CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Close enough.....6 days out on GFS...I'm fine with it. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The southern stream stays perfectly in between the two northern stream shortwaves...thus not phasing and we see an out to sea solution. But that would be quite the feat to pull off, its like trying to balance yourself walking a tight rope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Close enough.....6 days out on GFS...I'm fine with it. True. We have seen this happen far too many time before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Classic 2010 run....alL you need to know. Congrats, W Palm Beach. Dude, it's 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Agreed. DT is intimating this maybe our last shot for awhile....if this one fails, we may going be in Dec 2006 territory snowfallwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Not the worst run, despite the miss. The phase timings are among the least predictable aspects at this range. Storm isn't totally crushed or anything, and doesn't cut way inland. It doesn't seem like a cold bias is causing this particular storm to be OTS, but more often than not the GFS corrects NW not SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Dude, it's 6 days out. I understand that.....I described the run; what is wrong with that I haven't a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I've seen 11" like 3 times and 10" twice since then, but not 12". Keep your locker room escapades out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Classic 2010 run....alL you need to know. Congrats, W Palm Beach. Six.days.out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The southern stream stays perfectly in between the two northern stream shortwaves...thus not phasing and we see an out to sea solution. But that would be quite the feat to pull off, its like trying to balance yourself walking a tight rope. Yeah I know...lol. I'll take this run....better than 12z for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 We're only a nrn stream s/w timing issue away from a biggie. Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 DT is intimating this maybe our last shot for awhile....if this one fails, we may going be in Dec 2006 territory snowfallwise. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I understand that.....I described the run; what is wrong with that I haven't a clue. You threw in the 2010 comment, making it sound like we should expect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 This far out, I would rather be sitting in this posistion then in the bullseye............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 DT is intimating this maybe our last shot for awhile....if this one fails, we may going be in Dec 2006 territory snowfallwise. We have another shot right after Christmas I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Six.days.out. I don't care whether it's 6 days of 6 minutes...the run is what it is. I made no inferences as to whether I thought it was right or wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I understand that.....I described the run; what is wrong with that I haven't a clue. You've made some implied negative tone posts in this thread....first mentioning how paltry the Euro was taken at face value (hours after it had been discussed) and then calling this 2010. I suppose there's nothing wrong with those posts in and by themselves, but your tone has been negative as if you are about to put the nail in the coffin for this event at 132 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 You threw in the 2010 comment, making it sound like we should expect it. Well, that is how it was perceived, but 2010 was an accurate way to characterize that partucular run; all I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 We have another shot right after Christmas I think. January will rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Why? Greenland/Baffin Bay block retrogrades towards Alaska...cutting off the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Ok guys....trying to get a few more hours sleep tonight. Later. Will catch Euro upon awakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 still way to far away.. we have plenty time, things will change at least 3-4 more times if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 If anything the block weakens and Canada gets cold, question is...how far south does it get. Some of the ensembles get the cold into the nrn tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Greenland/Baffin Bay block retrogrades towards Alaska...cutting off the cold. Could happen but imho not for long. The NAO will not be denied and she'll be back. Furthermore, if this storm happens, it adds some life to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 You've made some implied negative tone posts in this thread....first mentioning how paltry the Euro was taken at face value (hours after it had been discussed) and then calling this 2010. I suppose there's nothing wrong with those posts in and by themselves, but your tone has been negative as if you are about to put the nail in the coffin for this event at 132 hours. That is a misperception; I never said that......I'm not sure how labeling a given determinstic soloution as paltry qualifies as dismissing the threat. You know yourself that I'm very demonstrative and I will state in no uncertain terms when I believe a threat to be dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'll gladly take how things look right now...just appears to be some timing/phasing issues as our main issues here and giving this is over 120 HR's out still lots of time for things to be worked out. Given how fast the flow is models could go a bit crazy with trying to time these pieces of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 still way to far away.. we have plenty time, things will change at least 3-4 more times if not more. I'd get nervous if the EURO is still meager at 12z tmw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'll gladly take how things look right now...just appears to be some timing/phasing issues as our main issues here and giving this is over 120 HR's out still lots of time for things to be worked out. Given how fast the flow is models could go a bit crazy with trying to time these pieces of energy. I'll taker a near miss at d6 any day of the week. I'm all set with the gfs and euro showing over 1', 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looks like around the 20th or so we might get some clipper type systems...flow aloft is pretty damn fast and looks really active...also looks pretty darn cold as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'll taker a near miss at d6 any day of the week. I'm all set with the gfs and euro showing over 1', 6 days out. It's never really a good thing when you're in the bullseye that far out...as much as this sentence probably gets overused...same thing in the summer for convection...I HATE when the models 4+ days out show PERFECT timing of the cold front b/c you know that timing is not going to work out and the front will come through earlier or later and that's not a good thing. I know Ray said if the 12z Euro is still meh tomorrow it may be time for concern, DT said that as well (for our sake) but I'll really give this until 12z runs on Thursday...when you're dealing with timing issues you almost have to wait until you're in the short-term to finally jump the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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