CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 That's a really good vortmax with a 115kt jet at 500mb. Should be a good band swinging through the area, potentially. I wonder if the current band now weakens and then fires up again across western mass. Boundary layer sort of sucks for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Actually Kev, you may be the bag. Yup while Will is getting S+ and 1-3 I'm getting a weenie on the head and balls on the chin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Was it Dryslot or Dendrite that first mentioned this possibility a couple of days ago? At least this has been a recurring theme for several different modelszand runs I did mention it a few days back, I said that the only snow we would see would be from the northern stream energy moving thru but that has trended south to you guys down there, Hopefully somebody sees something out of it if its not to toasty.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Let's see... South of Rte 2 ... check, but only by a few miles Higher elev... check. Central and Western MA... check. Winter 2011-2012...big uncheck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 That's a really good vortmax with a 115kt jet at 500mb. Should be a good band swinging through the area, potentially. I wonder if the current band now weakens and then fires up again across western mass. Boundary layer sort of sucks for eastern areas. Yeah that stuff out in front I think it just the first pulse of snow showers or squalls...there should be another line forming behind it from the really scattered stuff near ROC...also have to watch for that "commahead" effect from that stuff over Onataio as it slides ESE. The models have been off and on showing that stuff potentially getting more intense...guess we'll just have to watch it and see who gets lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yeah that stuff out in front I think it just the first pulse of snow showers or squalls...there should be another line forming behind it from the really scattered stuff near ROC...also have to watch for that "commahead" effect from that stuff over Onataio as it slides ESE. The models have been off and on showing that stuff potentially getting more intense...guess we'll just have to watch it and see who gets lucky. maybe some meso low enhancement if that forms while crossing SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yeah that stuff out in front I think it just the first pulse of snow showers or squalls...there should be another line forming behind it from the really scattered stuff near ROC...also have to watch for that "commahead" effect from that stuff over Onataio as it slides ESE. The models have been off and on showing that stuff potentially getting more intense...guess we'll just have to watch it and see who gets lucky. Yeah I agree. That stuff looks like it will weaken, and some more forms along the actual front moving east. I think we may see a similar type of presentation, like we saw earlier. That is, a sharp line moving east possible with the nrn area looking more like a comma head deal. The NAM almost weakens it a bit as it crosses eastern areas, but either way..looks like at least higher elevations could pick up some snow. NAM actually likes nrn CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Yeah I agree. That stuff looks like it will weaken, and some more forms along the actual front moving east. I think we may see a similar type of presentation, like we saw earlier. That is, a sharp line moving east possible with the nrn area looking more like a comma head deal. The NAM almost weakens it a bit as it crosses eastern areas, but either way..looks like at least higher elevations could pick up some snow. NAM actually likes nrn CT. Yeah models aren't really sure where to place the stuff. Current RUC likes S NH. We'll just have to watch the radar later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Either way ...me in cambridge and scott in dorchester are gonna be prolly to mild to accumulate even on the very off chance we actually get picked to be lucky enough to wind up under any decent "band" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Radar def shows the first batch breaking down. Hoping for some more development as it moves east this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 SUNY mm5 likes N ORH county to NE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 LOL, that is a weenie band, but it probably has the right idea...just a matter of where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Has anyone referenced that model even once this winter? I am in love with it now...lol Weird scale... 1/100 inch but 20.5, 40.5, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 LOL, that is a weenie band, but it probably has the right idea...just a matter of where. It sin association with that commahead feature...it pops a little meso low that enhances that band. Most of the mesoscale models do it, but just differ on where it happens. Someone will probably get lucky and the rest of us will just get weenie flakes or a brief snow shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 If the NAM wins and I get 1-3 tonight..I will wear a t shirt that says I bang the NAM at the next GTG..courtesy of Mainejayhawk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It sin association with that commahead feature...it pops a little meso low that enhances that band. Most of the mesoscale models do it, but just differ on where it happens. Someone will probably get lucky and the rest of us will just get weenie flakes or a brief snow shower. Usually I'd rather be in that feature, but the "Squall line" looking feature could pack a punch too, if it does develop. Anyways, this is what it has come down to..lol. Tracking snow showers and potential squalls. Better than nothing I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Has anyone referenced that model even once this winter? I am in love with it now...lol Weird scale... 1/100 inch but 20.5, 40.5, etc .25 for you. Yesterday it had a similar output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 OT but the extended says futility is gaining traction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Usually I'd rather be in that feature, but the "Squall line" looking feature could pack a punch too, if it does develop. Anyways, this is what it has come down too..lol. Tracking snow showers and potential squalls. Better than nothing I suppose. I like good looking windex type events...like 1/28/10...the crappy ones are no fun to follow, but hopefully this is one of the good ones...it looks like it is not really lacking anything to produce some big squalls somewhere. The one we had that failed a couple weeks ago had insufficient LL moisture. In this winter, it seems like we're tracking a 3-6" event though, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 OT but the extended says futility is gaining traction. Really? i thought this looked good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Really? i thought this looked good That's a big rainstorm especially with the primary so far NW. But d10 on the euro ensembles looked awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I like good looking windex type events...like 1/28/10...the crappy ones are no fun to follow, but hopefully this is one of the good ones...it looks like it is not really lacking anything to produce some big squalls somewhere. The one we had that failed a couple weeks ago had insufficient LL moisture. In this winter, it seems like we're tracking a 3-6" event though, lol. That was a real waste of parameters on the last one. I know parts of the north shore got like a half inch, but it could have been so much better. There was actually some good CU to my northeast when that band went through. Hopefully this one is more widespread. Unfortunately, it may be too mild for much around my area unless it comes down hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 That's a big rainstorm especially with the primary so far NW. But d10 on the euro ensembles looked awful. I posted the wrong map, sorry I was referring to the follow up, oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I like good looking windex type events...like 1/28/10...the crappy ones are no fun to follow, but hopefully this is one of the good ones...it looks like it is not really lacking anything to produce some big squalls somewhere. The one we had that failed a couple weeks ago had insufficient LL moisture. In this winter, it seems like we're tracking a 3-6" event though, lol. Would you say this is the worst winter you've ever lived thru..by winter I mean discounting Oct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I like good looking windex type events...like 1/28/10...the crappy ones are no fun to follow, but hopefully this is one of the good ones...it looks like it is not really lacking anything to produce some big squalls somewhere. The one we had that failed a couple weeks ago had insufficient LL moisture. In this winter, it seems like we're tracking a 3-6" event though, lol. I hate to say it but ... we are cooking the boundary layer and actually laying in transmitted solar into the exposed surfaces quite a bit at that. Sun from Feb 15-28th is an overcome-able factor with relative ease; I am just not sure that we won't wind up with +3C within 50mb of the surface. Then again, if the WINDEX dynamics are strong enough, it wouldn't matter just the same. If a weaker complexion rolls through though, could see the air smelling like rain a little. I have seen +4C surface temperatures go to -1C blizzard conditions very quickly in severe WINDEX squalls, too. WINDEX can be as difficult to pin point as summer convection - much less what pans out overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Would you say this is the worst winter you've ever lived thru..by winter I mean discounting Oct easily and that includes Oct for me. Just zero action. i am so beaten my usual Winsexy excitement is muted to the point of who the fook cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I hate to say it but ... we are cooking the boundary layer and actually laying in transmitted solar into the exposed surfaces quite a bit at that. Sun from Feb 15-28th is an overcome-able factor with relative ease; I am just not sure that we won't wind up with +3C within 50mb of the surface. Then again, if the WINDEX dynamics are strong enough, it wouldn't matter just the same. If a weaker complexion rolls through though, could see the air smelling like rain a little. I have seen +4C surface temperatures got to -1C blizzard conditions in severe WINDEX squalls, too. WINDEX can be as difficult to pin point as summer convection - much less what pans out overall. I think this one is probably more for the hills at 1000ft or so. But, WINDEX events are pretty cool to follow. This one has some nice mechanics with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I hate to say it but ... we are cooking the boundary layer and actually laying in transmitted solar into the exposed surfaces quite a bit at that. Sun from Feb 15-28th is an overcome-able factor with relative ease; I am just not sure that we won't wind up with +3C within 50mb of the surface. Then again, if the WINDEX dynamics are strong enough, it wouldn't matter just the same. If a weaker complexion rolls through though, could see the air smelling like rain a little. I have seen +4C surface temperatures got to -1C blizzard conditions in severe WINDEX squalls, too. WINDEX can be as difficult to pin point as summer convection - much less what pans out overall. Well if we don't get any squalls of note, then we won't be missing out on anything anyway...weenie drops instead of weenie flakes...but given the WBZ heights are extremely low...if we real squall comes through, it would go from 40F to 31-32F in minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I think this one is probably more for the hills at 1000ft or so. But, WINDEX events are pretty cool to follow. This one has some nice mechanics with it. Yeah, if I were broadcasting to the public I'd broad-brush it with a few rain or snow showers in the area - more in the hills. right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Well if we don't get any squalls of note, then we won't be missing out on anything anyway...weenie drops instead of weenie flakes...but given the WBZ heights are extremely low...if we real squall comes through, it would go from 40F to 31-32F in minutes. Yes, exactly ... Also, when you get a little narrow BL warmth it can actually add to instability parametrics and thunder - believe it or not - can take place if you have a grapple/snow interface in the cores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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