ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 December 19th, pending this storm coming to fruition, has been good date for us the last 2 years. 3 years actually....12/19/08 was a heavy snow event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 id take it lock it in someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 3 years actually....12/19/08 was a heavy snow event too. good call. And I know it's just a coincidence, but that is some crazy odds if it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Yeah it just hangs back the inverted trough for a couple days dumping more snow. All the ensemble means sort of looked like that too which is nice. No kidding. That's like 2.5-3" over SE MA/CC. I am slowing beginning to think the out to sea route is fading. 00z suite tonight, imo, will decide if that is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Is anyone else not seeing who is in the thread at the bottom of the page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 18z GFS ensemble mean looks about 200 SE of the benchmark...as mentioned after its similar position on the 12z run...probably not a bad spot at all at 144 hours.It actually trended a little SE I think from the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Would this solution constitute a hybrid Miller A/B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Is anyone else not seeing who is in the thread at the bottom of the page? It's a measure taken to reduce strain on the server during busy times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 18z GFS ensemble mean looks about 200 SE of the benchmark...as mentioned after its similar position on the 12z run...probably not a bad spot at all at 144 hours.It actually trended a little SE I think from the 12z run. Check out the change in H5 heights, this runs means are def. more amplified, not that it means much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Is anyone else not seeing who is in the thread at the bottom of the page? It's been turned off temporarily to relieve server load. We'll be upgrading soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 It's a measure taken to reduce strain on the server during busy times. It's been turned off temporarily to relieve server load. We'll be upgrading soon. ok thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Check out the change in H5 heights, this runs means are def. more amplified, not that it means much. I didn't check those very carefully, but the sfc low track is def a bit SE of 12z mean...maybe 50 miles or so. Not that it really means much at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Nice to see the 18z come back substantially with this thing... Seems so far in this when a given model drops, it only does so for one run. ...Not sure if any significance to that observation but it is what it is. The 00z Euro will be interesting. Really not much to add as Will stated. Kind of a waiting game - that's sometimes the problem when the runs pick something this far in advance. And also ... therein lies the risk of vesting too much time in anticipation. Integrating a whole week's worth of expectation only to have ti miss would be ...well, not good considering where we've come. Hopefully this won't do that. Hopefully this wont' fall on deaf ears, but it might be time remember that you give into it on your own. You know, this could bomb 20ft too far off shore to bring a flurry to BOS and guess what, at this time range the current 00z/06z/12z would be fantastic solutions relative to skill at this type of time lead, having never realized a flake in the area Just something to (hopefully) keep things in perspective as we get through the week and churn out these model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 good call. And I know it's just a coincidence, but that is some crazy odds if it happens 12\19 is the new 12\05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Please fellas...no westward jog. Everyone gets snow and 50 miles west I may have problems and Phil is fooked. Lets stay together on this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Please fellas...no westward jog. Everyone gets snow and 50 miles west I may have problems and Phil is fooked. Lets stay together on this one.. but we want MORE where it'll stay all snow no matter what! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Please fellas...no westward jog. Everyone gets snow and 50 miles west I may have problems and Phil is fooked. Lets stay together on this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Please fellas...no westward jog. Everyone gets snow and 50 miles west I may have problems and Phil is fooked. Lets stay together on this one.. Agreed..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Doesn't seem to have been a sharp western cut-off on any of the runs.....that sometimes changes at the last minute.....we see things smoothed out at these extended leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Please fellas...no westward jog. Everyone gets snow and 50 miles west I may have problems and Phil is fooked. Lets stay together on this one.. Well its not gonna stay at its current path and if it goes 100 miles east all of us are fooked. So, "Go west young man" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I'm not sure I agree. I think there is a higher threat of this going OTS than cutting way west. Really? I mean I guess that given it's D6+ there's a good chance of losing it completely because the timing is wrong, but in terms of the overall pattern I think it could easily favor something cutting over SNE... there's not much of a 50/50 low. If it phases well than it probably will cut over SNE as it wraps around or phases with the PV over the great lakes. I'm sort of like 30/30/40 on west track vs coastal track vs OTS/no storm. I don't know, maybe that's a little aggressive for D6 but I think there's a pretty good signal at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Watching the nightly news tonight remind me of 76. Brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Watching the nightly news tonight remind me of 76. Brutal Yeah winter everywhere but here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 12\19 is the new 12\05 How's the new job?I know you , Jaybirrd and Dryslut are working at NCEP know. Holy perfect for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 How's the new job.. I know you , Jaybirrd and Dryslut are working at NCEP know. Holy perfect for you. If I could wave my magic wand ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Do you guys remember the days in early and mid 2000s when 6-12 inch storms were considered like a 2-4" type deal around here? I would do anything for a 6-12" storm now. I don't think I've seen over 12" in 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Do you guys remember the days in early and mid 2000s when 6-12 inch storms were considered like a 2-4" type deal around here? I would do anything for a 6-12" storm now. I don't think I've seen over 12" in 2 years. But you saw 9" last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Do you guys remember the days in early and mid 2000s when 6-12 inch storms were considered like a 2-4" type deal around here? I would do anything for a 6-12" storm now. I don't think I've seen over 12" in 2 years. You weren't getting 6-12" events one after another in 07/08 and 08/09? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 You weren't getting 6-12" events one after another in 07/08 and 08/09? lol They were old hat after a while. lol Good times, good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 But you saw 9" last night. He needs the 5 posts/day group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.