dryslot Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 FWIW, at 00Z Saturday, the 12z NAM looks much better at 500h compared to the 6z GFS. The southern stream is more amplified and about to phase with the great lakes energy diving down towards IA. You can see it trying to dig on the last couple of panels...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The stronger southern stream seems consistent enough in model land to believe it's legit. Now we just have to hope the northern stream falls into place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 You can see it trying to dig on the last couple of panels...... Yeah and you can see our own PV rotate up and further away as the axis shifts. But then again, it's the 84 NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 You know who I expect modeling to consolidate on a healthy storm that will bring snow from the Tennessee Valley to the coastal mid- and north Atlantic states this weekend. A front runner is coming out and that is complicating matters, but the upper pattern over the weekend is favorable for snow fairly far back and the surface pattern, should correct toward it. Correction vector! Championship! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looping the 0-39 hour H5 on 12Z/14 GFS suggests she may deliver this run. Still too early to do anything but guess but in 10-15 minutes we may know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 NCEP has been awful the past couple days with server errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looping the 0-39 hour H5 on 12Z/14 GFS suggests she may deliver this run. Still too early to do anything but guess but in 10-15 minutes we may know. Yep, already liking the changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looping the 0-39 hour H5 on 12Z/14 GFS suggests she may deliver this run. Still too early to do anything but guess but in 10-15 minutes we may know. I think we may see this west slightly this run......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 We may not time the phase though....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 We may not time the phase though....... Overrunning storm looks farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Overrunning storm looks farther north. Up almost to NYC but light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 12z gfs throws me a little more qpf back here on weds then the nam, .25", Would be a couple inches of snow........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Nice to see some higher heights along the east coast, but I don't like how powerful the vortex is remaining. We need it get stretched out and deformed more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Front running wave is going to screw us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looks like its trying to form some type of norlun feature at 72 here..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looks like its trying to form some type of norlun feature at 72 here..... Norlun's can stick it up my ass.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Front running wave is going to screw us. Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Norlun's can stick it up my ass.... Crap shoot to where they end up...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 GFS nonsense again i see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Hmm... we have a stronger vortex to our northeast BUT we've got a better looking wave moving through the southern Plains IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Hmm... we have a stronger vortex to our northeast BUT we've got a better looking wave moving through the southern Plains IMO I wonder if that vortmax coming through Colorado will help amplify that trough down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 This looks like it will end up more robust than the 06z solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I wonder if that vortmax coming through Colorado will help amplify that trough down the road. I think it may...next few frames should tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I wonder if that vortmax coming through Colorado will help amplify that trough down the road. It seems it may, Its looks like its trying to amplyfy some here may be a tad late this run though..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I wonder if that vortmax coming through Colorado will help amplify that trough down the road. Yeah, that's what the 18z run was phasing with by 00z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 GFS is showing minimal energy in the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looks like we have split PVs allowing the western one to potentially treat us very nicely...we'll know soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 GOM will become involved with this system which will add to moisture available to the snow potential amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2010 Author Share Posted December 14, 2010 She's going to deliver friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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