lswx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Hr 39 a bit more north into SNJ and low hanging closer to the coast. Slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 So, despite surface, 500 mb looks better. Not trying to be too weenie like, but could it be better than it has at the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'm guessing 0.25-0.3" or so QPF at a glance, but if you space that over 6 hrs...I don't think it would accumulate much. I thought at first this would be better than what is depicted, so not sure about the actual prog..but that's what it has. I'd still go t-2 as you could still get one of those goofy bands and the NMA does take the temps to freezing. Of course, it probably will be the wettest model of the bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I agree. I thought we'd get into the heavier stuff as well going by the 30 hour panel. All in all, it is wetter, but you're right about the QPF over a longer stretch of time. It still looked like it would get a heavier band really close to the city, so it will be almost a nowcast deal possibly. Even this close to an event, the NAM doesn't exactly give me confidence. We'll see what the other models do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Really gets going once it is a bit off the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 total qpf http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=L We need to get into the blue I think for anything over 2", Coastalwx is right. It is agonizingly close and in a distance range where it's not impossible, even if its not modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It's another shift north. The precip sheild and the 0.25 line have now had two consecutive shifts north and are probably, best guess, 100 miles north of their 0z position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'd still go t-2 as you could still get one of those goofy bands and the NMA does take the temps to freezing. Of course, it probably will be the wettest model of the bunch. NAm kind of hints at the band getting close..agreed. I'm sure you could easily cool to 32F in those bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I agree. I thought we'd get into the heavier stuff as well going by the 30 hour panel. All in all, it is wetter, but you're right about the QPF over a longer stretch of time. trend baby, trend RGEM went north, now the NAM it's the start of the last minute shift we've been expecting and are usually on the short end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 It still looked like it would get a heavier band really close to the city, so it will be almost a nowcast deal possibly. Even this close to an event, the NAM doesn't exactly give me confidence. We'll see what the other models do. Yeah, we're at a point where we could easily get a non modeled 30 miles shift or expansion of the heavier QPF. I would like to see the GFS get wetter before I'm totally sold on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If the current NAM verifies, millions of people will have some sort of snowy day rather than virga. I just went from p*ssed to "Please, please...". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 We need to get into the blue I think for anything over 2", Coastalwx is right. It is agonizingly close and in a distance range where it's not impossible, even if its not modeled. of note, imho, is the fact that the NAM gets light qpf into Southern PA now even with decent previous runs it wasn't getting it that far to my recollection suggests north trend still very possible in my weenie mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 RGEM and NAM may look nice, but unless I see GFS shift north again slightly, I won't buy for a minute. A second yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 of note, imho, is the fact that the NAM gets light qpf into Southern PA now even with decent previous runs it wasn't getting it that far to my recollection suggests north trend still very possible in my weenie mind Yeah, the precip field is a little more expansive to the north. Don't know, but maybe this indicates the confluence to the north is a little less? Also, the sref mean total precip is a bit better. It also looks like it likes the idea of the western area of precip that has been modeled with thing being a bit more north and west, which I would think is a good thing. Several have mentioned that area and wondering how it wouldn't provide better results for us. Could we get some banding with that area as it swings through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yeah, the precip field is a little more expansive to the north. Don't know, but maybe this indicates the confluence to the north is a little less? Also, the sref mean total precip is a bit better. It also looks like it likes the idea of the western area of precip that has been modeled with thing being a bit more north and west, which I would think is a good thing. Several have mentioned that area and wondering how it wouldn't provide better results for us. Could we get some banding with that area as it swings through? Could be the 850 is stronger and more organized expanding the QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Could be the 850 is stronger and more organized expanding the QPF I guess so. I can't tell from those maps. It does look more organized, and perhaps a bit further west at 0z tomorrow than it did on last nights runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 RGEM and NAM may look nice, but unless I see GFS shift north again slightly, I won't buy for a minute. A second yes Do we have the 12Z RGEM, my source still only has the 06Z version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Do we have the 12Z RGEM, my source still only has the 06Z version. Just came out... looks in line with the 12z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The SREFs bumped just a little bit north at 09z, but the difference was out in WV near the 700 low. That part was further nw and maybe a bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Just came out... looks in line with the 12z NAM... I thought it took a step backwards from 6z and definitely drier for dc vs the nam which has 0.25 exactly for DCA. Either way, neither quite does the trick but perhaps a 30 mile bump can occur? I would not be surprised.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The SREFs bumped just a little bit north at 09z, but the difference was out in WV near the 700 low. That part was further nw and maybe a bit slower. Looks like the ensemble mean is just under .25 with the coloring suggesting there is only around a 0.10 inch variation around that mean if I'm reading the map correctly. That would suggest the members are clustered in the .14 to .34 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I thought it took a step backwards from 6z and definitely drier for dc vs the nam which has 0.25 exactly for DCA. Either way, neither quite does the trick but perhaps a 30 mile bump can occur? I would not be surprised.. Def drier than 6z... it looked like 5 to 6 mm to me... which is cloe to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varicweather Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 12z Nam also looks to be a bit slower continuing the snow well into Monday morning. Water vapor is showing the northern stream beginning to phase with our Southern low, which should shift the system North I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Looks like the ensemble mean is just under .25 with the coloring suggesting there is only around a 0.10 inch variation around that mean if I'm reading the map correctly. That would suggest the members are clustered in the .14 to .34 range. Yeah that seems right. Looks like the spread is a little higher right on the nrn edge, which makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Def drier than 6z... it looked like 5 to 6 mm to me... which is cloe to the NAM Yeah I see the better graphs map now. I just wish it didn't occur over 12 hours which is worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yeah I see the better graphs map now. I just wish it didn't occur over 12 hours which is worthless. It probably won't be uniformly spread out over that time period, at least that's what we need to hope for and that someone gets into a mesosclae band that gives them moderate for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well, gfs wavered very little from 6z solution. If anything, precip is a touch further south and not as heavy in central va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It probably won't be uniformly spread out over that time period, at least that's what we need to hope for and that someone gets into a mesosclae band that gives them moderate for awhile. Wes, that appears to be the x factor of someone going to bed tonight downcast only to end up with 4-6 in a renegade band. I don't know your microclime for these things but I figure those most prone know who they are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 LOL. I am literally fringed by 5 miles on the GFS. It's not looking good for the Northern Shenandoah Valley. Might be time to go enjoy the 60 degree day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 The delay might not be a bad thing as it really allows the colder air to wedge in. I'm still not getting worked up over the QPF as there is a closed 700 mb low on the models this morning moving from TN into SE KY. That is traditionally a very favorible setup for VA and the metro area with good forcing up over the cold dome. There's going to be a pretty sharp cutoff some where in the area between 6" and squat. I'm glad I don't have professionally forecast this storm...but I can't wait to watch the evolution today and tomorrow. Seems like the storm has be 36-48 hours away for 3 days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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