hurricaneman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Here comes the phase and north/northwest turn now at 102 hours. Storm is rapidly deepening...100 or more miles east of Hatteras. With a pressure in the upper 930s which is probably not going to verify, but shows the potential of a major maybe even an historical storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Remarkably consistent with 12z. Looks like a 960mb or so landfall just northeast of Cape May. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm seriously thinking that a sub 950 low is not as unlikely than I once thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 120 hours and it's sitting 25 miles east of DC at 950 something MB. Hard to read the pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Remarkably consistent with 12z. Looks like a 960mb or so landfall just northeast of Cape May. Wow. So pretty much like the 00z NOGAPS tonight except probably slightly further NE landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Remarkably consistent with 12z. Looks like a 960mb or so landfall just northeast of Cape May. Wow. It stays away from that north atlantic low and the block just takes cares of the rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So Sandy weakens from the 930s to 960 mb in just a few hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The EURO is remarkably southwest compared to other models. I am not sure if that has to do with Sandy's strength once she exits Cuba or what... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So Sandy weakens from the 930s to 960 mb in just a few hours? Yes, it gets captured and will eventually occlude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The EURO is remarkably southwest compared to other models. I am not sure if that has to do with Sandy's strength once she exits Cuba or what... The Central Atlantic ridge between Sandy and the ULL in the North Atlantic is stronger on the Euro than the GFS and GGEM. So the storm cannot escape south and east. The GGEM trended the Euro's direction in that regard tonight as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Well I hope this solution doesn't verify as I'm on the water about 30 miles north of landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 0z Euro 120hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Thanks, Earthlight. I got you. Can you post the 850 mb wind charts from the 0z Euro when they come out and if you get the chance and permission to? I remember for the 12z run today, the storm had 850 mb winds of 120 MPH when Sandy was just east of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Is a 960 mb landfall not good enough these days lol? Sounds pretty historic to me with potential to be a bit stronger IF this solution is ultimately correct. The gfs is really throwing that monkey wrench in and it's why confidence is still fairly low with this event. If it agreed with the other models, we'd probably start talking about the details of these major impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If the euro verifies, what would happen in NYC since Sandy is well to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The Central Atlantic ridge between Sandy and the ULL in the North Atlantic is stronger on the Euro than the GFS and GGEM. So the storm cannot escape south and east. The GGEM trended the Euro's direction in that regard tonight as well. Ahh yes, good point. I did notice the GGEM track due west at one point. Do you see the blizzard going on in western PA on the EURO? Insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If the raleigh wx maps had a 108 hour timestamp, we probably would have seen a pressure in the 930s, easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If the euro verifies, what would happen in NYC since Sandy is well to the south. Same question I was thinking but I would think it would push a ton of water our way?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If the euro verifies, what would happen in NYC since Sandy is well to the south. With the rapid strengthening and capture of the storm aloft you would most likely get a secondary wind amx to the northeast of the storm. The southeasterly winds would still cause significant impacts along all of the NJ coast and Long Island. A hurricane/hybrid with very low pressure (Assuming the Euro is overdone) landfalling in Sea Isle City from the West is close enough for significant impacts in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The Euro is really a Mid-Atlantic event now.. Places east and north of Block Island aren't in grave danger now, no? (as per the euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The Euro is really a Mid-Atlantic event now.. Places east and north of Block Island aren't in grave danger now, no? (as per the euro) As far as storm surge and beach erosion, as far as winds who the hell knows, its virtually impossible to know what sort of winds this will have at that point...if the always overdoing the MSLP Euro on these sort of transitioned tropical systems shows 952 on landfall it may actually verify at 970-975 if we actual truly acted out this exact run of the Euro in real life. I'm still tending to think we would see alot of winds in the 40s and 50s with some places seeing over 60, LGA with their funnelling effect down LI Sound would be one place prone to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFDL is similiar to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFDL is similiar to the Euro Holy hell.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This still makes landfall at 940 or lower on the EURO if you look in between the hourlies (Wunderground maps), and NYC still sees sustained TS winds (and likely much higher gusts). The BIG story this run is the SNOWWWWWW! Western PA, WV and Western MD get absolutely SLAMMED with 3-4 feet or more. That would be incredibly crippling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Even Richmond gets ~6" of snow this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The center of the storm actually makes landfall in Delaware on the Euro ...but there are still very strong winds along the entire NJ coast and LI. Obviously the worst of it in our local area being in Southeast NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro COC at 114 hrs, 934 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This is the 0z GFDL slp,precip, and 500mb, off the NCEP site at landfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 According to Wunderground maps @ hr117 landfall is on Rehoboth Beach, DE w/ a pressure of 940mb A few hrs prior to landfall @ 114 its just east of OC, MD with a pressure of 936mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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