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Looking ahead to July 4th Wx..Ensembles warm to above normal


Damage In Tolland

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honestly, i couldn't imagine having to deal with that kind of heat...and then when you finally "cool down" it's like 90-100F. :lol:

I was in OKC last July for the hottest day in a very long time. I believe it was 112, maybe hit 113.

You have to channel your inner LL... embrace it. love it. crack open an ice cold one. Mindset goes a long way.

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I was in OKC last July for the hottest day in a very long time. I believe it was 112, maybe hit 113.

You have to channel your inner LL... embrace it. love it. crack open an ice cold one. Mindset goes a long way.

I guess it's just that you literally are helpless with it, unless you live on a lake or something.

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I was in OKC last July for the hottest day in a very long time. I believe it was 112, maybe hit 113.

You have to channel your inner LL... embrace it. love it. crack open an ice cold one. Mindset goes a long way.

it just goes on and on out there. a day or two would be OK...but man...dealing with that stuff for 2 to 4 months would be awful.

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I guess it's just that you literally are helpless with it, unless you live on a lake or something.

Well you can always go to the mall or somewhere with AC if you're really stuck.

The one thing I'll say is, on the southern plains it's usually very dry in that kind of heat. 110+ in Alabama? ouch

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Let's keep that ghastly heat dome off to the SW, shall we? I've no use for that. I'm a total wuss when it comes to heat. :fever:

Another reason to laugh when they say New England has such "severe" weather. Frankly, we are probably one of the more stable areas of the country when it comes to weather. Maybe PAC NW is more stable.

Indeed. While obviously not a met, people I know ask me about forecasts, weather & climate quite a bit, knowing of my interest and involvement. Anyway, when the subject of (NNE) climate comes up, I often point to our stability both in the current and perhaps into the future as things...well, perhaps change. Particularly in comparison with other parts of the country or world as a whole. While changeable dayt-to-day, we seem rather insulated from the real extremes. I swear eastern VT and western NH are one of the more stable areas in an otherwise quite stable region, if that makes any sense.

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Wow. I finally broadened my temperature horizon to look at the entire country for this upcoming period.......holy hell. Like 80% of the country is going to be baking in 90+ temperatures. With most of them being over 100. All the while we just sit up here in our little corner of the country and enjoy nice pleasant weather and the occasional shower or thunderstorm. I like extreme weather events, but prolonged extreme heat pushes my limits. they can have it.

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It's weird seeing a large area of 110s on multiple guidance for multiple days. The GFS yesterday had a weenie 45C at 2m in S AL on one day. Those progged 850s are nuts.

That they are, but gfs doesn't seem to be translating that to 2m temps in some places. I check DEC (have family there) and they've had Thurs-Fri H85 temps progged 27-28C for several runs, but surface temps only peaking 88-90, without RA or mucho clouds. Doesn't seem logical (to this non-met.)

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I’ll tell you what …for what it is not worth – haha – the 06Z frankenmodel known as the DGEX and 90, 90, 91,93, and 98 for BOS, starting at D4 through D9. Five day low end impact heat wave the ends bigger. In fact, that 5th day has a small bubble of 102F at HFD! And, it has a 4 to 5 day heat wave of 100-105F heat for the mid Atlantic – historic.

The Euro had this yesterday across two runs, though last night’s 00Z seems to toned down some. It still bring 2 days, back to back of 19 to 21C at 850 over us, with west wind, D4-5.

It’s interesting because these runs still appeal like a –NAO, as does the CPC nightly teleconnector prog. The key there to remember, I think, is that the planetary wave lengths are different (shorter) now than they are in the winter, so a –NAO may not come with the same pattern suggestion/implication as say, January.

Either way, big time heat will be flirting with us, and that also enters a possibility for MCS activity. Should be an interesting next 10 days.

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I’ll tell you what …for what it is not worth – haha – the 06Z frankenmodel known as the DGEX and 90, 90, 91,93, and 98 for BOS, starting at D4 through D9. Five day low end impact heat wave the ends bigger. In fact, that 5th day has a small bubble of 102F at HFD! And, it has a 4 to 5 day heat wave of 100-105F heat for the mid Atlantic – historic.

The Euro had this yesterday across two runs, though last night’s 00Z seems to toned down some. It still bring 2 days, back to back of 19 to 21C at 850 over us, with west wind, D4-5.

It’s interesting because these runs still appeal like a –NAO, as does the CPC nightly teleconnector prog. The key there to remember, I think, is that the planetary wave lengths are different (shorter) now than they are in the winter, so a –NAO may not come with the same pattern suggestion/implication as say, January.

Either way, big time heat will be flirting with us, and that also enters a possibility for MCS activity. Should be an interesting next 10 days.

DGEX did not update today at 6z. The one on ewall is yesterday's run.

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Well..our 1 day mild down today is over. Back to deep summer fun..4 and potentially 5 days of 90+ FTW

Wednesday:
Partly sunny and breezy, becoming seasonably warm, but the humidity remaining low. High: 81 inland, 82 shore.

Thursday:
Mostly sunny, becoming quite warm. Low: 58. High: 89 inland, 85 shore.

Friday:
Partly sunny, hotter, and more humid, a chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Low: 62. High: 93 inland, 87 shore.

Saturday:
Partly sunny, hot, and humid, a chance for an afternoon thunderstorm. Low: 66. High: 95 inland, 89 shore.

Sunday
: Partly sunny, hot, and humid, a chance for an afternoon thunderstorm. Low: 68. High: 96 inland, 90 shore.

Monday
: A chance for a morning shower then partly sunny and hot, but turning less humid. Low: 70. High: 92 inland, 90 shore.
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June could be somewhat closer to normal than July and August at least in the northeast, but it will be a case of widespread severe heat building up from the central plains into the east and then the pattern locking in until mid to late September.

Rainfall is likely to be considerably below normal in many parts, but I think it will be an active severe storm season in the northern plains, upper and central Great Lakes into upstate New York and northern New England, southern Quebec and New Brunswick.

So far. Roger Smith FTW..Let's hope his great forecast continues and everyone roasts July- early Sept.

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That is Kevin's go to weenie forecast.

He's holding onto the best forecast possible...he will never mention the Euro ensembles cool weather after the brief warmer weather . I'm sure he would mention them if they were warmer....but it looks cool after a brief warmup.

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