wolfpackmet

GISS for January came in at +0.78° C. I was surprised it was this high considering NCEP reanalysis. GISS January was higher than GISS September 2017 though September was notably higher on NCEP reanalysis. Could be some sort of seasonal bias?

Jason-3 data through January 5 released today. 60/370-day running mean has been above the linear trend for over 3 years now. With La Niña conditions fading this trend will likely continue. Acceleration imminent or happening now?

Trades have shut down in the last week and weak to westerly winds are taking over. This has already had a warming impact on ENSO 3.4 in the last 7 days. Also the Pacific Meridionial Mode (PMM) is at record levels. High PMM values tend to precede El Niños.

January may be the first month below +0.70° C on GISS since 2014. Using NCEP as a proxy, January finished a hair below June 2017(+0.70). Would’ve been considered a warm month prior to the super Niño but a step down at this time.

Could be the first year since 2013 with all ONIs staying below 0.0°C so I expect a slight step down. But that’s a big if. As mentioned above, PDO continues to trend more positive after going neutral the 2nd half of last year.

Most people have no idea that the Paris Agreement is basically a fairy tale. Staying under +2.0°C requires negative emission technology that does not exist at scale.

New paper has +0.5°C (global land+ocean) of warming baked in once aerosols are removed due to a shift to cleaner energy. Assuming Schurer Et Al. 2017 +1.2°C over preindustrial. You could argue we’re guaranteed +1.7°C if we magically went to 0 emissions today. That’s also assuming ECS of ~410 ppm of CO2 is +1.2°C. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL076079/full

JMA released their 2017 surface anomalies. They put 2017 at 3rd warmest just behind 2015. Using NCEP/NCAR as a proxy, 2017 will come down as 2nd warmest on GISS. December needed to be the coldest anomaly of 2017 to finish near 2015 and it clearly wasn't on NCEP.

Trump openly mocked global warming on Twitter today. To stay under 2°C we have to start reductions of 10% per year beginning basically now(2018). That ain't happening. We will have to rely on negative emission technology in the near future which barely exists currently.

JMA came in at 3rd warmest November on record. 2nd warmest for UAH. GISS should come in at 3rd behind 2015 & 2016.

(2015 Sea Level thread was outdated) Latest observations from JASON/AVISO has GMSL plateauing after the historic El Niño. We'll see if this 2nd year La Niña brings a dip. Even with the plateau the trailing 2-month average has yet to fall below the long term linear trend for nearly 3 years. This looks like the longest such period in JASON satellites era.

Yea the aerosols need to make it to the stratosphere. We haven't seen anything significant since Pinatoba 1991. Agung's last eruption the aerosols stayed in the Southern Hemisphere. GISS aerosols

Yup totally clicked on the wrong link (Met. stations only). Editing now.

GISS came in at +0.90° C. 2nd warmest October on record, just a hair over October 2016. NCAR/NCEP was once a great proxy with an anomaly near May 2017. Even with a down turn in the NCEP/NCAR dailies it's going to take a pretty "cool" December to not beat 2015.

3rd warmest October on record via JMA. Going to be a close call if 2017 beats out 2015 for 2nd warmest. 2015 was just starting to torch in October- December with the major Niño in place.