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Let's discuss in this thread signs we saw/should have noticed

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

lolz http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/29162-this-is-interesting/page__st__105

I apologize for a lack of a thread title but I'm not really sure how to title this. This also may be more for OT, however, this does involve weather in a sense so I just posted it here. Plus I feel if this is in OT the thread could get out of hand. If mods/admins feel it should be an OT then just move it. Before I get into the story I know many people probably don't believe in this sort of stuff, however, I find it all highly interesting and truthfully who am I (or who is anyone else) to say this has no merit. With this said I'll get into the story.

Today I was at work and talking to this lady who I'm good friends with and her family as well. I know her two kids from Wolf Pack games and my brother and I have become friends with their family. This lady knows I love the weather and always asks me for forecasts if she can't watch the news. Anyways, today she was telling me this story about one of her great friends who she has known for 9 years. This person is a psychic (that might not be the correct word here but I think the term she used began with an "M") and has done all type of readings for her, her family and lots of other people as well and has had great success. Anyways she was telling me that she actually saw that a storm like this was coming and said it was a test for all of us as a preparation for something even bigger to come.

She said that she sees visions of a monster storm sometime between December and February that will produce snow for 3 consecutive days and produce monster snowfall totals, people would be trapped in their homes, there would be widespread power outages, people could run out of gas/oil. She said as we grew closer in time she will see the vision more clearly.

Now I'm not really someone to brush off ideas or laugh at anyone's ideas, especially when it comes to something like this. I know you see everyday people thinking they have these powers and make all sorts of claims and nothing happens. Like I said above, I know many don't believe in this sort of stuff, however, I find it interesting and there are some out there who do have this type of ability.

Anyways I just thought I'd share this b/c I found the story quite interesting. She did ask me as we get closer to look at whatever I look at when predicting the weather and see if something shows up.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
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Few things pop into my mind without reading the thread fully.

The persistent + departures since Summer. Just awesome from a meteorological perspective but I haven't looked into the factors that have given us this stretch.

Lack of a sustained -NAO/-AO couplet. We knew going into this winter that these were going to be a factor since we had a moderate La Nina. We have brief periods but nothing noteworthy.

Lack of tropical forcing (MJO) i only took note of this in the past 45 days or so but it appears as though we've had very week tropical forcing out of the IO and it's been unable to be sustained to get us into more favorable areas to get us storms.

This last system on Feb 11 shows the potential with a favorable pattern.

I am sure a lot of this is chicken an egg since a lot of this feeds upstream/downstream.

Let me preface what I just wrote by saying that I'm not a long-range guy, a meteorologist, or a forecaster, or anything else for that matter related to the field of meteorology other than an enthusiast and amateur. I just never felt good/confident about sustained cold/snowfall for us this year.

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rgwp96

rgwp96

Posted
Posted

If there were truly "signs" that an entire met. winter was going to be lousy (or great, for that matter), really smart meteorologists probably would have figured it out decades ago.

if their were signs all the so called long range experts would see it. its nothing but a gamble, we cant predict **** is what it comes down to regardless of all the pretty charts we have.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

lolz http://www.americanw...g/page__st__105

I apologize for a lack of a thread title but I'm not really sure how to title this. This also may be more for OT, however, this does involve weather in a sense so I just posted it here. Plus I feel if this is in OT the thread could get out of hand. If mods/admins feel it should be an OT then just move it. Before I get into the story I know many people probably don't believe in this sort of stuff, however, I find it all highly interesting and truthfully who am I (or who is anyone else) to say this has no merit. With this said I'll get into the story.

Today I was at work and talking to this lady who I'm good friends with and her family as well. I know her two kids from Wolf Pack games and my brother and I have become friends with their family. This lady knows I love the weather and always asks me for forecasts if she can't watch the news. Anyways, today she was telling me this story about one of her great friends who she has known for 9 years. This person is a psychic (that might not be the correct word here but I think the term she used began with an "M") and has done all type of readings for her, her family and lots of other people as well and has had great success. Anyways she was telling me that she actually saw that a storm like this was coming and said it was a test for all of us as a preparation for something even bigger to come.

She said that she sees visions of a monster storm sometime between December and February that will produce snow for 3 consecutive days and produce monster snowfall totals, people would be trapped in their homes, there would be widespread power outages, people could run out of gas/oil. She said as we grew closer in time she will see the vision more clearly.

Now I'm not really someone to brush off ideas or laugh at anyone's ideas, especially when it comes to something like this. I know you see everyday people thinking they have these powers and make all sorts of claims and nothing happens. Like I said above, I know many don't believe in this sort of stuff, however, I find it interesting and there are some out there who do have this type of ability.

Anyways I just thought I'd share this b/c I found the story quite interesting. She did ask me as we get closer to look at whatever I look at when predicting the weather and see if something shows up.

I remember this thread, She may need lassix surgery to correct her vision, Maybe she was reffering to the nuke around hr 360 on the 0z GFS......... :lol:

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DavisStraight

DavisStraight

Posted
Posted

lolz http://www.americanw...g/page__st__105

I apologize for a lack of a thread title but I'm not really sure how to title this. This also may be more for OT, however, this does involve weather in a sense so I just posted it here. Plus I feel if this is in OT the thread could get out of hand. If mods/admins feel it should be an OT then just move it. Before I get into the story I know many people probably don't believe in this sort of stuff, however, I find it all highly interesting and truthfully who am I (or who is anyone else) to say this has no merit. With this said I'll get into the story.

Today I was at work and talking to this lady who I'm good friends with and her family as well. I know her two kids from Wolf Pack games and my brother and I have become friends with their family. This lady knows I love the weather and always asks me for forecasts if she can't watch the news. Anyways, today she was telling me this story about one of her great friends who she has known for 9 years. This person is a psychic (that might not be the correct word here but I think the term she used began with an "M") and has done all type of readings for her, her family and lots of other people as well and has had great success. Anyways she was telling me that she actually saw that a storm like this was coming and said it was a test for all of us as a preparation for something even bigger to come.

She said that she sees visions of a monster storm sometime between December and February that will produce snow for 3 consecutive days and produce monster snowfall totals, people would be trapped in their homes, there would be widespread power outages, people could run out of gas/oil. She said as we grew closer in time she will see the vision more clearly.

Now I'm not really someone to brush off ideas or laugh at anyone's ideas, especially when it comes to something like this. I know you see everyday people thinking they have these powers and make all sorts of claims and nothing happens. Like I said above, I know many don't believe in this sort of stuff, however, I find it interesting and there are some out there who do have this type of ability.

Anyways I just thought I'd share this b/c I found the story quite interesting. She did ask me as we get closer to look at whatever I look at when predicting the weather and see if something shows up.

She was right, it happened in Romania

:whistle:

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Hmm that's interesting. I don't think we will ever be able to prove which idea is right/wrong simply because there is not enough to sample..but I will always , always be concerned about a significant Oct snowfall and the ensuing winter..I honestly believe there is some sort of negative correlation

I will never believe the correlation simply because there is no correlation. If I played your games in 2000 or 2002 or in 1960 if I was alive back then I'd look like a total fool.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

January was repectable with 24" falling here. December was bogus. The end of January and start of Feb were in fact very snowy and cold for me.

End of Jan and early Feb was horrific....nobody here gives a crap what fell in Alaska when grading SNE...I don't grade how March 2000 was based on my trip to the Sierras.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

What games are you talking about? Why are you so pissed off in here today?

The anecdotal claims about October snowfall...

How am I pissed off? lol. I was questioning your claim about October snowfall and you take every question about your statements as being PO'd?

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

There were warning signs, mostly after October (and after I put out my winter outlook unfortunately). I don't count the big Oct snow as a bad omen for the winter, I think we just want to look at that event to somehow blame it for our disaster winter. In fact, the pattern that produced it lasted about 5-7 days, a brief negative AO, and if anything, I would think it might be a positive indicator.

Main things that struck me meteorologically:

1) Positive AO and NAO from the end of summer through autumn, strengthening in November, which was the key. I did some more in-depth research in the past month, and strongly positive AO/NAO regimes (even just positive) in November are fairly strong correlators to a +NAO/AO DJF. Especially, if the pattern persists into early/mid December, the correlation becomes very strong. And that's not a huge surprise; patterns tends to lock in for weeks, often months on end, given certain preset conditions.

2) Unexpect surging in solar activity Oct/Nov with solar flux up around 180 for a time

3) Westerly QBO into early December, which when coupled with the spike in solar parameters, I believe helped to intensify the stratospheric vortex, thereby rendering the tropospheric AO very positive

4) This is in winter, but the fact that NYC finished w/ < 3" of snow for December is a very good correlator to a crappy winter. I'm sure similar stats could be found for other stations, but that fact is, I'd say there's a pretty high correlation w/ the Dec overall pattern and the rest of the winter. At least as far as this season's concerned, this winter displayed its true colors by early December and had no intention of leaving for awhile.

5) The other factos mentioned I agree w/ are green grass, late leaf drop, etc, are more related to the weather pattern ongoing.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

End of Jan and early Feb was horrific....nobody here gives a crap what fell in Alaska when grading SNE...I don't grade how March 2000 was based on my trip to the Sierras.

LOL. Everyone else grades their specific locations to climate and Pete grades his personal mood during winter. I envy his ability to make everything seem like a box of chocolates even if he only gets 24" of snow from November 1st through February 13th in a place that averages like 100 inches per winter.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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Posted

going back to the original post from kevin which was more anecdotal and mother nature type of stuff...only one thing caught my eye in the fall that i don't directly just connect to temps being mild. for example, there were flowers out really late in the season but that's simply because it was mild and i never really equated that to a mild/snowless winter ahead. i don't like to connect these kind of dots to weather "forecasting" but sometimes i believe mother nature is foretelling some things...anyway, for the sake of discussion:

i was getting a lot of comments from folks about the complete 100% absence of acorns from any of the oak trees around here (not sure what it was like in other regions of SNE). there might be a horticulturist out there who would have a very scientific explanation, but i didn't like seeing that. it made me feel like the trees knew they didn't have to produce going into the winter. acorns are feed for so many animals and obviously are part of the species reproduction. i have a friend who is an avid - obsessed is probably a better word...like obsessed the way we are with snow - deer hunter. the guy knows his stuff. he called me in the fall and was commenting on the fact that the deer would be absolutely screwed this winter if there was a prolonged period of cold and snow cover because there were no acorns to eat in the fall.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

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Posted

The warm and more importantly dry November did it for me. Dry Novembers are rarely good-like Kevin said-zero cutters for the month-not good....also, the ol pattern delayed but not denied--as soon as you see the models hedging it back and back and back--it's over...for me I knew by mid december that it was done. Here we are 2 months later with the same sensible weather-dry/warm with an occassional arctic day tossed in for good measure.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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going back to the original post from kevin which was more anecdotal and mother nature type of stuff...only one thing caught my eye in the fall that i don't directly just connect to temps being mild. for example, there were flowers out really late in the season but that's simply because it was mild and i never really equated that to a mild/snowless winter ahead. i don't like to connect these kind of dots to weather "forecasting" but sometimes i believe mother nature is foretelling some things...anyway, for the sake of discussion:

i was getting a lot of comments from folks about the complete 100% absence of acorns from any of the oak trees around here (not sure what it was like in other regions of SNE). there might be a horticulturist out there who would have a very scientific explanation, but i didn't like seeing that. it made me feel like the trees knew they didn't have to produce going into the winter. acorns are feed for so many animals and obviously are part of the species reproduction. i have a friend who is an avid - obsessed is probably a better word...like obsessed the way we are with snow - deer hunter. the guy knows his stuff. he called me in the fall and was commenting on the fact that the deer would be absolutely screwed this winter if there was a prolonged period of cold and snow cover because there were no acorns to eat in the fall.

The acorns are purely cyclical. It has nothing to do with the wx as far as whether they fall or not. Every 2-3 yrs they reproduce..Certain wx factors help determine if it is a mass crop or just a normal crop..like warm, dry springs, amount of rainfall previus year..but every 2-3 yrs you have a year where they generally will yield little to no acorns..different species can vary of course.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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The warm and more importantly dry November did it for me. Dry Novembers are rarely good-like Kevin said-zero cutters for the month-not good....also, the ol pattern delayed but not denied--as soon as you see the models hedging it back and back and back--it's over...for me I knew by mid december that it was done. Here we are 2 months later with the same sensible weather-dry/warm with an occassional arctic day tossed in for good measure.

The only thing that's really shocked me this winter is that this 1-2 week period flopped. That I didn't see coming, really believed worse case we had 1 solid week of winter sandwiched around a torch. I think the touchiness going around is attributable to even the pessimistic portion of the group having some excitement over what's turned out to be just another tease.

December seemed like a foregone conclusion by about Thanksgiving when Jerry and I made the bet. I'm surprised that it continued to be persistent like it's been but I think eventually we reach a tipping point and the total lack of snowcover, warmer ocean temps and everything else starts to feed back.

I'll be surprised as the wave lengths shortern if we don't see a few snow events even in the CP but it may be a struggle. This is without fail the worst winter I've ever experienced in terms of pure warmth, total lack of feeling like winter, scope/spread/duration, and lack of snow. There's no snow, there's very little ice, flowers are out and lawns are still partially green.

Going forward if the GFS goes 15 or so days without being able to deliver one fantasy snowstorm for weeks/months on end, it's a good sign you're fighting a losing battle.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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Posted

The acorns are purely cyclical. It has nothing to do with the wx as far as whether they fall or not. Every 2-3 yrs they reproduce..Certain wx factors help determine if it is a mass crop or just a normal crop..like warm, dry springs, amount of rainfall previus year..but every 2-3 yrs you have a year where they generally will yield little to no acorns..different species can vary of course.

yeah i know.

i know the amounts change from year to year. but this year was NONE. that's unusual.

again, i don't like to attach these things to weather going forward, but it gave me pause in the Fall.

most of the animal things i ignore. like geese just stay around now the same way Robins do etc.

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