mappy Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 If only we could live in Florida where we can agonize over whether the high temp will be 91 or 92 and whether the popcorn convection will actually occur IMBY for 6 months out of the year. Now that's excitement! Yeah, this 4 seasons stuff is SO boring. I think it may be time for the filter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Thanks for your thoughts on the euro, Wes! Adam and I were emailing about it this morning - until the Pac s/w gets sampled, its really a big "guess" as to whether Sandy will go OTS or not. Hopefully by Thursday/Friday the models will be in better agreement. I'm more interested than yesterday as the blocking is impressive and would be pretty excited about something happening if I lived in New England as they could get big rains even without a direct hit if they get and inverted trough with any type of surface development north of the low even if it goes out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Borrowed from the Philly thread Yoda, you beat me to it. I think the number of gfs ens members bringing west at 06Z is worth showing as is the euro ens mean for any who haven't looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 ive noticed a few of our usuals are posting more in SNE than our thread must better weather posters there plus they are way more active. they have better weather. All we have in our forums who is a professional is Wes. They have like 12 guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 meh... I like having it calmer around here The big, consolidated threads can be difficult to keep up with sometimes. I'm liking what the latest euro ensembles are showing as far as keying in on the correct solution, with the GFS ensembles not being too far off in the grand scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 meh... I like having it calmer around here The big, consolidated threads can be difficult to keep up with sometimes. Agreed - i was just surprised to see some of our regulars post more there than here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Agreed - i was just surprised to see some of our regulars post more there than here. Ah... understood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 This place (work) has become weather weenie heaven. My boss was going cube to cube yesterday with his laptop going "Did you see the Euro?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The european ens has come quite a bit west and now gives much more support to the ecmwf making this a really interesting forecast. The blocking the ens mean shows and the negative tilt trough increase the odds of the storm getting captured by the upper trough so I think Jason's (CWG) odds of over a 50% chance of someone along the east coast being impacted by the storm is now a pretty good call. We're still so far from the event lots can change but the strong blocking makes amplification of the approaching trough more likely than not which may make the overall pattern a little more predictable than normal. Still, the timing of the amplification and the how fast and where the storm initially tracks will help decide where the system actually goes. So you're thinking 5 to 10" for DC? Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 So you're thinking 5 to 10" for DC? Cool. Don't you wish. Another day or two with the euro having such a solution and Jason my let me do a CWG article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 meh... I like having it calmer around here The big, consolidated threads can be difficult to keep up with sometimes. This. I find it easier to just flip through the regions and read the storm threads. If you had all the regions posting in one thread, it would quickly become unreadable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Don't you wish. Another day or two with the euro having such a solution and Jason my let me do a CWG article. Another day or two with the euro having such a solution and I may let you do my Sunday forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Agreed - i was just surprised to see some of our regulars post more there than here. Guilty as charged... We have like 3 or 4 simultaneous discussions going on at once all saying the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 After last year, I don't care to see snow in October ever again if it means such a pitiful winter to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 After last year, I don't care to see snow in October ever again if it means such a pitiful winter to follow I didn't think those two things were all that connected lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 If only we could live in Florida where we can agonize over whether the high temp will be 91 or 92 and whether the popcorn convection will actually occur IMBY for 6 months out of the year. Now that's excitement! Yeah, this 4 seasons stuff is SO boring. People in our region need to relax. Aside from the derecho, when was the last time we had some really exciting weather in our area? I'm not talking about a strong line of storms or some weak supercell action during an afternoon in the summer. When was the last time? The October snow last year? Sure, but that didn't affect the majority of the people that post in these threads. The remnants of Irene? Maybe. Aside from the derecho, you might have to go all the way back to the winter of 09-10 to see some really exciting stuff. People shouldn't get their panties in a bunch when someone says the weather around here is boring. It's an opinion that is no worse than the majority of the forecasts that are thrown around all year long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I didn't think those two things were all that connected lol Snow superstition my friend, snow superstition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Not sure which is more surprising, The euro or SNE Kevin (CTBlizz) getting 5 posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 People in our region need to relax. Aside from the derecho, when was the last time we had some really exciting weather in our area? I'm not talking about a strong line of storms or some weak supercell action during an afternoon in the summer. When was the last time? The October snow last year? Sure, but that didn't affect the majority of the people that post in these threads. The remnants of Irene? Maybe. Aside from the derecho, you might have to go all the way back to the winter of 09-10 to see some really exciting stuff. People shouldn't get their panties in a bunch when someone says the weather around here is boring. It's an opinion that is no worse than the majority of the forecasts that are thrown around all year long. It's like that all across the country. If you have the stats showing other areas routinely see more big events than the Mid-Atlantic, I'll take my words back. EDIT: I'd certainly take this over anywhere in the Southwest. Also, don't forget the 6/1 tornado outbreak (that I missed ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The european ens has come quite a bit west and now gives much more support to the ecmwf making this a really interesting forecast. The blocking the ens mean shows and the negative tilt trough increase the odds of the storm getting captured by the upper trough so I think Jason's (CWG) odds of over a 50% chance of someone along the east coast being impacted by the storm is now a pretty good call. We're still so far from the event lots can change but the strong blocking makes amplification of the approaching trough more likely than not which may make the overall pattern a little more predictable than normal. Still, the timing of the amplification and the how fast and where the storm initially tracks will help decide where the system actually goes. It's certainly got my attention having a reliable set of guidance like the EC ensembles actually improve from yesterday. I was thinking a possible solution of an inv trough and possible wave development along it giving us some rain and gusty winds...but the possibility exists for something more interesting. I'm kind of torn because the euro op and canadian solutions are so outrageous, but the upper level pattern gets highly amplified too. Anyways, I know this isn't the SNE thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It's like that all across the country. If you have the stats showing other areas routinely see more big events than the Mid-Atlantic, I'll take my words back. I'd certainly take this over anywhere in the Southwest. Oh, I get it that the rest of the country isn't exactly dealing with exciting weather every day, week or month. I simply stated that our weather is rather ho hum and I see nothing wrong with saying as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Oh, I get it that the rest of the country isn't exactly dealing with exciting weather every day, week or month. I simply stated that our weather is rather ho hum and I see nothing wrong with saying as much. And I'm saying that there's not many parts of the country that DO get exciting weather on a regular basis. Yeah, some areas get more snow and some get more severe weather and tropical activity, but I like to think that the Mid-Atlantic gets a fairly even blend of all of these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It's certainly got my attention having a reliable set of guidance like the EC ensembles actually improve from yesterday. I was thinking a possible solution of an inv trough and possible wave development along it giving us some rain and gusty winds...but the possibility exists for something more interesting. I'm kind of torn because the euro op and canadian solutions are so outrageous, but the upper level pattern gets highly amplified too. Anyways, I know this isn't the SNE thread. You're always welcome here. And you're seconding Wes forecast of 5 to 10". Bold. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 And you're seconding Wes forecast of 5 to 10". Bold. I like it. Like it too. That means 18+ up in fuzzieland, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 And I'm saying that there's not many parts of the country that DO get exciting weather on a regular basis. Yeah, some areas get more snow and some get more severe weather and tropical activity, but I like to think that the Mid-Atlantic gets a fairly even blend of all of these things. I'd argue that the MA's interesting weather occurs much less frequently than other areas, but I just don't have the time right now to do the research to support that and I also don't want to further pollute this thread with banter. When I do get time, I'll pull the data and post it even if it doesn't support my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 You're always welcome here. And you're seconding Wes forecast of 5 to 10". Bold. I like it. Don't get excited until I start posting those delightful Euro weenie maps like I did in 2010..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 If only we could live in Florida where we can agonize over whether the high temp will be 91 or 92 and whether the popcorn convection will actually occur IMBY for 6 months out of the year. Now that's excitement! Yeah, this 4 seasons stuff is SO boring. My wife and I are heading to Disneyworld on Nov 1st. Any disruption to our flight because of foul weather (snow) would be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 a couple of SFMR winds close to 60 mph on the latest recon pass, pressure down to 996 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Don't get excited until I start posting those delightful Euro weenie maps like I did in 2010..lol. but he gets a stiffy every 7 day out storm then goes into deep depression when it fails, were we talking about Randy or Ji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 On some of the more 'catastrophic' looking model suites you have to favor PA and elevations to our west for biggest snowfalls for sure. It's fun to toy with the idea of a large snowfall at this time of the year though here. Imagine this is two years in a row we have tracked such an event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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