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Weekend Storm Discussion Part II, 2/18-2/19


stormtracker

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I think what is interesting with the nam is the changes in the 2 areas of precip. Of course, the one to the N&W is the most important for us. 18z has that area less robust and that's why we have less precip. However, it looked a little better when it was over TN than the 12z run. I hate seeing it kinda fizzle and shrink as it exits wv and goes across our area.

The area to the E of the slp is also less robust. I don't know enough to expand much here but I assume we hope for less convection in the warm sector and that appeared to what happened with the 18z run.

The issue in your first paragraph might also be associated energy transferring to the Coastal low from the Tenn Valley s/w as Coastal moves out. But yeah, hope for less convection too. Since it is going to be too warm in my region at lower elevations, hoping y'all get slammed up there. Good luck!

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Please mark my words: "Models should shift north at 0Z tonight and we will be back in the snow zone, 4-8 inches for D.C. is my call right now and I will not flip-flop with the models"

sounds like you're headed for a bust

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Should we expect models to come into better agreement when we actually get a slp in place along the Gulf Coast? Aren't the models acting similar to how they would with a tropical system's path before an LLC is well formed? Meaning if the slp forms a bit north of where a particular model predicts, could we see that model shift north?

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Do people ever ever ever learn? Its crazy at this point to give up or make statements like "its over", or if 0z doesnt trend north....it could stay south 0z and 12z and then jump north during the day tomorrow on the guidance. Models have done this time and again. It could very well stay south, and in a nina there is an increased risk of that, but we all have seen this before and know it could come back north at the last minute.

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Goes well with your warm and wet bias. Total now cast event all convection dependent, best of luck, look forward to some of your best pics. Heavy Wet snow with dry fluff powder coating makes for some beautiful photos.

I think you mean my almost always right bias. Same sort of thing around here unfortunately. :(

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I remember last year there was a storm in late Feb that was suppose to give us 5 inches in the DCA area...there was a shift N at the last minute and it got HGR and Fredrick, MD while we got mostly sleet and no snow accumulation

yep, and a lot more we can't even keep track of them

but occasionally they stay south when progged to stay south

gotta' hope odds work in our favor this time

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