Bob Chill Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 But probably a bigger wind field? I would think much bigger right? Not really an apples to apples here. I would think it would be just nasty here based on what the euro is showing. Especially post frontal passage. The gradient would be absolutely off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Now this may surprise a lot of you, but CTBlizz says it will "correct" itself and come north. Temper your enthusiasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 But probably a bigger wind field? I'd say so. Maybe the folks with super-special Euro access can pin point when the warm seclusion starts, but the wind field should get REALLY big as it transitions. Looks pretty big even when it's 100% tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Now this may surprise a lot of you, but CTBlizz says it will "correct" itself and come north. Temper your enthusiasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 So we basically have a Irene/Agnes type monster on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Euro is a bit warmer at 850 so not much snow this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 rainfall 8"+ ric to the eastern shore back to hatt. 6" from dc/bwi back to near cho snowfall 24" canaan valley with good snows along the blueridge 4"-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Remember that presentation that Brad did at the confrence? OC would be GONE if it were to be that strength (which it won't). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 2'+ jackpot over W MD, north central WV, into S PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Jesus (credit Sultan in NE thread -- from Ryan Maues twitter stream) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 85 kts (850mb windspeed) around DCA/BWI at 120 hrs per 12z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 How do 850 winds translate to the sfc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Jesus (credit Sultan in NE thread -- from Ryan Maues twitter stream) Here's a larger view of that 120hr, just for posterity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 How do 850 winds translate to the sfc? 80-90%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 How do 850 winds translate to the sfc? I'd say we would be sustained 35-45mph with gust to 70mph...at least. QPF in that period is very heavy. Should translate down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 How awesome would it be to have cold, wind-whipped rain resulting from a landfalling hurricane to our northeast? Edit: Sorry - I though both of my previous posts were in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 80-90%? I think its like 80-85 percent... so 85 kts * 1.1515 = 98 mph... 98 * .8 = ~78 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Until it gets pulled NW at NJ. That is the most interesting part Very interesting. But, the Irene-ish track as a corollary is notable. Although the temperature differences and snow potential is an interesting wrinkle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I heard from a MET...maybe someone can confirm that the NWS is asking offices accross the country to release weather balloons every 6 hours...if so is this unprecedented? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I heard from a MET...maybe someone can confirm that the NWS is asking offices accross the country to release weather balloons every 6 hours...if so is this unprecedented? This is true per NE sub Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 this is a pretty cool loop you can see NHC looks like they are adjusting west just like the GFS http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/graphics/al18/loop_5W.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1813Z WED OCT 24 2012 DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE SANDY.. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED BEGINNING 18Z THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012... ALL REGIONAL DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE SCHEDULE BELOW.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS CONTACT YOUR REGION OR THE SDM... ***SPECIAL 06Z/18Z SOUNDING REQUESTS*** WESTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... CENTRAL REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... EASTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... SOUTHERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I heard from a MET...maybe someone can confirm that the NWS is asking offices accross the country to release weather balloons every 6 hours...if so is this unprecedented? I haven't heard of it happening now, but it's a fairly common practice when a hurricane or other large storm system nears. Normally it's only a portion of the balloon sites that do it (ex. The SE US) not normally the whole country. EDIT: I see the some of the SE WFO's balloon data now. So at least the SE is launching balloons. EDIT #2: Ninja'd by Yoda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Question. Tornado potential, is there one, and if Euro was right where would it be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Question. Tornado potential, is there one, and if Euro was right where would it be? Delmarva I would think (over and east of track) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Delmarva I would think (over and east of track) That's what I thought. Would be a heck of a map. Tropical Storm/Hurricane warnings, High wind warnings, Flood Warning, Tornado Watch, Winter Storm Warnings. The list goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Well the tropical models finally come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 If the Euro verifies it will be hard to decide if I go to Oakland for snow or stay put for TS conditions. I would think the only location with any serious shot at snow would be Garrett Co. Whenever the models show snow for the Mid/At coastal plain in Oct, it's a joke. OTOH, I "think" the 5-day bulls eye modeling rule applies year round, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 116 mph gust just observed at Kingston Airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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