Ellinwood Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Now a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 the Delaware landfall idea is interesting, I believe no tropical system has been recorded to make first landfall in that state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 You would have to go back to circumstantial accounts from the 18th century to find a Delaware landfall, yes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 At 144hr, heading NNW toward the Gulf of Maine and/or the Canadian western maritimes. Still looks like it will pop a coastal with the digging trough over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GFS gets a late capture to have extra tropical Sandy make "landfall" up near Maine. big step towards the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 We get almost no precip on the GFS. A little rain on the front. Very windy with snow showers on Halloween day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 soo many isobars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 At 144hr, heading NNW toward the Gulf of Maine and/or the Canadian western maritimes. Still looks like it will pop a coastal with the digging trough over us. What a solution. Landfall just up the coast from Portland, ME, and continues inland with a 962mb low almost to Lake Ontario. We get a chilly breeze. edit - uncomfortable Halloween trick-or-treating with wind chills in the low 30s on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 If the Euro holds form, I'd say it's time to start sounding the alarm for anywhere between Norfolk and the Canadian border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 If the Euro holds form, I'd say it's time to start sounding the alarm for anywhere between Norfolk and the Canadian border. Adam sent me his forecast earlier this morning - he had Delmarva to Maine as the "landfall" point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Whiffed by the GFS. Hopefully the capture happens as depicted on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 000 URPN12 KNHC 152047 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP032012 A. 15/20:22:50Z B. 14 deg 42 min N 096 deg 18 min W C. 700 mb 2902 m D. 98 kt E. 198 deg 6 nm F. 314 deg 90 kt G. 224 deg 16 nm H. 976 mb I. 6 C / 3058 m J. 16 C / 3056 m K. 7 C / NA L. CLOSED WALL M. C29 N. 12345 / 07 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF305 0103E CARLOTTA OB 20 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 99 KT N QUAD 20:29:30Z ; That equates to 113 mph winds, Category 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 FYI - storm mode is in effect... try to keep banter in the banter thread, otherwise Ill expect Midlo to highlight your posts too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Whiffed by the GFS. Hopefully the capture happens as depicted on the euro It was but it briefly opened the door around hr 108ish. h5 opened up a little and gave it a tug but not enough. Big ole neg tilt too. It was a small move towards the euro at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 DT this am it is possible that snow showers will drive into most of the central and Northern Shenandoah Valley on October 30-31 and some snow showers will reach as far east as Washington, DC Fredericksburg Virginia and Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 We need it to come in pretty far south or hope it scapes close when moving north or we're just going to get dowsloped and be bored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 000 URPN12 KNHC 152047 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP032012 A. 15/20:22:50Z B. 14 deg 42 min N 096 deg 18 min W C. 700 mb 2902 m D. 98 kt E. 198 deg 6 nm F. 314 deg 90 kt G. 224 deg 16 nm H. 976 mb I. 6 C / 3058 m J. 16 C / 3056 m K. 7 C / NA L. CLOSED WALL M. C29 N. 12345 / 07 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF305 0103E CARLOTTA OB 20 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 99 KT N QUAD 20:29:30Z ; That equates to 113 mph winds, Category 3. wrong system, that's from the EPAC earlier this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 wrong system, that's from the EPAC earlier this year Whoops, my apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Whiffed by the GFS. Hopefully the capture happens as depicted on the euro GFS has slowly come towards the euro camp each run. I think it is still safe to say that we will be close enough to get some effects. One of the ptype maps gets DC into snow. Not likely but fun to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 We need it to come in pretty far south or hope it scapes close when moving north or we're just going to get dowsloped and be bored. Compromise between the euro and GFS and go with NYC. Close enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GFS has slowly come towards the euro camp each run. I think it is still safe to say that we will be close enough to get some effects. One of the ptype maps gets DC into snow. Not likely but fun to see. Gusts to 45 FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 FWIW, GGEM slams into SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Would the intensity of a young Sandy have any effect on whether she stays closer to the coast or moves a little farther east? Just from reading threads about tropical systems in the summer, it seems that the more wrapped up a westward-moving storm, the more likely it is to turn right. Would there be a similar effect on a system moving to the north in the higher latitudes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Compromise between the euro and GFS and go with NYC. Close enough? Absolutely not. Somewhere between the mouth of the Chesapeake and DE Bay or bust! At the very least, strong consensus is building for it to come ashore somewhere between MD and LI. GFS didn't do it yet but I agree with your post after looking at the latest run. It's starting to toy with the idea of bringing it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Would the intensity of a young Sandy have any effect on whether she stays closer to the coast or moves a little farther east? Just from reading threads about tropical systems in the summer, it seems that the more wrapped up a westward-moving storm, the more likely it is to turn right. Would there be a similar effect on a system moving to the north in the higher latitudes? It's tough to say. I think the speed of the system is more important than strength (within reason of course). It's hard to make a storm like this make a left turn at all. There has to be some perfect timing of the trough position and tilt along with hl blocking to make it "buck the normal track". I'm not a tropics guy at all but I have to make a wag and say that a ts taking this kind of track will almost always curve out to sea in the oct-nov timframe. You would expect a an approaching front and trough to do nothing more than kick it harder out to sea. Not this time though. That big ole block means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Adam sent me his forecast earlier this morning - he had Delmarva to Maine as the "landfall" point. Oh that Adam, I think that's a pretty good cone for landfall. The GFS certainly has come west into it so there seems to be a building consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z GFS ensemble mean looks ridiculous... Sandy escapes way east and then slams on the brakes and returns westward and rams into NYC 120 -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPNA120.gif (brakes slammed on) 132 -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPNA132.gif (back west we come) 144 -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPNA144.gif 156 -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemble850mbTSLPNA156.gif (C PA at 982 mb.. viola!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Total cave to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z GFS ensemble mean looks ridiculous... As a guess, I'd say because it's still averaging in a few members who have it escaping out to Spain/Africa and then probably also has some members that pop a separate coastal low. Those members with the separate low and those that have a capture probably look fairly similar by ~150hrs if you pay no attention to where the monster low comes from, hence the appearance of a full capture. As a wag though, I'd say probably many if not most ensemble members will have a full capture given the trends over the past few model cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Ensemble mean 72 hr precip -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep72156.gif tiered precip (less in SW LWX CWA) to most in NE MD (which is pushing 4" QPF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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