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Potential major phasing event this weekend


forkyfork

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When I step out of my IMBY shoes...what I see is that this is a high end event for the entire Northeast regardless of where "landfall" of the center occurs...also agree with Earthlight big time wind moderate to severe erosion up and down the shore *if* anything like that verified.

We are entering territory where this will go down as an epic storm with very good early signal from a good deal of the modeling...or an epic medium range modeling fail.

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The weighted mean of four models (40% Euro, 20% UK,GFS,GEM) gives a track over Long Island or NYC despite the fact that various solutions are on either side of the region ... which should maintain the highest possible alert for this potential storm until either that consensus shifts west to join the Euro (one possibility given its longer fix on the general solution) or we get to the now unlikely miss out to sea or Canadian Maritimes landfall (rated by this method at 20%, rated subjectively by me at 5%).

I can't separate out my subjective forecast from this blend because this is how I forecast every day in general (mostly for other parts of the n.h.) so I tend to think of the most likely solution as this weighted blend. Sometimes I adjust the weights if I think the model performances are different in a given situation from this default value. Quite often there isn't enough difference to make different weights very important, in this case, you would see a shift as far east as Montauk to central CT by just going equal weights on all four.

Combined with the current intensification and the wide open highway ahead, I can see no cause for any sort of complacency -- this is basically going to keep on trucking at cat-2 to cat-3 intensity and retain tropical characteristics well north of 35 N and the degree of hybrid or post-tropical transition may be a low fraction even at landfall but obviously very rapid thereafter. My gut says Long Island despite the Euro track. We'll see soon enough.

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Chan 5 still has the most likely track up into RI

as a cat 1 now if that were to verify what would the effects be for the NYC metro being that a kind of track like that puts us on the weaker side of the storm correct???????

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So it's pretty much all models vs. The GFS?

All the models are making some sort of error in my opinion....the GFS is cutting too far NE obviously, the NOGAPS/Euro are likely too slow with the forward speed and too far west on the track. The GEM is close to what I think will occur but its hook is also too sharp and track too far NE. I envision something between the GGEM/GFS right now with a much smoother hook to the N-NW, not a trajectory from 120-290 like they show, probably more of a 150-330 movement ashore, so basically NNW. I think the landfall point most likely is extreme eastern LI or RI.

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One positive for our area compared to Irene - this year has been markedly drier in the weeks preceding. So much of the Irene damage (at least inland) was from the saturated ground not being able to handle and other 6 inches of rain.

Not too minimize this storm in the least though. I have had my fill after Irene, looking for silver linings.

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