WxUSAF Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 12z GFS ensemble mean pulls off the phase at the absolute last possible moment. Breezy cold rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 12z GFS ensemble mean pulls off the phase at the absolute last possible moment. Breezy cold rain for us. I think if it phases, it is likely to be far enough n for us to see mainly wind and maybe light rain. If so I hope it doesn't rain and just blows all the rest of my leaves off the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Surface temps a problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Surface temps a problem? That and lack of precip. this time of year, light precip with marginal 850 temps are likely to be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 holy **** youre alive Yes Im alive and here to wreak havoc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Not sure where Ian and Midlo are, but I'm going to step in soon. i was hoping everyone would get out of their system on this first threat. this stuff posted below is just as bad as the weenie stuff and just clogs threads with worthless posts for people looking for information. i'm glad to see a banter thread started hopefully it will be contained in there you all are a bunch of :weenie: ---------------------------------------------------- all of you --------------------------------------------------------- damage, lots of damage, damage -------------------------------------------------- I answered a question. Get over it -------------------------------------------------- I have no idea what you're taking about And yes, damagey damage ------------------------------------------------------------- Off hour run, throw it out ----------------------------------- Gas up the bus --------------------- We are about 8 pages behind too --------------------------------------------------------- If you listen to CT Blizz, if you haven't yet then you are behind -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Lock it up! ------------------------- ^ lol ------------- No one cares ---------------- Lame to another SNE special ------------------------------------------- IT WALLOPS WALLOPS ISLAND --------------------------------------------- This thread is complete now that Ji is here -------------------------------------------------------- shut your face ------------------------- sorry guess you didn't get the sarcasm in that whatevs --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Agreed - i was just surprised to see some of our regulars post more there than here ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ive noticed a few of our usuals are posting more in SNE than our thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 IMO, if the HPC mentions "big" storm, I think there is enough confidence to use the term. Pretty much all guidance has a bit storm. The main question is where it goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I'm waiting for Ian's blow by blow account of what it is forecasting. looks like a strengthening cat 4 up the bay that then parks to our north and dumps 3' of snow. err this might be banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GEFS individual members are interesting. The mean looks like Sandy phases with the incoming trough, but if you look at the members, you see that's not the case in almost all of them. Far more of them pop a separate low on the coast when the trough goes negative and that low gets a "boost" from Sandy. So, you still end up with a powerful low over NY/SNE, but it's NOT Sandy. http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html P.S. This seems like a far more likely scenario (if you want to play the climo/difficulty of phasing hurricanes game). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GEFS individual members are interesting. The mean looks like Sandy phases with the incoming trough, but if you look at the members, you see that's not the case in almost all of them. Far more of them pop a separate low on the coast when the trough goes negative and that low gets a "boost" from Sandy. So, you still end up with a powerful low over NY/SNE, but it's NOT Sandy. http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html P.S. This seems like a far more likely scenario (if you want to play the climo/difficulty of phasing hurricanes game). I think that's kinda what happened with Wilma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GEFS individual members are interesting. The mean looks like Sandy phases with the incoming trough, but if you look at the members, you see that's not the case in almost all of them. Far more of them pop a separate low on the coast when the trough goes negative and that low gets a "boost" from Sandy. So, you still end up with a powerful low over NY/SNE, but it's NOT Sandy. http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html P.S. This seems like a far more likely scenario (if you want to play the climo/difficulty of phasing hurricanes game). It does seem like a more likely scenario but can be a very wet one even if Sandy curves well to the right. I can't remember the storm but do have memories of flooding from such a low and inverted trough as a cane went by to the south. The long southeasterly and easterly fetch brings in lots of moisture. Wish my memory was better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Euro is west so far thru 78.. central Bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Storm barely moves thru 90.. now slightly SW of 0z at same time. Trough looks a smidge more progressive tho my 500 maps are not the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 102 due south of outer banks off northern FL coast. Bit south of 0z. Trough not as sharp.. block fairly similar, maybe a bit weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 108 east of 12z. Trough still pretty positive, was going neutral on 0z. 114 still slightly east of 0z position.. trough starting to go neutral. General movement northeast last 12 hours but might be turning back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 120 ~940ish off NC/SC border.. precip brushing coast. 126 still mainly drifting NE off NC coast. Should start getting captured soon. Slower than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 120 ~940ish off NC/SC border.. precip brushing coast. 126 still mainly drifting NE off NC coast. Should start getting captured soon. Slower than 0z. I guess it's not going to be the gfs or 12Z ggem solution based on your comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 132 north turning.. precip working into DC area.. fringe.. getting pulled northwest by trough. Lots o' isobars. Still due east of NC. SE of 0z. 138 turning NW.. center off VA/NC coast due south of Cape Cod. Light precip most of area, heavier near coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Looks like its being captured at 138-144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 144.. jog north. Heavy precip just offshore. Center close or slightly south of last run. Not much precip in area.. max near front in WV and right offshore.. about 1" to shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 150 still mainly going north. Center location quite close to same time on 0z. Coastline getting raked. Stronger than 0z. Off DE coast south of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 i think i see 940MB well east of va/nc precip brushing the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Perhaps this has been asked already - How long until the various upper air features are in an area of better sampling? A few days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Perhaps this has been asked already - How long until the various upper air features are in an area of better sampling? A few days? Adam told me earlier today that the models should have a better idea on what the s/w will do Thursday/Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 150 still mainly going north. Center location quite close to same time on 0z. Coastline getting raked. Stronger than 0z. Off DE coast south of Cape Cod. How does the phasing look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 156 heading northwest. Location still quite similar to 0z a little slower. 1"+ nearing DC, 2"+ east of bay.. 3"+ coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The euro being slower seems to be the biggest reason for it to be grabbed this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 wow this is going to crush NE. somwhere head on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Hr 156 looks like it's going to be a Long Island hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 162 heading into Long Island or Cape Cod area. There's a black hole of Isobars so I can't see the map. 1"+ qpf lines up with Potomac more or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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