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Warm to cool to ? - May Obs/Discussion Thread


MN Transplant

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Doesn't seem we took that bad of a hit based on teh 1700z SPC mesoanalysis... -3 to -5 LI's... LL's 7.0-7.5 C/KM... ML are around 6.5 C/KM... 1000-1500 MLCAPE and 1500-2500 SBCAPE...

mid 60s DPs amd temps approaching 80

Shear is weak as ****ake mushrooms... so I guess we hope for boundaries

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http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0694.html

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0694

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE OHIO...MUCH OF PA...SRN NJ INTO DELMARVA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041726Z - 041930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAINLY UNORGANIZED CLUSTERS OR

PULSE-TYPE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE

HAIL AND STRONG-TO-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A

POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM

THE NRN CHESAPEAKE INTO CNTRL PA AND NERN OH IN A WARM...MOIST AIR

MASS AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM

S-CNTRL NY WWD ACROSS NRN OH. FURTHER S ACROSS CNTRL PA INTO ERN

VA...A SFC TROUGH AND WARM FRONT WAS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE

UPPER 70S INTO THE LOW 80S...MLCAPE VALUES ARE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG

AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG BY LATER THIS

AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP OVERCOME MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND

20-30 KT TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM AND

COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND

STRONG/GUSTY WINDS IN MAINLY DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.

..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 05/04/2012

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...

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Maybe the southern part of Ballenger Creek. I'm a mile SW of the 70, 270, and 340 and Mrs. J about a mile or two west of me...storms and rain avoid us like the plague. The MoCo and Frederick County lines are always the sweet spot.

I have to agree. We actually got split last night but at the last minute the storm riding 270 merged with the warned storm to the W and we did get a decent amount of rain for a few minutes. The video I did was of the backside of the storm moving into MoCo.

I was out around 11:30 and stopped to get gas on 85 right off of 270. It got extremely windy and the sky was getting dark to the NE of me. Did not amount to much up here as we are partly cloudy and breezy now. Still holding at 80 and muggy.

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the public doesnt care about verification. lightning is sever and we must have updates every 4 seconds about where it's moving!

anyway... the sky cover is still problematic. and spc is not that great at forecasting this area.

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Hail 1 inch in diameter or greater OR wind gust 58mph or higher OR tornado?

maybe you can ask lwx since they're the ones that issued the warning. I'm merely just posting what I observed. Last check, that is not only allowed on this board, but encouraged.
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maybe you can ask lwx since they're the ones that issued the warning. I'm merely just posting what I observed. Last check, that is not only allowed on this board, but encouraged.

...I was just asking...no need to be a jerk. Lord.

LWX wasn't in the storm. YOU were. So I was asking you if THEIR warning verified. If you want to be a jerk I can be one right back at you. Calm down...

You posted an observation that I was trying to clarify. The things I outlined are the requirements for something to be a severe storm. I didn't just make them up.

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...I was just asking...no need to be a jerk. Lord.

LWX wasn't in the storm. YOU were. So I was asking you if THEIR warning verified. If you want to be a jerk I can be one right back at you. Calm down...

You posted an observation that I was trying to clarify. The things I outlined are the requirements for something to be a severe storm. I didn't just make them up.

I already posted in this thread that there was no hail where I was and that I thought it was borderline severe. It's quite obvious there was no tornado and the average joe Isn't carrying a kestrel with them at all times. You asked a question you already knew the answer to. Carry on....
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latest HRRR still showing storms starting from 2PM on so I believe. #saveoursevere

Stick to surveying :P

No rain in the gauge tonight when I got home and nothing reported on wx bug at the closest location. Typical.

Had some rain although light at IAD when you were in chantilly, it fringed Dulles, then we got fringed again this afternoon with another shower. Saw some lightning flashes on the way home tonight to the NW towards Waterford and area.

just another typical day for us, no rain lol

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Definitely not as hot today as it was yesterday and the day before. Had some clouds for a portion of the day so it looks like that's what held the temps down, but it still was quite humid. Watching that MCS dropping in from WV, I may be woken up by some thunder in the early morning hours if it holds together.

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A thunderstorm passed through in the past hour putting down 0.56". I received an additional 0.68" from a storm Friday morning, plus the rain on the 1st puts May off to a good start precipitation wise IMBY. Warm too with CRW at +13.2 on temp departure MTD.

Night time storms are becoming a regular occurance lately.

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