snowNH Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 But you saw 9" last night. Besides my own. Not that I know of... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 They were old hat after a while. lol Good times, good times. Seemingly every event was a 6-12'' event in '07/'08 and '08/'09 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Back on track... What do you guys think the GFS shows tonight? Do we see the classic 18z snow bomb then 00z snow dud again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 No kidding. That's like 2.5-3" over SE MA/CC. I am slowing beginning to think the out to sea route is fading. 00z suite tonight, imo, will decide if that is still on the table. Isn't it early to eliminate possibilities this far out? 28.6/25 sn- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Nice to see the 18z come back substantially with this thing... Seems so far in this when a given model drops, it only does so for one run. ...Not sure if any significance to that observation but it is what it is. The 00z Euro will be interesting. Really not much to add as Will stated. Kind of a waiting game - that's sometimes the problem when the runs pick something this far in advance. And also ... therein lies the risk of vesting too much time in anticipation. Integrating a whole week's worth of expectation only to have ti miss would be ...well, not good considering where we've come. Hopefully this won't do that. Hopefully this wont' fall on deaf ears, but it might be time remember that you give into it on your own. You know, this could bomb 20ft too far off shore to bring a flurry to BOS and guess what, at this time range the current 00z/06z/12z would be fantastic solutions relative to skill at this type of time lead, having never realized a flake in the area Just something to (hopefully) keep things in perspective as we get through the week and churn out these model runs. John--waiting for your correction vector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Isn't it early to eliminate possibilities this far out? 28.6/25 sn- Ryan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Please fellas...no westward jog. Everyone gets snow and 50 miles west I may have problems and Phil is fooked. Lets stay together on this one.. its true Jerry, i actually i get 6+ inches from this run also if it could be frozen like this, i dont think many would complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Ryan? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Back on track... What do you guys think the GFS shows tonight? Do we see the classic 18z snow bomb then 00z snow dud again? Just kidding around... I wouldn't be shocked if the gfs goes a little east, but I don't think it will vary much. It probably could easily move a little west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Really? I mean I guess that given it's D6+ there's a good chance of losing it completely because the timing is wrong, but in terms of the overall pattern I think it could easily favor something cutting over SNE... there's not much of a 50/50 low. If it phases well than it probably will cut over SNE as it wraps around or phases with the PV over the great lakes. I'm sort of like 30/30/40 on west track vs coastal track vs OTS/no storm. I don't know, maybe that's a little aggressive for D6 but I think there's a pretty good signal at this point The problem with saying it would have a better chance of going too far W vs OTS is fairly simple...you HAVE to get a phase for it to go too far west, yet, even if we get a phase, it doesn't guarantee a too far W solution (see 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS)....only the most extreme phase solutions would cut it up the CT River or Hudson River...so yeah, I would put that chance of happening much less than a solution too far east like a scraper or even a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 3 years actually....12/19/08 was a heavy snow event too. Cwap.. going to the Pats game Sunday night. Slow it down or speed it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Cwap.. going to the Pats game Sunday night. Slow it down or speed it up. Oh come on, you'd love to go to a classic snow game. "What's the score?" "I don't know, but we're ripping beautiful dendrites right now." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Oh come on, you'd love to go to a classic snow game. "What's the score?" "I don't know, but we're ripping beautiful dendrites right now." LOL - getting there/home again is the problem... Anyway, good to see some agreement on the models even though it is 6 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Oh come on, you'd love to go to a classic snow game. "What's the score?" "I don't know, but we're ripping beautiful dendrites right now." No shyt ... that'd be 16 different kinds of awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Do you guys remember the days in early and mid 2000s when 6-12 inch storms were considered like a 2-4" type deal around here? I would do anything for a 6-12" storm now. I don't think I've seen over 12" in 2 years. My last 12"+ storm was March 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 LOL - getting there/home again is the problem... Anyway, good to see some agreement on the models even though it is 6 days out Take the hot rod minivan and camp out in it. What an experience! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 LOL - getting there/home again is the problem... Anyway, good to see some agreement on the models even though it is 6 days out Yeah, I'm going to NY State on Saturday, so I'm hoping it stays right where it is time-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Take the hot rod minivan and camp out in it. What an experience! Might be a good idea. My brother lives in Foxboro so there is always that option. I still plan on skiing with some folks on Monday morning (Ginx, Cpick...you guys up for it?) at WaWa Don't mean to keep going OT Server seems fine here? Good to have a legit threat for Ray to track... long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The problem with saying it would have a better chance of going too far W vs OTS is fairly simple...you HAVE to get a phase for it to go too far west, yet, even if we get a phase, it doesn't guarantee a too far W solution (see 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS)....only the most extreme phase solutions would cut it up the CT River or Hudson River...so yeah, I would put that chance of happening much less than a solution too far east like a scraper or even a whiff. OK yeah -- that is a problem with most d6+ storms, it simply might not phase. I guess I would just like my chances better on the shore if we had a better 50/50 low.. something that would keep this offshore even if it does phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 How's the new job?I know you , Jaybirrd and Dryslut are working at NCEP know. Holy perfect for you. Ginx, You blew my cover......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Please fellas...no westward jog. Everyone gets snow and 50 miles west I may have problems and Phil is fooked. Lets stay together on this one.. I'm sorry but my ideal storm gives Tolland a couple hours of sleet while we rip in the deformation zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 LOL - getting there/home again is the problem... Anyway, good to see some agreement on the models even though it is 6 days out Hey Dave, there's this groovy new thing called "snow tires". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 My last 12"+ storm was March 2007 Feb. 2006 for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Feb. 2006 for me Ugh I have been spoiled .. 3 18"+ storms last year for me.. 2 in Middlebury and the snow followed me home for 12/19 last year too. I can't even imagine not getting at least one 12"/year now any more. I guess I had better start getting used to it again. Maybe my luck will follow for one more year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Hey Dave, there's this groovy new thing called "snow tires". But you still have to worry about all the idiots out there who don't have these so called snow tires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 But you still have to worry about all the idiots out there who don't have these so called snow tires can't drive worth a lick even on a sunny day in June much less 11" of paste in December. Holla!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 But you still have to worry about all the idiots out there who don't have these so called snow tires. Just drive a bigger vehicle than they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Wes seems to be warming up to the prospects of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I hate that the radio show is at 11... They should of hate it at like 9pm in order to kill some more time before the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Will, do you have the MJO analysis you had done for SNE Snowstorms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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