EastCoast NPZ Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Bob, we need a weak NINO (at least)....bottom line anything short of that and we are assured a "meh" at best winter, or another dog and that's not to say a NINO will guarantee us anything great, just give a us a fighting chance at snow when 850's are -2 or colder and thicknesses are 540 or lower, unlike this year It seems like we need a lot of things to avoid a crappy winter around here: weak nino based in just the right spot, + PNA, -NOA, -OA, etc, etc. I guess that explains why 6 out of every 7 winters suck for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The good news is we are probably unlikely to see this bad a winter too soon. We've had two others nearly as bad in just the last decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 We've had two others nearly as bad in just the last decade. Well I'm talking specific. Looks like we have a good shot to stay at 2" at DC at this pt which is third worst on record. Of course bad winters are pretty much a norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The good news is we are probably unlikely to see this bad a winter too soon. Exactly, if we get 6" next year it will be a blockbuster winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 meh, you should talk with some of those forecasts this year I'll be giving myself a F for my forecast. Just before that, I had one of the best forecasts for summer 2011. How's the -QBO doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Bob, we need a weak NINO (at least)....bottom line anything short of that and we are assured a "meh" at best winter, or another dog and that's not to say a NINO will guarantee us anything great, just give a us a fighting chance at snow when 850's are -2 or colder and thicknesses are 540 or lower, unlike this year I really hate to say this Mitch...but even a weak Nino after a Nina (or multi year nina) doesn't really show all that much promise. Dataset is tiny but other than 57-58, nothing really stands out. The best enso match for a weak Nino following a multi-year Nina would be 76-77. Didn't really get close to climo snow in DC or mby. 68-69 would stand out as a decent analog IF we have a weak Nino because the preceding Nina was quite weak. Winter of 68-69 was a nickle and dime event year for sure. Looking at enso alone, it appears the better Nino's are the ones that follow a neutral that follow a Nina. 86-87, 02-03, & 09-10 all had that recipe. Hard to say if it really tells much because the set is so small but all 3 of those winters kicked some serious butt. After seeing what happened this year, it wasn't really enso that killed us. Other teleconnections totally overwhelmed the pattern (generally speaking). The majority of the season behaved more like a Nino from a storm track and precip perspective. The NAO was particularly destructive for us but snow lovers in europe experienced a winter comparable to what we saw here in 09-10. Give me a winter dominated by a -nao and I could care less what enso looks like. Am I really discussing next winter? I think I need to seek help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 ENSO is going to play a heavy role in deciding our fate so that will keep my interest quite a bit this summer. I'm working on stats and data for each of the 3 possible outcomes and see what shakes out. As been said many times already, 3rd year Nina's or neutral after multi year Nina's don't offer much excitement. However, after a virtual snowless winter imby, a single storm that covers the grass next year will be a win. Just as some folks got overconfident this year (relatively speaking) based on the supposed -NAO regime, I think many will get spooked by what happened this year. That's completely understandable, and it's just one reason why I'd hate to be in a long-term forecaster's shoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Well I'm talking specific. Looks like we have a good shot to stay at 2" at DC at this pt which is third worst on record. Of course bad winters are pretty much a norm. Sad, but true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I'll be giving myself a F for my forecast. Just before that, I had one of the best forecasts for summer 2011. How's the -QBO doing? refreshing, an accurate assessment as for the QBO, if you read the thread, I made it clear it was based purely on prior years with similar QBO numbers were pretty good around here; I also said that with a 2nd year NINA, it was all we've got maybe if you quit trying to twist my QBO thread into something it wasn't, like you did in many of your forecast assessments, you'd be better off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I really hate to say this Mitch...but even a weak Nino after a Nina (or multi year nina) doesn't really show all that much promise. Dataset is tiny but other than 57-58, nothing really stands out. The best enso match for a weak Nino following a multi-year Nina would be 76-77. Didn't really get close to climo snow in DC or mby. 68-69 would stand out as a decent analog IF we have a weak Nino because the preceding Nina was quite weak. Winter of 68-69 was a nickle and dime event year for sure. Looking at enso alone, it appears the better Nino's are the ones that follow a neutral that follow a Nina. 86-87, 02-03, & 09-10 all had that recipe. Hard to say if it really tells much because the set is so small but all 3 of those winters kicked some serious butt. After seeing what happened this year, it wasn't really enso that killed us. Other teleconnections totally overwhelmed the pattern (generally speaking). The majority of the season behaved more like a Nino from a storm track and precip perspective. The NAO was particularly destructive for us but snow lovers in europe experienced a winter comparable to what we saw here in 09-10. Give me a winter dominated by a -nao and I could care less what enso looks like. Am I really discussing next winter? I think I need to seek help. Bob, I didn't say the NINO would be good; in fact I said it was no guarantee I did say I would rather it than another NINA whether it's a NINA or NINO, it will probably be weak so the "other factors" will certainly dominate it would seem and we are definitely way to early to discuss the "other factors" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Oh well weather is one of things we cannot control therefore no need to get too up or down about it. Life balances out and as we have had suck a** winters like this one and kick a** winters like 2009-2010, the future holds both cases for us as well as everything in-between. I just hope our next kick a** winter is not too far in the future as I am not getting any younger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 refreshing, an accurate assessment as for the QBO, if you read the thread, I made it clear it was based purely on prior years with similar QBO numbers were pretty good around here; I also said that with a 2nd year NINA, it was all we've got maybe if you quit trying to twist my QBO thread into something it wasn't, like you did in many of your forecast assessments, you'd be better off The QBO and La Nina... because the AO, NAO, PNA, EPO, WPO, MJO, GWO, PDO, AMO, etc. don't exist. You made it clear in posts in different threads that you were relying on the E QBO to give us a good year and disregarded what the other indices were doing WRT our snow chances. Bob, we need a weak NINO (at least)....bottom line anything short of that and we are assured a "meh" at best winter, or another dog and that's not to say a NINO will guarantee us anything great, just give a us a fighting chance at snow when 850's are -2 or colder and thicknesses are 540 or lower, unlike this year And now here you're putting it all on the line based on getting into an El Nino, once again disregarding all of the other indices. Do you need to be reminded that DCA's 3rd highest seasonal snowfall came from a weak La Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Just as some folks got overconfident this year (relatively speaking) based on the supposed -NAO regime, I think many will get spooked by what happened this year. That's completely understandable, and it's just one reason why I'd hate to be in a long-term forecaster's shoes. Looking at the numbers, I think the most recent -nao regime has been given way to much credit. It pales in comparison to the 61-66 stretch and this year is record positive. I'm as guilty as the next guy thinking that we had entered into a long term -nao like the 60's. It's just not the case. 09-10 was just a heck of a combination of just about everything. 10-11 shut the cold valve off pretty abruptly in Feb and that was that. Because I have obvious problems with my need to look into the #'s, here is the average nao for the DJFM period for the 61-66 stretch and 08-11 for comparison: 61-62: -.698 62-63: -1.208 63-64: -1.375 64-65: -.833 65-66: -.300 08-09: +.085 09-10: -1.475 10-11: -.355 05-06 was a negative overall year but 06-07 & 07-08 were positive so you can see that the current "-NAO" regime is really pretty lame when you boil it down. This year is atrociously positive. Now that I looked closer at it, I don't even think we were in any type of long term -nao regime. 2 years is pretty weak imo. I would be interested to know what contributed to such a long -noa stretch in the 60's. It was pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Just as some folks got overconfident this year (relatively speaking) based on the supposed -NAO regime, I think many will get spooked by what happened this year. That's completely understandable, and it's just one reason why I'd hate to be in a long-term forecaster's shoes. imho, it can't be done on any consistent basis, but it's entertaining to discuss and even hindsight can't always prove or disprove why any forecast went right/wrong in the end, we shouldn't be surprised at the failure of long range forecasting considering some of the 24-48 hr forecasts we had for snow this year in the end, it's all Wes' fault Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Looking at the numbers, I think the most recent -nao regime has been given way to much credit. It pales in comparison to the 61-66 stretch and this year is record positive. I'm as guilty as the next guy thinking that we had entered into a long term -nao like the 60's. It's just not the case. 09-10 was just a heck of a combination of just about everything. 10-11 shut the cold valve off pretty abruptly in Feb and that was that. Because I have obvious problems with my need to look into the #'s, here is the average nao for the DJFM period for the 61-66 stretch and 08-11 for comparison: 61-62: -.698 62-63: -1.208 63-64: -1.375 64-65: -.833 65-66: -.300 08-09: +.085 09-10: -1.475 10-11: -.355 05-06 was a negative overall year but 06-07 & 07-08 were positive so you can see that the current "-NAO" regime is really pretty lame when you boil it down. This year is atrociously positive. Now that I looked closer at it, I don't even think we were in any type of long term -nao regime. 2 years is pretty weak imo. I would be interested to know what contributed to such a long -noa stretch in the 60's. It was pretty impressive. That's easy. I hadn't been born yet, so the winters were an endless party around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 imho, it can't be done on any consistent basis, but it's entertaining to discuss and even hindsight can't always prove or disprove why any forecast went right/wrong in the end, we shouldn't be surprised at the failure of long range forecasting considering some of the 24-48 hr forecasts we had for snow this year in the end, it's all Wes' fault It is really entertainting to discuss and the best part about being an enthusiast aka weenie is that we can be wrong and nobody gives a crap. Well, as long as the wennie has a decent general knowledge of weather. Winter storm "pop in" experts who don't add a microgram of analysis kinda annoy me. The tough part with Wes is you just can't refute his analysis. He was a dream smasher this year but he was the shizzle during 09-10. Quite an asset to have active in our forum though. He's like the weenie warden. We'd be out of control without him in the winter. lol Don S is a heck of a med to lr enthusiast. I'll never grow tired of reading his stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 GGEM has a nice soaking rain in 5 days in case anyone cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 GGEM has a nice soaking rain in 5 days in case anyone cares. That might be the upcoming mid Atlantic super outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Most LR forecasters are pretty close to quacks and even good ones get extremely lenient grading on their forecasts much of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Bob, we need a weak NINO (at least)....bottom line anything short of that and we are assured a "meh" at best winter, or another dog and that's not to say a NINO will guarantee us anything great, just give a us a fighting chance at snow when 850's are -2 or colder and thicknesses are 540 or lower, unlike this year Sorry, but I don't think that will ever be true. It may be more likely, but I don't think assured. I do agree with the second part of that sentence. It sure seems to be all related to precip here. Not type, but how much. We've had about 2.2 inches of precip over here since New Year's. That's not going to be much snow in a winter with marginal temps even if it all fell as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The NE thread on their snow event is like a replay of ours from last week...weenies hugging and doing other private things to the NAM and pretending the most recent Euro and GFS guidance doesn't really exist. Red taggers ducking in every so often to try and temper enthusiasm. Seems like old times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Sorry, but I don't think that will ever be true. It may be more likely, but I don't think assured. I do agree with the second part of that sentence. It sure seems to be all related to precip here. Not type, but how much. We've had about 2.2 inches of precip over here since New Year's. That's not going to be much snow in a winter with marginal temps even if it all fell as snow. would "odds strongly favor" a meh winter or worse worked then, because I don't believe at BWI there are any winters with average snow or better during a 3rd NINA or neutral after 2 NINAs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 MRG was in the process of typing a post and I banned him from the Mid Atl subforum. See yall in the AM Oh, the irony...I guess I was right with my post; somebody's got a problem and it has nothing to do with snow http://www.americanw...ost__p__1413498 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 The NE thread on their snow event is like a replay of ours from last week...weenies hugging and doing other private things to the NAM and pretending the most recent Euro and GFS guidance doesn't really exist. Red taggers ducking in every so often to try and temper enthusiasm. Seems like old times. Denial knows no subforum boundary. I'm starting to think that some evil meteorologist self-produces the NAM output just to lather up the weenies. Luckily, we in the Mid Atlantic forum never take the NAM seriously.....well almost never. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Oh, the irony...I guess I was right with my post; somebody's got a problem and it has nothing to do with snow http://www.americanw...ost__p__1413498 one thing I'll give marge a compliment on is if the design and intent of his posts are crafted to actually draw the exact response that he seems so good at doing and so quick to deny then he is a pretty clever poster. it takes a fair amount of skill to walk the line that he does. too bad he uses his skills so nefariously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 If only models bust as big on temps Tomorrow as they did on Friday, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 The NE thread on their snow event is like a replay of ours from last week...weenies hugging and doing other private things to the NAM and pretending the most recent Euro and GFS guidance doesn't really exist. Red taggers ducking in every so often to try and temper enthusiasm. Seems like old times. Cept its actually going to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 The NE thread on their snow event is like a replay of ours from last week...weenies hugging and doing other private things to the NAM and pretending the most recent Euro and GFS guidance doesn't really exist. Red taggers ducking in every so often to try and temper enthusiasm. Seems like old times. what kind of private things? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 The good news is we are probably unlikely to see this bad a winter too soon. 12-13 will crush 09-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Looking at the numbers, I think the most recent -nao regime has been given way to much credit. It pales in comparison to the 61-66 stretch and this year is record positive. I'm as guilty as the next guy thinking that we had entered into a long term -nao like the 60's. It's just not the case. 09-10 was just a heck of a combination of just about everything. 10-11 shut the cold valve off pretty abruptly in Feb and that was that. Because I have obvious problems with my need to look into the #'s, here is the average nao for the DJFM period for the 61-66 stretch and 08-11 for comparison: 61-62: -.698 62-63: -1.208 63-64: -1.375 64-65: -.833 65-66: -.300 08-09: +.085 09-10: -1.475 10-11: -.355 05-06 was a negative overall year but 06-07 & 07-08 were positive so you can see that the current "-NAO" regime is really pretty lame when you boil it down. This year is atrociously positive. Now that I looked closer at it, I don't even think we were in any type of long term -nao regime. 2 years is pretty weak imo. I would be interested to know what contributed to such a long -noa stretch in the 60's. It was pretty impressive. Interesting as always, Bob. Thanks. Do you have the NAO numbers for the years as a whole? Obviously, NAO in winter means more to folks on the board than does NAO in summer, but it'd be interesting to see where the numbers stack up for whole years (or even the entire -NAO period in the 60s v., say, the last seven years). And when I say "interesting," I mean just in terms of curiosity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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