mahk_webstah Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It hasn't really helped in the Monadnocks this year...Pete's area has done much better. I'm amazed at how he's holding onto decent snowpack while we have had bare ground for weeks despite similar elevations. You really got gyped this year. First year in the Monadnocks and you get this bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 There is a reason why I have like two posts in this thread lol....these don't work out for us very often. In this case, I'm glad.....but just expect nothing out of these and about 1\10 times you'll be a little pleasantly suprised. Really wasn't expecting anything. I would have been happy with 10 mins of flakes. Alas, not happening this winter. Oh well...after spending last winter in Florence, I got into the mindset that snow wasn't going to happen- I'm pretty much back into that mindset now. 1/12/2011 was the last time I saw 3"+ (aside from the 4" of glop that lasted 12 hours in OCT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Thank god that N Stream SW on tmw's whiff trended a little faster so that I could see that sprinkle I just had. My prayers were answered....halleluja, holy $hit....pass the tylenol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 It hasn't really helped in the Monadnocks this year...Pete's area has done much better. I'm amazed at how he's holding onto decent snowpack while we have had bare ground for weeks despite similar elevations. ya we haven't had any post OCT coastal where elevation was a bonus...i think that is where your area stands out right along the nh/ma border (or 2-3 miles north) Pete being 150 feet higher? and in a elevated sorta quasi valley is def a better locale IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 ya we haven't had any post OCT coastal where elevation was a bonus...i think that is where your area stands out right along the nh/ma border (or 2-3 miles north) Pete being 150 feet higher? and in a elevated sorta quasi valley is def a better locale IMO Pete;s area excels at keeping snow pack...esp this winter (relatively speaking) since a lot of the torches have been light flow which benefits those with a protective barrier to the southwest...but even there its been horrible for actual snowfall....I mean I think nobody in SNE had had 3 feet of snowfall in DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Thank god that N Stream SW on tmw's whiff trended a little faster so that I could see that sprinkle I just had. My prayers were answered....halleluja, holy $hit....pass the tylenol. You're just being a debbie downer. I enjoyed the seven clouds that moved through here. Did anyone get anything that stuck? I've had two OES events and that storm in January. Everything else has busted incredibly. The suck cannot be stopped and anyone thinking it'll get better needs to take off the Nikes....the comet isn't coming this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 So who got jackpotted? This is so bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Counted 10 or 11 sprinkles, woohooo, what an event.......if this spring is 40 and drizzle all the time im going to lose it, we deserve to jump into comfortable weather atleast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Be objective, guys.....plenty of chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 So who got jackpotted? This is so bad Jackpotted is such a relative term, no? I'm sure Alaska Pete wrangled something on the order of 1.5-2", but for most everybody else ... the big squadoosh. Hopefully something interesting comes out of next week's possibilities, but I wouldn't place a bet on it. Suckiest winter ever keeps rolling along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I like the number Chris rolled out....probably a realistic 1\10 shot I make my record at this point. I'm actually ready to wager that I will and have felt that way for awhile....I feel the same way that I did in early Feb 2010......the season is just skunked and all the stat sheets and H5 plots in the world can not convince me otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I saw about 20 flakes this afternoon, and it got breezy... but no jackpot Models sucked even on this micro scale. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I like the number Chris rolled out....probably a realistic 1\10 shot I make my record at this point. I'm actually ready to wager that I will and have felt that way for awhile....I feel the same way that I did in early Feb 2010......the season is just skunked and all the stat sheets and H5 plots in the world can not convonce me otherwise. "Skunked" is a term I also use with regard to the intensity of tropical cyclones.....when after they hit their peak they transition through an ERC and just take on that "impure" look to the CDO. Folks will be calling for another round of RI and I just know that it won't happen. "Skunked" in it's truest essence represents a meterological entity, whether it be a winter season or a tropical cyclone, which you just know has emitted all of the excitement that it had in it's being and what you are left with is just an aura of "who cares"....bleh, next. Post ERC Hurricane Irene, post Jan winter 2010 and post Halloween winter 2012 were all skunked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 You are at about 600 feet? I think he is about 1250 feet. It def helps in the late March and April events. Yes, runs about 575 on one end to 590 or so on the other side of my land on google earth. Not sure how accurate it is so I usually just say about 600. That extra 625 feet seemed to get him an extra 3 inches in the 10/29 KU which is probably analogous to what would happen in a late March or early April event where I might get 2 or 3, he get's low end warning, while MRG get's a Halloween redux and ends up with 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monadnocks Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Around 5:30 this evening, the wind really kicked up in Dublin, NH and the wind was blowing the snow pretty strongly. I think the center of Dublin got about an inch - just enough to cover the icy areas. -monadnocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Be objective, guys.....plenty of chances. Keep spiking that football on Feb 18...I will add the numbers when its over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Keep spiking that football on Feb 18...I will add the numbers when its over. Lord knows I have been able to spike the ball on the bare ground all winter. 1\500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Lord knows I have been able to spike the ball on the bare ground all winter. 1\500. We'll see at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Lord knows I have been able to spike the ball on the bare ground all winter. 1\500. I mean no disrespect to Will at all, he's one of the good guys. A weenie through and through and I respect his optimism AND more particularly to look at each week/upcoming pattern with a clean slate. You can I don't do that...we see suck begetting more suck. That will usually work out from what I can tell over the years and I fully expect the rest of this winter to suck barring a major fluke like what's happening in NC. What is more striking to me is the fact that the last 2-3 years have been erased. The days of assuming the most snow are gone. Not sure what it was about those patterns that had the models consistently on the lesser side of things but we are now absolutely on the other side of it. Every storm is diminished/flatter in the short term regardless of the model. Euro will be most conservative..other models will cave to it at 24-36...and eventually 12-24 all models cave even worse. Shades of the 80s and 90s. People much smarter than us will get a handle on it in modeling/algos....but it is striking to me how certain patterns reveal model biases not seen in other patterns. SUNY MM5 earned its place as the model of last resort BTW. EDIT: I'd put your chances at 1 in 3. It's going to take a fluke event at this point. 1 in 3 you beat the futility, increasing rapidly each day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I mean no disrespect to Will at all, he's one of the good guys. A weenie through and through and I respect his optimism AND more particularly to look at each week/upcoming pattern with a clean slate. You can I don't do that...we see suck begetting more suck. That will usually work out from what I can tell over the years and I fully expect the rest of this winter to suck barring a major fluke like what's happening in NC. What is more striking to me is the fact that the last 2-3 years have been erased. The days of assuming the most snow are gone. Not sure what it was about those patterns that had the models consistently on the lesser side of things but we are now absolutely on the other side of it. Every storm is diminished/flatter in the short term regardless of the model. Euro will be most conservative..other models will cave to it at 24-36...and eventually 12-24 all models cave even worse. Shades of the 80s and 90s. People much smarter than us will get a handle on it in modeling/algos....but it is striking to me how certain patterns reveal model biases not seen in other patterns. SUNY MM5 earned its place as the model of last resort BTW. EDIT: I'd put your chances at 1 in 3. It's going to take a fluke event at this point. 1 in 3 you beat the futility, increasing rapidly each day. We'll add up the numbers at the end and see who is right and who is wrong. I won't spike the football in February. I made the bet on the premise that it is almost impossible for Ray to get less than 5" of snow from Feb 10 to the end....I might be wrong, but I made the bet and won't spike the football or submit defeat until its over. I think that is the most gentlemen thing to do. I will pay up if I'm wrong. Would you like to join the bet? Its one beer of any choosing. I'm confident enough in my bet to accept one more by tomorrow at 12am...so take it or leave it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I've never felt more kicked in the nads after this winter, but I just wouldn't spike the ball on Feb 19th...nevermind Feb 10th or whenever the bet was made. You never know when events just come by and dump 2" here or 6" there. Plenty of time for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Still kind if surprised the squalls sh*t the bed last night. I was wondering if maybe we lost some instability with the sunset and maybe that helped reduce the coverage....but there should have been enough instability to keep them going. Will surmised that perhaps the temp gradient behind the front was lacking and that had a role too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 LOL...As we thought..another phail..Now we get 2 or 3 rain events this week to ice the cake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 i'm so jealous of those living at higher elevations i'll admit it. 900-1100 feet IMO is impressive. 1350 -2k is f'n awesome (esp in WNE/upslope lake enhanced snows...) and above 2.5 K is just other worldly in New england. Elevation is the only reason that as I look out my window this morning, I see nothing but white ground. It's old snow and pretty darn crusty by now but at least it's there. 2.5k? I'm not sure anyone lives at that kind of elevation around here. Might be a few places--hunting camps and whatnot. No flurries here last night. Just clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Elevation is the only reason that as I look out my window this morning, I see nothing but white ground. It's old snow and pretty darn crusty by now but at least it's there. 2.5k? I'm not sure anyone lives at that kind of elevation around here. Might be a few places--hunting camps and whatnot. No flurries here last night. Just clouds. At 1.2k you live in a no-man's land according to Pickles' ranges. Patchy ice crust here ... should be nearly gone after the coming week torch/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Elevation is the only reason that as I look out my window this morning, I see nothing but white ground. It's old snow and pretty darn crusty by now but at least it's there. 2.5k? I'm not sure anyone lives at that kind of elevation around here. Might be a few places--hunting camps and whatnot. No flurries here last night. Just clouds. I've got a few friends who live up at Bolton Valley but that's only 2,100-2,300ft range up on Thatcher Road and the Access Road. There's actually a pretty decent little community up there for being so freakin' high up... and to think its only 25 minutes from downtown Burlington, lol. Living at 2,200ft on the western slope in Chittenden County is taking "living in the suburbs" to a whole new level. They get a legit 250"-300" a year (in a normal winter) up there. I'm not sure where you can live at 2,500ft+ though. If you go to craigslist.org and look up Bolton Valley there's usually quite a bit of condos and apartments for rent up there. Its usually occupied by UVM students or Med School/Grad school students who want to live somewhere cool. I looked at that area and still sort of want to live up there someday... it snows from mid October to mid May in most years in that neighborhood. But even here in the valley floor (700-800ft elevation) we've had solid snow cover since before Xmas. However we hold cold air quite well between the Spine of the Greens (where I'm standing) and the 3,500ft ridgeline of the Worcester Range on the other side of town. Those two barriers definitely help keep low level cold locked in during SWFE while it torches above the ridgelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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