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D6 event....blizzard, flizzard, rain, or partly cloudy?

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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The in house stuff can be broken down to .10" increments I believe.

I like how WSI prints it out on the model grid like it is and doesn't try to smooth it too much, sometimes too much smoothing can create problems...and that you can actually tell the difference between 0.10" and 0.25".

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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per the 0z model suite thread, the 84hr NAM extrapolated to 144 looks good for the d6 event :lol:

I think it looks terrible with that upper midwest s/w outrunning the southern stream....but interpolating the NAM beyond 84h speaks for itself regarding accuracy.

There is that 2nd piece of energy rotating in from Canada, but that really doesn't look all that impressive....but who knows maybe the pv splits after that midwest s/w goes further east and we see a phase anyway...but its all probably an exercise in futility. :lol:

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skierinvermont

skierinvermont

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I think it looks terrible with that upper midwest s/w outrunning the southern stream....but interpolating the NAM beyond 84h speaks for itself regarding accuracy.

There is that 2nd piece of energy rotating in from Canada, but that really doesn't look all that impressive....but who knows maybe the pv splits after that midwest s/w goes further east and we see a phase anyway...but its all probably an exercise in futility. :lol:

I have a hard time seeing it on the psu ewall maps, but am I correct in thinking that the 00z Euro missed the phase on the 00z because the southern stream s/w is too slow for the midwest s/w? And then the 12z speeds up the southern stream s/w and we get some sort of phase?

Really hard to tell on those maps what is going on. It doesn't even look like the GFS and Euro are phasing the southern stream with the same midwest s/w.. there's a 18 hr difference in timing of the storm along the East coast.

Here's the map I'm thinking of from the 00z Euro.. the southern stream s/w is too slow to phase with the s/w over Wisconsin. But on the 12z run the southern stream s/w is 12 hours faster and phases.

f120.gif

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I have a hard time seeing it on the psu ewall maps, but am I correct in thinking that the 00z Euro missed the phase on the 00z because the southern stream s/w is too slow for the midwest s/w? And then the 12z speeds up the southern stream s/w and we get some sort of phase?

Really hard to tell on those maps what is going on. It doesn't even look like the GFS and Euro are phasing the southern stream with the same midwest s/w.. there's a 18 hr difference in timing of the storm along the East coast.

Here's the map I'm thinking of from the 00z Euro.. the southern stream s/w is too slow to phase with the s/w over Wisconsin. But on the 12z run the southern stream s/w is 12 hours faster and phases.

Yes, on the two Euro solutions, its the southern stream and N stream out of phase there...you can see how ugly it looked on that 00z map with the northern stream way out ahead.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Really? I see some big differences by 6z Saturday.

There's now two shortwaves over the northern tier vs just 1 at 18z...we have a potent one in Michigan and another just N of ND whereas 18z just had one in MN. Bizarre....it still might produce a decent storm though, we'll see.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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There's now two shortwaves over the northern tier vs just 1 at 18z...we have a potent one in Michigan and another just N of ND whereas 18z just had one in MN. Bizarre....it still might produce a decent storm though, we'll see.

I think the southern s/w looks great but we're getting no help from the now 2 northern stream s/ws

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