Potential major phasing event this weekend

[atownwxwatcher]

All the models are making some sort of error in my opinion....the GFS is cutting too far NE obviously, the NOGAPS/Euro are likely too slow with the forward speed and too far west on the track. The GEM is close to what I think will occur but its hook is also too sharp and track too far NE. I envision something between the GGEM/GFS right now with a much smoother hook to the N-NW, not a trajectory from 120-290 like they show, probably more of a 150-330 movement ashore, so basically NNW. I think the landfall point most likely is extreme eastern LI or RI.

Nogaps is faster then the ecm ....

then there is the GFDL which is very similar to both the nogaps and the ecm...

Just thought i point that out...

[MJO812]

This storm looks like it might be as bad as Irene or even worse in a lot of areas if the models are correct depicting the low being 930-950.

[bluewave]

The Euro ensembles are a little more right of track than the OP like the other models.

I would think as the storm is getting north of Cuba and the PAC energy is closer to the

West Coast that the models will begin to converge over the next 0-48 hrs with the track.

[SnowGoose69]

^^^

Do you think the euro is overdoing the strength of Sandy in our area? I can't envision a 940 low in the area.

Yeah if the storm ultimately comes ashore up here I don't envision it being a hurricane I forsee the same problem with this as I saw with Irene for days, the forward speed may be too slow from the Bahamas to here to keep it very strong, this time of year we probably need 20-25 mph or greater movement for an extended period and I'm not seeing that right now. The one advantage it may have is it won't brush up against land all through NC as Irene did but it will spend time over cooler water given we're 8 weeks later in the season. Right now for people who want to see the dream scenario we need this thing to truly get juiced up into a negative tilt trough and dragged up the coast FAST...if we see it more "guided" up the coast by being "pushed" from the west and blocked from the East it may maintain being a tropical like system but will weaken significantly. Right now the GEM/GFS scenarios are more the dragging its feet and then pulled in, the NOGAPS and Euro are closer to the dream scenario but even those I think the storm lolygags a bit too long in a potentially hostile environment off NC/SC.

[Voyager]

One positive for our area compared to Irene - this year has been markedly drier in the weeks preceding. So much of the Irene damage (at least inland) was from the saturated ground not being able to handle and other 6 inches of rain.

Not too minimize this storm in the least though. I have had my fill after Irene, looking for silver linings.

I don't know about all areas, but where I live, I've had 13.53" since Sept 1st, 4.56" for October to date, and am coming off 2.90" last Friday. the ground is fairly moist in my locale. Other localized areas may be different, but it's been somewhat wet in some areas.

[SnowGoose69]

One positive for our area compared to Irene - this year has been markedly drier in the weeks preceding. So much of the Irene damage (at least inland) was from the saturated ground not being able to handle and other 6 inches of rain.

Not too minimize this storm in the least though. I have had my fill after Irene, looking for silver linings.

The dry ground is a big factor, alot of the trees that couldn't make it now being gone is another, some de-foliation, particularly inland is a 3rd. However, the long duration may again be there much like with Irene. Again, the key is getting the center in to the east so winds are more N-NE and not from that dreaded E-SE direction which the trees simply do not handle as well as winds from the SW-NW or NE.

[SBUWX23]

You are completely discrediting the baroclinicity and jet dynamics this storm is going to playing off of. Even if it is not a "hurricane" it "could" be worse than Iren

Yeah if the storm ultimately comes ashore up here I don't envision it being a hurricane I forsee the same problem with this as I saw with Irene for days, the forward speed may be too slow from the Bahamas to here to keep it very strong, this time of year we probably need 20-25 mph or greater movement for an extended period and I'm not seeing that right now. The one advantage it may have is it won't brush up against land all through NC as Irene did but it will spend time over cooler water given we're 8 weeks later in the season. Right now for people who want to see the dream scenario we need this thing to truly get juiced up into a negative tilt trough and dragged up the coast FAST...if we see it more "guided" up the coast by being "pushed" from the west and blocked from the East it may maintain being a tropical like system but will weaken significantly. Right now the GEM/GFS scenarios are more the dragging its feet and then pulled in, the NOGAPS and Euro are closer to the dream scenario but even those I think the storm lolygags a bit too long in a potentially hostile environment off NC/SC.

[MJO812]

I agree that this storm can be worse than Irene. Irene was a dying hurricane as it made landfall. The models strengthen sandy as it moves up the coast . Combine that with the trough and bam, you have a serious problem. I think the wind field in this storm will be huge.

[IrishRob17]

I don't know about all areas, but where I live, I've had 13.53" since Sept 1st, 4.56" for October to date, and am coming off 2.90" last Friday. the ground is fairly moist in my locale. Other localized areas may be different, but it's been somewhat wet in some areas.

Similar up here but not quite as wet as you, 10.36" since Sept 1, which breaks down to +2.11 for Sept and +.86 for October so far.

[Roger Smith]

06z RGEM (to 48h) does nothing to change 00z GGEM scenario.

06z GFS still has the implausibly wide hook well into the blocking high. Don't see that happening really.

Euro on the other hand seems to have over-adjusted. I agree with the Long Island landfall theory and would say west-central LI to sw CT to BGM the most likely track.

With a 950 mb centre making landfall, I would expect impacts to be fairly bad even in NYC on the marginally back side of the track. Margin of error is too close at this time range anyway but for sake of argument, a 950 mb landfall south of ISP tracking to 20n LGA would imply winds steadily increasing from NE backing to NNW across metro NYC and mostly in the 50-80 mph range. Winds on the strong side of the low would probably peak at 80-120 mph. This would imply a 15-25 ft storm surge trending to 5-10 ft around NYC.

Just rough estimates for a track that is not anywhere near determined. The basic idea is that whoever finds themselves between the landfall point (or 30west of it) and the 970 mb contour on the strong side can expect damage for sure, otherwise it's more hit and miss depending on channelling and precip phase (heavy snow will cause damage in PA MD WV at any wind speed where trees are still carrying their leaves).

I see the point being made about perhaps the sluggish forward speed could allow weakening but the GGEM scenario shows a complete phase with a 528 dm upper low and 952 mb surface low, to me that spells 80-120 mph wind max zone over parts of LI and 60-100 mph in s CT. I hope I am wrong and that this storm does reasonably little damage, but I have a very strong feeling that unless the models totally bust, it will be high impact, much higher than Irene for sure except in VT and north of Albany.

The current Euro scenario is very nasty looking for NJ and NYC, and would imply a more variable wind field because the system would be pulsating due to multiple land interactions, I would imagine the wind record at JFK for example in that kind of track would show big oscillations from 40 to 110 mph. There would be a totally weird looking wind field over NJ, something like north 30 mph at Trenton, east 60 mph at Newark, SE 80 mph at Asbury Park and perhaps ACY into the eye, Cape May veering to SW 50-80, just to illustrate rather than try to predict. This will have a calm center of about 20-30 miles in diameter, almost in any scenario.

The worst possible track for impact, I would conjecture, is directly across New York City from 140 deg. This would combine wind damage in a heavily populated area with large storm surges over a wide area.

Anyone reading this, please bear in mind, just one opinion out of hundreds, caveat emptor. The big challenge will be nailing the impacts in time to provide the best possible warnings rather than over-generalized warnings that won't identify the exact risks. I have to imagine from what I read on here that the broadcast mets in the northeast U.S. have the full attention of the general public and that will save a lot of lives if this comes in strong. Saving property is more of an individual's early planning that almost has to take place before risks are nailed down. Any prudent person would be thinking of moving valuable items out of harm's way (taking into account the wider range of places where harm could fall). I mean, why wouldn't you, we have nothing better than these computer models unless Nostradamus shows up and says landfall 20 east of Fire Island.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

06z RGEM (to 48h) does nothing to change 00z GGEM scenario.

06z GFS still has the implausibly wide hook well into the blocking high. Don't see that happening really.

Euro on the other hand seems to have over-adjusted. I agree with the Long Island landfall theory and would say west-central LI to sw CT to BGM the most likely track.

With a 950 mb centre making landfall, I would expect impacts to be fairly bad even in NYC on the marginally back side of the track. Margin of error is too close at this time range anyway but for sake of argument, a 950 mb landfall south of ISP tracking to 20n LGA would imply winds steadily increasing from NE backing to NNW across metro NYC and mostly in the 50-80 mph range. Winds on the strong side of the low would probably peak at 80-120 mph. This would imply a 15-25 ft storm surge trending to 5-10 ft around NYC.

Just rough estimates for a track that is not anywhere near determined. The basic idea is that whoever finds themselves between the landfall point (or 30west of it) and the 970 mb contour on the strong side can expect damage for sure, otherwise it's more hit and miss depending on channelling and precip phase (heavy snow will cause damage in PA MD WV at any wind speed where trees are still carrying their leaves).

I see the point being made about perhaps the sluggish forward speed could allow weakening but the GGEM scenario shows a complete phase with a 528 dm upper low and 952 mb surface low, to me that spells 80-120 mph wind max zone over parts of LI and 60-100 mph in s CT. I hope I am wrong and that this storm does reasonably little damage, but I have a very strong feeling that unless the models totally bust, it will be high impact, much higher than Irene for sure except in VT and north of Albany.

The current Euro scenario is very nasty looking for NJ and NYC, and would imply a more variable wind field because the system would be pulsating due to multiple land interactions, I would imagine the wind record at JFK for example in that kind of track would show big oscillations from 40 to 110 mph. There would be a totally weird looking wind field over NJ, something like north 30 mph at Trenton, east 60 mph at Newark, SE 80 mph at Asbury Park and perhaps ACY into the eye, Cape May veering to SW 50-80, just to illustrate rather than try to predict. This will have a calm center of about 20-30 miles in diameter, almost in any scenario.

The worst possible track for impact, I would conjecture, is directly across New York City from 140 deg. This would combine wind damage in a heavily populated area with large storm surges over a wide area.

Anyone reading this, please bear in mind, just one opinion out of hundreds, caveat emptor. The big challenge will be nailing the impacts in time to provide the best possible warnings rather than over-generalized warnings that won't identify the exact risks. I have to imagine from what I read on here that the broadcast mets in the northeast U.S. have the full attention of the general public and that will save a lot of lives if this comes in strong. Saving property is more of an individual's early planning that almost has to take place before risks are nailed down. Any prudent person would be thinking of moving valuable items out of harm's way (taking into account the wider range of places where harm could fall). I mean, why wouldn't you, we have nothing better than these computer models unless Nostradamus shows up and says landfall 20 east of Fire Island.

I posted a similar landfalling scenario earlier.

[NaoPos]

GEFS takes it NYC to state college...

[BxEngine]

Similar up here but not quite as wet as you, 10.36" since Sept 1, which breaks down to +2.11 for Sept and +.86 for October so far.

Yeah Im over 5" for October as well.

[sauss06]

Yeah Im over 5" for October as well.

sounds like you'd better pack a bag for an extended stay at the station....

[Voyager]

Yeah Im over 5" for October as well.

I think it's rather localized, but some locations have been wetter than normal since September 1st. How that plays into the large scale flooding issues I don't know, but some local areas may be harder hit than others.

[Guest Imperator]

06z RGEM (to 48h) does nothing to change 00z GGEM scenario.

06z GFS still has the implausibly wide hook well into the blocking high. Don't see that happening really.

Euro on the other hand seems to have over-adjusted. I agree with the Long Island landfall theory and would say west-central LI to sw CT to BGM the most likely track.

With a 950 mb centre making landfall, I would expect impacts to be fairly bad even in NYC on the marginally back side of the track. Margin of error is too close at this time range anyway but for sake of argument, a 950 mb landfall south of ISP tracking to 20n LGA would imply winds steadily increasing from NE backing to NNW across metro NYC and mostly in the 50-80 mph range. Winds on the strong side of the low would probably peak at 80-120 mph. This would imply a 15-25 ft storm surge trending to 5-10 ft around NYC.

Just rough estimates for a track that is not anywhere near determined. The basic idea is that whoever finds themselves between the landfall point (or 30west of it) and the 970 mb contour on the strong side can expect damage for sure, otherwise it's more hit and miss depending on channelling and precip phase (heavy snow will cause damage in PA MD WV at any wind speed where trees are still carrying their leaves).

I see the point being made about perhaps the sluggish forward speed could allow weakening but the GGEM scenario shows a complete phase with a 528 dm upper low and 952 mb surface low, to me that spells 80-120 mph wind max zone over parts of LI and 60-100 mph in s CT. I hope I am wrong and that this storm does reasonably little damage, but I have a very strong feeling that unless the models totally bust, it will be high impact, much higher than Irene for sure except in VT and north of Albany.

The current Euro scenario is very nasty looking for NJ and NYC, and would imply a more variable wind field because the system would be pulsating due to multiple land interactions, I would imagine the wind record at JFK for example in that kind of track would show big oscillations from 40 to 110 mph. There would be a totally weird looking wind field over NJ, something like north 30 mph at Trenton, east 60 mph at Newark, SE 80 mph at Asbury Park and perhaps ACY into the eye, Cape May veering to SW 50-80, just to illustrate rather than try to predict. This will have a calm center of about 20-30 miles in diameter, almost in any scenario.

The worst possible track for impact, I would conjecture, is directly across New York City from 140 deg. This would combine wind damage in a heavily populated area with large storm surges over a wide area.

Anyone reading this, please bear in mind, just one opinion out of hundreds, caveat emptor. The big challenge will be nailing the impacts in time to provide the best possible warnings rather than over-generalized warnings that won't identify the exact risks. I have to imagine from what I read on here that the broadcast mets in the northeast U.S. have the full attention of the general public and that will save a lot of lives if this comes in strong. Saving property is more of an individual's early planning that almost has to take place before risks are nailed down. Any prudent person would be thinking of moving valuable items out of harm's way (taking into account the wider range of places where harm could fall). I mean, why wouldn't you, we have nothing better than these computer models unless Nostradamus shows up and says landfall 20 east of Fire Island.

Roger,

Again, I will like to know your back up for such outrageous wind and surge predictions. A someone in the main Sandy forum said to you yesterday:

"Roger,

You're not understanding the baroclynic process that actually gets this down to a sub 940 pressure.

Tropical wind/pressure correlation has no business with that aspect."

I think your misunderstanding of the situation is leading to make calls that are, at the face of it unbelievable, fear mongering and extremely not likely.

[KEITH L.I]

GEFS takes it NYC to state college...

GFS takes it from the Flemish Cap to Montreal lol

[Weathergun]

6z GFDL still with Sandy NW into Delmarva, at 940mb:

[donsutherland1]

This will have a calm center of about 20-30 miles in diameter, almost in any scenario.

Roger,

If Sandy is post-tropical or, more likely transitioning, it probably wouldn't have a well-defined calm center.

FWIW, my thoughts are that Sandy's windfield will likely be expanding as it approaches landfall (perhaps in the Mid-Atlantic or New England with a rough guess that something between the Operational ECMWF and ECMWF/GFS ensemble mean might illustrate the area at greatest risk for landfall). It could still produce some very strong gusts and an impressive storm surge that could produce flooding along the Delmarva to Long Island. While it's too soon for me to speculate on its exact strength, I do think it's reasonable to state that Sandy would be more than one's typical nor'easter, but it very likely won't be another 1821 Hurricane, 1938 Hurricane or Hazel.

There remains a small probability that Sandy could escape in a fashion shown on some earlier runs of the GFS, but I think that's not very likely given that a lot would have to happen in the face of the current blocking for such an escape (a near "thread-the-needle"-type scenario).

Of course, many questions remain: How strong will Sandy be when it begins to interact with the trough? Will it fully or partially phase? Will baroclinic deepening occur? Will Sandy be post-tropical or transitioning? Where will she come ashore and at what trajectory?

[Guest Imperator]

Roger,

If Sandy is post-tropical or, more likely transitioning, it probably wouldn't have a well-defined calm center.

FWIW, my thoughts are that Sandy's windfield will likely be expanding as it approaches landfall (perhaps in the Mid-Atlantic or New England with a rough guess that something between the Operational ECMWF and ECMWF/GFS ensemble mean might illustrate the area at greatest risk for landfall). It could still produce some very strong gusts and an impressive storm surge that could produce flooding along the Delmarva to Long Island. While it's too soon for me to speculate on its exact strength, I do think it's reasonable to state that Sandy would be more than one's typical nor'easter, but it very likely won't be another 1821 Hurricane, 1938 Hurricane or Hazel.

There remains a small probability that Sandy could escape in a fashion shown on some earlier runs of the GFS, but I think that's not very likely given that a lot would have to happen in the face of the current blocking for such an escape (a near "thread-the-needle"-type scenario).

Of course, many questions remain: How strong will Sandy be when it begins to interact with the trough? Will it fully or partially phase? Will baroclinic deepening occur? Will Sandy be post-tropical or transitioning? Where will she come ashore and at what trajectory?

Don,

You are always the voice of reason. Thank You.

[Entropy]

6z GFDL still with Sandy NW into Delmarva, at 940mb:

I notice this has the heaviest rain on the southwest side, which is what I would have expected from a decaying tropical storm. But Accuweather's discussion projects the heaviest rain to the northeast of the track, which is the opposite of what I would have expected. Which solution is more likely to be correct?

[MJO812]

I wonder if people will be able to go to work Monday since the worst will be Monday.

[Guest Imperator]

I wonder if people will be able to go to work Monday since the worst will be Monday.

You mean *cough* school *cough* LOL

[MikeS]

I wonder if people will be able to go to work Monday since the worst will be Monday.

It will ultimately depend on the flooding and power situations come Monday morning.

[MJO812]

You mean *cough* school *cough* LOL

I don't go to school

[MJO812]

DT thinks 50-70 mph winds for the area with higher gusts.

[psv88]

DT thinks 50-70 mph winds for the area with higher gusts.

way too early to nail down specifics, if it keeps trending south on the Euro the winds may be much less.

[hazwoper]

You mean *cough* school *cough* LOL

NYCVP - your downplaying of the ramifications of such an extreme outcome as depicted now on many of the models is, quite frankly, stupid. Yes, this seems to be an outlandish outcome as depicted, but records are made to be broken and extreme outcomes can and do happen. One can see just what might happen just be simply looking at the forecasted surge put out by NWS. Already forecasting a 2.2' surge at Cape May by just 6Z on the 29th??? On top of astronomical high tides??

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn&region=ne&type=both&stn=njmay

[blizzardof09]

DT thinks 50-70 mph winds for the area with higher gusts.

Snow88 the biggest impact by far is gonna be the possible dangerous coastal flooding and damage its gonna cause. The winds near the coast especially if a NYC landfall happens i expect like DT said 50-70mph sustained winds with higher gusts in the squalls. Power outages are going to be a huge problem for NYC metro especially east across LI/CT. Probably easily rivaling irene. I will say this its quite possible someone on the coast in the NE quadrant could see a wing gust around 100mph if it hits with the intensity forecasted

[billgwx]

DT thinks 50-70 mph winds for the area with higher gusts.

I mostly agree with this. I'd still be concerned that the center could maintain or even gain intensify via warm seclusion processes, and that there could be bonafide hurricane force winds in a small area just east or northeast of the center.

The worst case track for NYC would be a NNW to NW moving storm making landfall along the central NJ coast. That would maximize the period of strongest onshore winds funneling into NY harbor. A dead-on approach to NYC would be worse for western Long Island.