ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Euro has a late blooming scraper for eastern areas. Maybe an inch or two. GFS had a little more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Quick look at the 06z GFS shows a minor event...an inch or two...but the trough is pretty impressive so we'll have to watch it closely...a little bit better timing of the vortmaxes could produce a much nicer event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Quick look at the 06z GFS shows a minor event...an inch or two...but the trough is pretty impressive so we'll have to watch it closely...a little bit better timing of the vortmaxes could produce a much nicer event. Would be nice for a couple of inches. It's not far from something more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I still like where this is heading for upslope snows late in the weekend... doesn't really matter where it gets its act together, as long as its deepening and becoming stacked over the Maritimes. With short waves pinwheeling around, one of these is bound to end up as a nice little bomb up there in Maritime provinces or over northern ME. Nice trough axis in the area with NW wind flow and wrap-around cyclonic moisture. May not be a big event but I was feeling confident yesterday and even more so today in the synoptic set up for a "Snow likely" event in the upslope areas late in the weekend. Even 2-6" would be nice to freshen things up but I see our new forecast has Snow Likely on Thursday night and BTV is on-board for a couple to several inches of WAA snows with that first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Last night's ECMWF looks interesting later this week... anyone with better graphics that aren't 24 hours at a time, what happens prior to this frame? This looks remotely interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Last night's ECMWF looks interesting later this week... anyone with better graphics that aren't 24 hours at a time, what happens prior to this frame? This looks remotely interesting. Its not that interesting..it scrapes E New England with some light snow. It does have measurable over all of NE...but the places that get a tenth or more are confined to eastern areas. There would probably be some orographic stuff there though. Its not that far from being something bigger as can be deduced from the 5h pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Wait you posted the 96h map...different storm than this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Last night's ECMWF looks interesting later this week... anyone with better graphics that aren't 24 hours at a time, what happens prior to this frame? This looks remotely interesting. It's a decent SWFE. There may be an iffy layer above H85, but the Euro has 0.50"+ here with mostly snow. It keeps trying to develop a secondary sfc low near LI which would lock the cold in. I thought this thread was for this event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 It's a decent SWFE. There may be an iffy layer above H85, but the Euro has 0.50"+ here with mostly snow. It keeps trying to develop a secondary sfc low near LI which would lock the cold in. I thought this thread was for this event too. We don't have a specific thread for the 1/26-27 event...this one was for the weekend threat. We've mostly been using tip's thread for the 1/26-27 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 0z and 6z GEFS really hitting this pretty hard......especially impressive on the SLP spaghetti charts....no clue what to make of it since it's now only 100+ hours out per GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I'd take the 06z GEFS for sure. Right now, it seems to be by itself, but like we said..it isn't far off from something more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Snow is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Snow is coming For vim toot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 For vim toot! By Sunday morning..all of SNE is snowcovered again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 By Sunday morning..all of SNE is snowcovered again Well that looks quite possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 This is getting confusing....I thought Thursday night was going to be minor and the chance of something more substantial was over the weekend. Is that still true? My zone speaks of light accum thurs night and snow or rain fri with more light accum possible. Sounds like a 2-4 with a changeover maybe. Forecast for the weekend is just cloudy, but plenty cold enough. Oh and also, GYX says near or just below normal in the extended....nice. Hardly lost any snow cover...31.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 We don't have a specific thread for the 1/26-27 event...this one was for the weekend threat. We've mostly been using tip's thread for the 1/26-27 event. Ahhh gotcha... Yeah I wasn't sure if this was for both of those storms. Will go discuss in Tip's thread. Thanks Dendrite for the info... I thought that looked moderately promising just from the snapshot on PSU Ewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Ok new thread for the 26/27 SWFE which gives CNE NNE 5-9 , it's you guys' snow, someone get it going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Ahhh gotcha... Yeah I wasn't sure if this was for both of those storms. Will go discuss in Tip's thread. Thanks Dendrite for the info... I thought that looked moderately promising just from the snapshot on PSU Ewall. Dude wunderground Euro is the bomb, hit it hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The NAM keeps me < 0C 850 (barely) during the Thursday night/Friday event now. Not sure if that means snow, sleet etc., but a bit more interesting. Probably a similar result over into Dendrites area on that kind of trajectory. Dude wunderground Euro is the bomb, hit it hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 GFS similar in terms of Thur/Fri.... The NAM keeps me < 0C 850 (barely) during the Thursday night/Friday event now. Not sure if that means snow, sleet etc., but a bit more interesting. Probably a similar result over into Dendrites area on that kind of trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 12z GFS close to a bomb for weekend. Still progressive and only clips eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 12z GFS close to a bomb for weekend. Still progressive and only clips eastern areas. No use in looking at that model now..but at least it is where we want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 12z GFS close to a bomb for weekend. Still progressive and only clips eastern areas. "weekend" as in post Thursday event, as in on course with this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 No use in looking at that model now..but at least it is where we want it If that showed 12+ you'd be all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 So we are right back to where we were a day ago with the GFS after it's flirtation last night with phasing it all for a cutter... Now just like yesterday, my instinct would be that the Euro will be less suppressed and more up the coast with Saturday. But that assumption didn't work out with yesterday's Euro. No use in looking at that model now..but at least it is where we want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 This is a thread the needle storm imo. It all boils down to the trough. It would be a quick hitter. We have the NAO trending down and the AO is in the gutter right now. PNA is also spiking positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 This is a thread the needle storm imo. It all boils down to the trough. It would be a quick hitter. We have the NAO trending down and the AO is in the gutter right now. PNA is also spiking positive. I like it a lot today. Rick Logan said it best, money in the bank storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 1/25/00 picked up a southern stream low and hurled it right up the coast. I'm not saying it would be identical, but models all had that moving NE harmlessly out and the interaction with the northern stream shot it right up the coast. This is a thread the needle storm imo. It all boils down to the trough. It would be a quick hitter. We have the NAO trending down and the AO is in the gutter right now. PNA is also spiking positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 1/25/00 picked up a southern stream low and hurled it right up the coast. I'm not saying it would be identical, but models all had that moving NE harmlessly out and the interaction with the northern stream shot it right up the coast. True but the models were also focusing on the first set of s/w's which was an error due to either bad data or lack of coverage in western canada. The NGM was the first model to show the second set of s/w's developing something off the carolinas. It then lost it, but the other models finally followed inside of 24 hours. I'm a big believer in the storm rut type theory...that for whatever reason (I'm sure it's the underlying macro pattern that we don't understand yet) storms follow similar tracks. Wouldn't be surprised if we start to see that play out even this weekend with a similar BM track that mainly hits the people further SE. There's also some climo links Don S posted awhile back with this type of pattern producing the random big snow in SE New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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