Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 For me..there are a couple things I think back to and to myself I was very concerned A few of them I posted on here..but a few i didn't share 1) The October snowstorm greatly worried me..I never said anything..but solid October snowfalls of more than an inch or 2 have always worried me for the coming winter. I allowed Will to talk me out of that worry in his discussions with Jerry on it..but it was always in the back of my mind 2) Lawns still being deep green up to and even past the holidays. I don't know exactly what it is..but I think back to bad winters and I always recall lawns that are green or semi green...Some of it has to do with the mild weather..but there is more to it than that. Grass should turn brown by November and this year it did not do that. 3) Seeing flocks of Canadian geese flying north or NW every week since November. I have never seen that before in any winter..and when I kept seeing that deep down,..I knew. I've posted about it this winter too. In November and December I kept telling myself..meh..they'll go south once they sense the weather changing...they never left.. 4) Seeing various kinds of bugs/flies etc during every winter month...Now I know they will come out after warm periods..but there comes a point in time in December when they should be gone for good..and they're not. In fact, we had a couple wasps in my office one day last week 5) Not seeing any deer in the yard or neighborhood.this is the first winter since I've lived here that the deer have not come and destroyed my shrubs..some of that is predicated on snowfall..but still the weather pattern has changed their migratory habits this year..and has to be attributed to them knowing it was going to be a torch winter 6) Lack of deep lows cutting up into the Lakes giving us at least 1 or 2 screaming sou easters. We saw none of those this autumn or winter..Even in our great winters we see a couple typically...when those don't happen ..no matter what modelling/ensembles say..the pattern never seems to get cold. Anyway..those are just some of the things that worried me as we went along...and there's probably something to some of them,,and will be things i will store away for future winters..I talked myself out of most of these..but in the end..the signs were all there,,and they were pretty damn clear.. I just chose not to believe them At any rate I'm sure many of us have seen/saw things this year that worried us. Disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 When Steve went on a trolling rampage of the tropical dudes last summer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Persistent onshore flow in BC from mid-Nov on... Dec. '01 being thrown around in banter more than once. Tendency for lows in the southern US to cut-off and have the northern stream snap back instead of amplifying and dragging cold into the US. Probably attributable to the huge +AO and vortex strength which has been gone for a while now, but regardless, was a bad sign for any chance of -NAO onset IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 great post lots of signs posted a couple way back, edmonton and ottawa breaking their alltime record for the latest snowfall recorded ever....not exactly an easy feat and a bad sign for the rest of us. the geese is a good one, plenty of geese up here never left. i know Will has posted about october snows and the lack of correlation, but ive never seen a good winter in canada that had significant october snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 great post lots of signs posted a couple way back, edmonton and ottawa breaking their alltime record for the latest snowfall recorded ever....not exactly an easy feat and a bad sign for the rest of us. the geese is a good one, plenty of geese up here never left. i know Will has posted about october snows and the lack of correlation, but ive never seen a good winter in canada that had significant october snow. I can think of good winters where we've had minor Oct snows..and the sample size is fairly low...but it seems if you get over an inch or so..the correlation to bad winters goes up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 High SSTs? The geese thing does not worry me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 High SSTs? The geese thing does not worry me Why though? Why would geese be around if they sensed winter was going to be rough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Why though? Why would geese be around if they sensed winter was going to be rough? I have seen geese during many winters...good and bad.They don't seem to care as much anymore. And there is probably no correlation, but 1979 saw a big SNE tornado and a big Oct snow...crappy winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 Well I was hoping to get others to post things they noticed in nature or in the pattern that worried them..Hoping to get some mets contributing as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 We seemed to have tons of sunny days...lol Seriously though. I wonder if the percent of mostly to fully sunny days this winter was higher. Few systems, even small ones. Most boring winter I can remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Will is pounding out an October Snow Phail diatribe that Tippy would be proud of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 they are only apparent in hindsight and are not necessarily valid except for your own belief system and peace of mind the first thing that was annoying was this fall was a torch on nite time lows and all our cold was being drawn in from the SOUTHWEST lol. train wreck of a winter save a week in january so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 they are only apparent in hindsight and are not necessarily valid except for your own belief system and peace of mind the first thing that was annoying was this fall was a torch on nite time lows and all our cold was being drawn in from the SOUTHWEST lol. train wreck of a winter save a week in january so far No they are not only apparent in hindsight.because these are things i thought of during the course of this fing disaster winter..some I posted about..others i kept to myself.. I can't possibly be the only one that saw things that worried them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I can think of good winters where we've had minor Oct snows..and the sample size is fairly low...but it seems if you get over an inch or so..the correlation to bad winters goes up Using what? >1" for ORH 1925-1926, 1934-1935,1960-1961, 1962-1963, 1964-1965, 1979-1980, 2002-2003, 2003-2004, 2009-2010, 2011-2012 BOS has had an inch or more twice....2005 and 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 When Steve went on a trolling rampage of the tropical dudes last summer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Using what? >1" for ORH 1925-1926, 1934-1935,1960-1961, 1962-1963, 1964-1965, 1979-1980, 2002-2003, 2003-2004, 2009-2010, 2011-2012 BOS has had an inch or more twice....2005 and 2011 Using >7" for ORH...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 No they are not only apparent in hindsight.because these are things i thought of during the course of this fing disaster winter..some I posted about..others i kept to myself.. I can't possibly be the only one that saw things that worried them megaMarch incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 Using what? >1" for ORH 1925-1926, 1934-1935,1960-1961, 1962-1963, 1964-1965, 1979-1980, 2002-2003, 2003-2004, 2009-2010, 2011-2012 BOS has had an inch or more twice....2005 and 2011 I'm not sure we can actually pick a station..the problem is..how many Oct has there been greater than say 2 inches of snow from any one event at BOS or BDL or PVD? Not many..so the sample size is low, but there is def something to the idea..Im just not sure how to properly correlate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 And your deer were all poisoned by LESCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 I'm not sure we can actually pick a station..the problem is..how many Oct has there been greater than say 2 inches of snow from any one event at BOS or BDL or PVD? Not many..so the sample size is low, but there is def something to the idea..Im just not sure how to properly correlate it There has never been a snow event that dropped 2 inches to all 4 stations in October...this year was the closest thing to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 1) watching the Alaskan vortex hold tight. That's a tough feature to disrupt 2) long range model forecasts lacked fantasy blizzards in November and December which honestly had me worried. These fantasy storms indicate the ability for the atmosphere to produce, which was not the case this winter. Otherwise, I felt pretty good up through the end of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Well I was hoping to get others to post things they noticed in nature or in the pattern that worried them..Hoping to get some mets contributing as well My old salt New Englander neighbor said it would be an easy Winter back in June '11. He has never been wrong with his broad brush Winter predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 There has never been a snow event that dropped 2 inches to all 4 stations in October...this year was the closest thing to that. Hmm that's interesting. I don't think we will ever be able to prove which idea is right/wrong simply because there is not enough to sample..but I will always , always be concerned about a significant Oct snowfall and the ensuing winter..I honestly believe there is some sort of negative correlation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 My old salt New Englander neighbor said it would be an easy Winter back in June '11. He has never been wrong with his broad brush Winter predictions. Did that worry or concern you at all? if so,,you certainly didn't let on. What was his reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 My old salt New Englander neighbor said it would be an easy Winter back in June '11. He has never been wrong with his broad brush Winter predictions. Did he mention why he felt that? Moss color or pony tail length or anything? jk Some of the older folk get feelings that are pretty accurate. Of course some are just lucky, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Blizz is also assuming that we don't get bombed evebn once over the next 8-10 weeks. I'll take that bet all day long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Starting in October cold fronts came thru but it didn't get colder..there was no blocking at all in the fall and then thru the winter in Greenland. some.trees didn't change color here till early November..there was a big Ak vortex that was pumping mild pacific air starting in early November..every Euro weekly starting in early November was a blowtorch..there wasn't any fantasy snowstorms on GFS thru early January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Blizz is also assuming that we don't get bombed evebn once over the next 8-10 weeks. I'll take that bet all day long. Well, even if we get a 12"er at ORH and a couple of 4-6"ers, it will be a way below avg winter. And I would not count on any of those happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Starting in October cold fronts came thru but it didn't get colder..there was no blocking at all in the fall and then thru the winter in Greenland. some.trees didn't change color here till early November..there was a big Ak vortex that was pumping mild pacific air starting in early November..every Euro weekly starting in early November was a blowtorch Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2012 Author Share Posted February 11, 2012 Blizz is also assuming that we don't get bombed evebn once over the next 8-10 weeks. I'll take that bet all day long. Even if we do get a bomb..say with the end of the week progged storm..that still doesn't make up for this winter. It would only go from an F- to an F+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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