Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 pulling sone deep moisture from the pac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yeah, I mentioned earlier this morning that it was much colder for that one. The real "item" I was focusing on was the blocking in the northeast. If you had 500 maps from 0z Jan 29 and then compared them to the maps at 0z on Jan 30, iirc, you'd see quite a difference in them, again, iirc. That's what I'd think is at least on the table here. Weaken that or speed it up, and I'd think the precip might gain some latitude. Also, do you have the time stamp for that map? I'll bet it came sometime late day Jan 29, because the 0z maps from the night before gave us virtually no precip, and my morning forecast on that Friday was for a 20% chance of flurries on Saturday that turned into 7 inches of snow. no.. not sure on time but says midday so probably midday. i think i have some other maps at home saved but that came from cwg. the gyre to the north and confluence with it zipped out with great speed that time. it could happen here too but so far there's not a super signal for that. still time tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Split the difference of all the different QPFs and DC gets maybe 0.3-0.4 snow and it's still far and away the best event of the year. Too bad I'm going to wisp for the weekend, but yea no one should be complaining if the storm delivers enough snow to cover grass blades fully... which >.2'' of precip can easily do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 RPM Model from Brad Panovich (@wxbrad): http://twitpic.com/8l5l8p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 RPM Model from Brad Panovich (@wxbrad): http://twitpic.com/8l5l8p The what from the who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The what from the who? I think it's an in-house model run by WSI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 JMA been posted yet? http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I think it's an in-house model run by WSI. Yeah it runs every 3 hrs, but I wouldn't lock in the output this far out..that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I see LWX is going with all snow now for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 that storm was much colder both during the storm and in the leadup.. not to mention it was almost a month earlier. so there are critical differences. this was the gfs a day out Forecast map for midday Saturday from the Global Forecast System model shows high pressure to the north of D.C. with the storm centered to the south. Credit: NCEP. How did that one end up? Did it shift north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 hr 42 much colder in ric was +4 now 0c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 hr 42 much colder in ric was +4 now 0c This storm is for you guys. Looks like mostly a miss DC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 hr 42 much colder in ric was +4 now 0c Make room at your place, Matt and I are coming down Oh well, I'm not too bummed actually. I don't think anyone should be. DC/BWI should get a little something out of this, just not the jackpot. #$@@#%^ NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Make room at your place, Matt and I are coming down Oh well, I'm not too bummed actually. I don't think anyone should be. DC/BWI should get a little something out of this, just not the jackpot. #$@@#%^ NAM. my place is empty i'm at canaan valley euro drops 0.50" ric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 How did that one end up? Did it shift north? Dramatically so. I had 6" IMBY (not far from BWI) and I think that 4-8" was fairly representative of most of the LWX area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Dramatically so. I had 6" IMBY (not far from BWI) and I think that 4-8" was fairly representative of most of the LWX area. I remember that that storm was the appetizer for the twin blizzards. Unbelievable stretch of winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 That is what happens when DMC takes over along the front. I wouldn't go jumping off bridges across the north yet though. DMC can wreak havoc on any one deterministic model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 That is what happens when DMC takes over along the front. I wouldn't go jumping off bridges across the north yet though. DMC can wreak havoc on any one deterministic model run. Sorry, what's DMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Sorry, what's DMC? Sorry bad habit of mine. Deep, moist convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Thanks. Could I trouble you to explain a bit more? Are you saying that deep moist convection at the nothern front causes a sharper cut off due to, I guess, 'burn out' issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Great points raised.. I think this will come down to just monitoring the models, because this storm looks be really big with lots of moisture.. Definitely will monitoring satellite and radar imagery tomorrow. But back to the Euro, to me its precip shield should be larger. I do think the track will be near the Virginia Capes. Just some thoughts there. We'll see what happens. That is what happens when DMC takes over along the front. I wouldn't go jumping off bridges across the north yet though. DMC can wreak havoc on any one deterministic model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Thanks. Could I trouble you to explain a bit more? Are you saying that deep moist convection at the nothern front causes a sharper cut off due to, I guess, 'burn out' issues? I kind of discussed it to you in post 720 http://www.americanw...ost__p__1381549 But in short, how moist convection develops across the warm sector in positive tilt waves can have large influences in how energy is distributed during cyclone development. Large MCS's that develop along the warm front can displace large amounts of energy away from the cyclone center/upper shortwave/anomaly which can inhibit northward moisture transport as well as change advective processes which also play a role in cyclone development. Negative tilt troughs/waves are not affected nearly as much in a negative manner like this, and in fact, usually are enhanced by the presence of deep, moist convection since it has a tendency to "feed" directly into the upper cyclone which results in rapid intensification/bombing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I kind of discussed it to you in post 720 Ah, but you see, this time, I'm paying attention! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Guess the Euro is not very good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Ugg, I'm on the northern Fringe now-- Yikes. .4 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I kind of discussed it to you in post 720 http://www.americanw...ost__p__1381549 But in short, how moist convection develops across the warm sector in positive tilt waves can have large influences in how energy is distributed during cyclone development. Large MCS's that develop along the warm front can displace large amounts of energy away from the cyclone center/upper shortwave/anomaly which can inhibit northward moisture transport as well as change advective processes which also play a role in cyclone development. Negative tilt troughs/waves are not affected nearly as much in a negative manner like this, and in fact, usually are enhanced by the presence of deep, moist convection since it has a tendency to "feed" directly into the upper cyclone which results in rapid intensification/bombing. In case anyone is reading who wants a primer on these terms, this may help: http://www.theweathe.../habyhints/127/ or http://www.usatoday.com/weather/tg/wtrough/wnegtilt.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 some numbers were thrown around about the euro, I can see the txt output... .06 liquid for IAD, only .31 for Richmond, not sure where the higher numbers were coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Here's a snippet from HPC's latest discussions: " HOWEVER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...INCLUDING THE INITIALIZATION/BEHAVIOR/EVOLUTION OF SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HAVE A DIRECT BEARING ON THE PRECISE TRACK/DEPTH OF THE LOW. ADDITIONALLY...MUCH IS UNCLEAR ABOUT THE ANTICIPATED QPF AND INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTIVE PROCESSES AND ACCOMPANYING NORTHWARD MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN SUMMARY...THE ACCOMPANYING SPLIT-FLOW REGIME APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED PREDICTABILITY ...AND AS SUCH...A DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS THAT MAXIMIZES THE USE OF HIGHER SPATIAL RESOLUTION WHILE PROVIDING MULTIPLE DYNAMICAL CORES/MODEL PHYSICS PACKAGES TO INCREASE THE DISPERSION...SEEMS MOST PRUDENT. THIS APPROACH IS BEST APPROXIMATED BY THE 12Z GFS...AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...ALBEIT WITH LESS DEFINITION. REFER TO THE QPFPFD AND QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION ON QPF AND WINTER WEATHER PREFERENCES. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON TRACK...BUT BELOW AVERAGE ON TIMING" http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergeek Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Help a dummy out here. What are they saying? Here's a snippet from HPC's latest discussions: " HOWEVER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...INCLUDING THE INITIALIZATION/BEHAVIOR/EVOLUTION OF SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL HAVE A DIRECT BEARING ON THE PRECISE TRACK/DEPTH OF THE LOW. ADDITIONALLY...MUCH IS UNCLEAR ABOUT THE ANTICIPATED QPF AND INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTIVE PROCESSES AND ACCOMPANYING NORTHWARD MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN SUMMARY...THE ACCOMPANYING SPLIT-FLOW REGIME APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED PREDICTABILITY ...AND AS SUCH...A DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS THAT MAXIMIZES THE USE OF HIGHER SPATIAL RESOLUTION WHILE PROVIDING MULTIPLE DYNAMICAL CORES/MODEL PHYSICS PACKAGES TO INCREASE THE DISPERSION...SEEMS MOST PRUDENT. THIS APPROACH IS BEST APPROXIMATED BY THE 12Z GFS...AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...ALBEIT WITH LESS DEFINITION. REFER TO THE QPFPFD AND QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION ON QPF AND WINTER WEATHER PREFERENCES. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON TRACK...BUT BELOW AVERAGE ON TIMING" http://www.hpc.ncep....php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Help a dummy out here. What are they saying? They favor the GFS but basically they are sayign the models will have a tough time because this storm will have a lot of convection and that displaces energy and can change the course of the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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