wolfpackmet

GISS for January came in at +0.78° C. I was surprised it was this high considering NCEP reanalysis. GISS January was higher than GISS September 2017 though September was notably higher on NCEP reanalysis. Could be some sort of seasonal bias?

Jason-3 data through January 5 released today. 60/370-day running mean has been above the linear trend for over 3 years now. With La Niña conditions fading this trend will likely continue. Acceleration imminent or happening now?

January may be the first month below +0.70° C on GISS since 2014. Using NCEP as a proxy, January finished a hair below June 2017(+0.70). Would’ve been considered a warm month prior to the super Niño but a step down at this time.

Could be the first year since 2013 with all ONIs staying below 0.0°C so I expect a slight step down. But that’s a big if. As mentioned above, PDO continues to trend more positive after going neutral the 2nd half of last year.

(2015 Sea Level thread was outdated) Latest observations from JASON/AVISO has GMSL plateauing after the historic El Niño. We'll see if this 2nd year La Niña brings a dip. Even with the plateau the trailing 2-month average has yet to fall below the long term linear trend for nearly 3 years. This looks like the longest such period in JASON satellites era.