... That 5' surge has to be doubled or even tripled at micro-scaled topographical augments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I found this earlier : http://www.opc.ncep....RTH_96_HR.shtml the loops hit me personally because though the wind is impressive, the surge has been my own primary threat issue in this ... TY Mr. Cline err Tip. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I found this earlier : http://www.opc.ncep....RTH_96_HR.shtml the loops hit me personally because though the wind is impressive, the surge has been my own primary threat issue in this ... That 5' surge has to be doubled or even tripled at micro-scaled topographical augments. Wow Tippy, not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wow at the developments. Can we rule out a trend that continues more east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I found this earlier : http://www.opc.ncep....RTH_96_HR.shtml the loops hit me personally because though the wind is impressive, the surge has been my own primary threat issue in this ... That 5' surge has to be doubled or even tripled at micro-scaled topographical augments. I recall reading two reports about the surge associated with Katrina was "off" (too low). One paper dealt with wave action in shallow waters and refraction. The other one dealt with how surge models us delta-p and radius of maximum winds, central pressures, angle of LF, etc. BUT NONE use overall STORM size which should be factored in primarily due to fetch considerations. Some good reads. I will dig up the papers for you after hell escapes us by next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wow at the developments. Can we rule out a trend that continues more east? I posted the gfs ensemble mean above and it's actually a hair south of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Actually 00z GEFS and 18z GEFS are very similar...only 12 hrs apart..lol. Well, off to bed. Enjoy the night, guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wow at the developments. Can we rule out a trend that continues more east? I think so. The question in my mind is will we be looking at more of NW or even NNW heading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GGEM is the same as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I recall reading two reports about the surge associated with Katrina was "off" (too low). One paper dealt with wave action in shallow waters and refraction. The other one dealt with how surge models us delta-p and radius of maximum winds, central pressures, angle of LF, etc. BUT NONE use overall STORM size which should be factored in primarily due to fetch considerations. Some good reads. I will dig up the papers for you after hell escapes us by next week Definitely... storm surge fascinates me for coastal storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The extratropical surge guidance (I believe based on GFS) has a 7.6 ft surge in Bridgeport. Would be 2 feet higher than Irene. In New London a 5.5ft surge which would be the 3rd highest in 100 years. Peak tide of 8.23ft eclipsed only by Carol (9.6) and 1938 (10.6) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wow at the developments. Can we rule out a trend that continues more east? yeah, you're instinct is sound - it's not going east. It's cocking up for a round house punch - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The GFS takes it through Sandy Hook as you have probably seen...and eventually to the Poconos, etc. That puts LI in the worst possible spot. For our sake on southern LI, hope you're right. We need the offshore winds as long as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Unfortunately the sting from "Irene" being a fizzle on the coast WILL come in to play here. Here in CT we're not nearly as complacent after October snowstorm and devastating Irene surge and inland flooding. I feel like for the 3rd major disaster in 14 months we're used to this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The extratropical surge guidance (I believe based on GFS) has a 7.6 ft surge in Bridgeport. Would be 2 feet higher than Irene. In New London a 5.5ft surge which would be the 3rd highest in 100 years. Peak tide of 8.23ft eclipsed only by Carol (9.6) and 1938 (10.6) I sent this for the other Ryan's way: http://www.cnn.com/2....html?hpt=hp_c1 just fyi - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The gfes mean is a worst case track for nyc/li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Here in CT we're not nearly as complacent after October snowstorm and devastating Irene surge and inland flooding. I feel like for the 3rd major disaster in 14 months we're used to this! I'm sure you are, Ryan. Neither are we up here after Irene..if anything we have to keep people off the ledge because some have been comparing this storm to Irene which for us it won't be. BTW The XTSS guidance is based off of the NGM and its run on a Tandy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Meanwhile a ridiculously mild weekend up here in the Whites. Some of the guys hiked the 4k foot ascent to the top of MWN today and they said it was 61 on the summit. I didn't verify it. I'm sure you are, Ryan. Neither are we up here after Irene..if anything we have to keep people off the ledge because some have been comparing this storm to Irene which for us it won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Meanwhile a ridiculously mild weekend up here in the Whites. Some of the guys hiked the 4k foot ascent to the top of MWN today and they said it was 61 on the summit. I didn't verify it. You didn't because you couldn't make the hike up the mountain I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Due east to west into sandy hook? I think they were saying NW or NNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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