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MN Transplant

Warm to cool to ? - May Obs/Discussion Thread

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Wind shear will be weak, but it looks like a good amount of CAPE will be around on Thursday for isolated pulse-type severe storms. Effin ridge.

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Oops. It's May now so obs go here. Mod rains this morning with the line of showers

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one storm went by around 1:30 am? the thunder was so loud it woke both of us up--and my husband always sleeps through thunderstorms. another loud thundershower woke me up sometime after 4 am--I didn't expect such loud storms.

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This is gonna be a nice weak... a warm (but not too warm) and somewhat humid period before a nice relieving cool air mass next week. If I can't have severe I'll take this.

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This is gonna be a nice weak... a warm (but not too warm) and somewhat humid period before a nice relieving cool air mass next week. If I can't have severe I'll take this.

SPC Day 2 1730 OTLK has us in SLGT risk tomorrow... thoughts?

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SPC Day 2 1730 OTLK has us in SLGT risk tomorrow... thoughts?

I think we'd be fine with a See Text. Stuff during the day could produce some small hailers, especially if they can play off of whatever boundary might be left over from tonight's MCS after it dies over the mountains. Some high clouds could linger over the region from tonight's anticipated storms, so that could inhibit some of the instability (which is a modest 1000-2000 J/kg on the 12z models).

Latest models showing an elevated cluster of storms coming in tomorrow night... some more hail possible with that, but the elevated instability isn't that impressive.

Shear will be on the weak side throughout tomorrow as well, so if we can't get the higher instability we probably won't get much in the way of severe.

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I think we'd be fine with a See Text. Stuff during the day could produce some small hailers, especially if they can play off of whatever boundary might be left over from tonight's MCS after it dies over the mountains. Some high clouds could linger over the region from tonight's anticipated storms, so that could inhibit some of the instability (which is a modest 1000-2000 J/kg on the 12z models).

Latest models showing an elevated cluster of storms coming in tomorrow night... some more hail possible with that, but the elevated instability isn't that impressive.

Shear will be on the weak side throughout tomorrow as well, so if we can't get the higher instability we probably won't get much in the way of severe.

Thanks :). I wasn't expecting any storms tonight... remnants of MCS from OV?

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Thanks :). I wasn't expecting any storms tonight... remnants of MCS from OV?

I don't think tonight's storms will make it east of the mountains, but yes those storms would be MCS remnants.

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Thanks :). I wasn't expecting any storms tonight... remnants of MCS from OV?

The models keep wanting to send an MCS at us, and then it dies off before it gets here. Sometimes they do hang on a little longer than numerical guidance would have us think, though.

Low 80s with low 60s DPs should not feel as gross as it does. I'm done with summer.

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Low 80s with low 60s DPs should not feel as gross as it does. I'm done with summer.

Extended summer >>> extended winter.

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The average high for June 11th is 83.

I might generate some 10 year non smoothed weekly numbers to see how accurate the 30 yrs norms are. Is our average really 71?

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I might generate some 10 year non smoothed weekly numbers to see how accurate the 30 yrs norms are. Is our average really 71?

Interesting

1981-2010 smoothed norm max for May 1-7: 72.3

Actual Average for May 1-7, 2001 - 2010: 73.1

pretty darn close

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for southern VA: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0219.html

ww0219_radar_init.gif

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO

INCREASE/SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NORTHERN NC

THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OTHER MORE PULSE-TYPE TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN NC.

MODERATE INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN

VA/NORTHERN NC WILL ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED MULTICELLS AND POTENTIALLY A

FEW SUPERCELLS WITH ASSOCIATED RISKS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

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Tornado Watch for Western WV Until ! AM

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 222...RESENT

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

630 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 630 PM

UNTIL 100 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS

OHIO TO 45 MILES WEST OF HUNTINGTON WEST VIRGINIA. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

DISCUSSION...ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR

SEMI-DISCRETE SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VLY

DOWNSTREAM FROM ERN IL MCV. ACTIVITY MAY BE MOST CONCENTRATED ALONG

AND S OF W-E WARM/STNRY FRONT ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG OR JUST S OF

INTERSTATE ROUTE 70. IN ADDITION TO ISOLD TORNADOES...SETUP MAY

YIELD LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AS 40-50 KT 700-500

MB WLY WIND MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV CONTINUES EAST INTO OH/NRN

WV.

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