Logan11 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 That winter was overrated also. I enjoyed the 46" in five days. but almost every other event that year (09-10) went out to sea on us. A six inch snowfall would be nice this year...who's asking for 4 feet.... But my situation (18" since 11/1) pales compared to the CD where KALB is at 11.8 inches for the entire season so far. There really is no way to sugar coat how much of a fail this winter is so far, but I agree the final grade isn't until April. Ya can't get 50+ inches in 5 days every year... I'm just surprised you haven't had a bit more consistency out there at 1k feet. This has been especially poor in the highlands west of ALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 There not...because that would mean snow chances and it is abundantly clear that can't be the case ...ever again, for ever and ever. I don't know...I'm somewhat optimistic for some chances heading into Feb. For a while we have some model agreement and the fact that models are trying to build some convection towards the dateline helps. I'm not saying cold and snowy, but perhaps some chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I don't know...I'm somewhat optimistic for some chances heading into Feb. For a while we have some model agreement and the fact that models are trying to build some convection towards the dateline helps. I'm not saying cold and snowy, but perhaps some chances. Don't worry ... the atmosphere will fumble around and f it all up one way or the other... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Don't worry ... the atmosphere will fumble around and f it all up one way or the other... LOL, well it will probably be somewhat above normal, but we'll just take what we can get. This is not a snowpack winter for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 that's bargaining at that, "not a snow pack winter" face it, for purely commiseration's sake, this is a butt rape winter. This a Shawshank winter, only no redemption - Up,....there it is, yet another "Sister of mercy" run in the 18z GFS! What do we win, Johny!? you get repeating seasonal cold with no snow ... beating every statistical odds in doing that imaginable. And, for your viewing pleasure ...NO LUBRICATION! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 That winter was overrated also. I enjoyed the 46" in five days. but almost every other event that year (09-10) went out to sea on us. A six inch snowfall would be nice this year...who's asking for 4 feet.... But my situation (18" since 11/1) pales compared to the CD where KALB is at 11.8 inches for the entire season so far. There really is no way to sugar coat how much of a fail this winter is so far, but I agree the final grade isn't until April. How much snow does the lake george area average, we couldn't have had much more than 10 inches so far this year. I believe average is around 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 that's bargaining at that, "not a snow pack winter" face it, for purely commiseration's sake, this is a butt rape winter. This a Shawshank winter, only no redemption - Up,....there it is, yet another "Sister of mercy" run in the 18z GFS! What do we win, Johny!? you get repeating seasonal cold with no snow ... beating every statistical odds in doing that imaginable. And, for your viewing pleasure ...NO LUBRICATION! Good thing you don't get emotionally invested in the weather and you are able to look at it objectively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 LOL, well it will probably be somewhat above normal, but we'll just take what we can get. This is not a snowpack winter for most. Feb looks like a torch with the same pattern as december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Feb looks like a torch with the same pattern as december Disagree. It will probably be above normal, but it certainly does not look to start the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 How much snow does the lake george area average, we couldn't have had much more than 10 inches so far this year. I believe average is around 85 That area may take the cake for highest departure from average percentage wise so far... can't even use upslope or lake effect to rack up snowfall, the Oct snows whiffed like up here, and every other storm has been too far east or too far west. Amazing and I feel for Gore and that general region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Disagree. It will probably be above normal, but it certainly does not look to start the same. Even with a positive pna, canada is no where near as cold as it was this past month. I doubt we can sustain a postive pna for more than a few days in this patten, I also see no meaningful blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Looks like combo of +WPO and +PNA. This is not a cold signal, but it helps to have a ridge in the west. Sort of neutral to +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Even with a positive pna, canada is no where near as cold as it was this past month. Well it doesn't need to be vodka cold, given it's Feb. If you can get a ridge out west, there should be some marginal cold. Problem is that id ridge is not far enough east...no blocking may cause coastal huggers, but that's speculating big time. Even of Feb starts warm, we will not have a 4SD +AO which is a big difference alone. We'll see if models hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 That area may take the cake for highest departure from average percentage wise so far... can't even use upslope or lake effect to rack up snowfall, the Oct snows whiffed like up here, and every other storm has been too far east or too far west. Amazing and I feel for Gore and that general region. At least gore can make snow, the snowmobiling this year is non existant. Its possible trails don't open up at all this year and lakes are still open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Disagree. It will probably be above normal, but it certainly does not look to start the same. Lol he has no clue. Everything he posts the opposite happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Well it doesn't need to be vodka cold, given it's Feb. If you can get a ridge out west, there should be some marginal cold. Problem is that id ridge is not far enough east...no blocking may cause coastal huggers, but that's speculating big time. Even of Feb starts warm, we will not have a 4SD +AO which is a big difference alone. We'll see if models hold. Yeah this pattern should give us chances even if not a solidly below normal type regime...the models do want to keep retrograding the AK low and if it retrogrades far enough west, it will actually eventually cause a -EPO which is a hope we can have for beyond early February. You can see it on both the Euro ensembles and GEFS beyond 300h...it becomes a +PNA/-EPO pattern and the cold gets driven into the eastern half of Canada...def a cooler look there than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 We like coastal huggers. I thought this might be the winter for coastal huggers since last year was mostly OTS for us. But alas it is mutually assured suffering for everyone this year. Well it doesn't need to be vodka cold, given it's Feb. If you can get a ridge out west, there should be some marginal cold. Problem is that id ridge is not far enough east...no blocking may cause coastal huggers, but that's speculating big time. Even of Feb starts warm, we will not have a 4SD +AO which is a big difference alone. We'll see if models hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 We like coastal huggers. I thought this might be the winter for coastal huggers since last year was mostly OTS for us. But alas it is mutually assured suffering for everyone this year. Winter is far from over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Even with a positive pna, canada is no where near as cold as it was this past month. I doubt we can sustain a postive pna for more than a few days in this patten, I also see no meaningful blocking. This is rooted in deep science? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 that's bargaining at that, "not a snow pack winter" face it, for purely commiseration's sake, this is a butt rape winter. This a Shawshank winter, only no redemption - Up,....there it is, yet another "Sister of mercy" run in the 18z GFS! What do we win, Johny!? you get repeating seasonal cold with no snow ... beating every statistical odds in doing that imaginable. And, for your viewing pleasure ...NO LUBRICATION! Haha good one and yeah we are just over half through our tunnel of sh1t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 that's bargaining at that, "not a snow pack winter" face it, for purely commiseration's sake, this is a butt rape winter. This a Shawshank winter, only no redemption - Up,....there it is, yet another "Sister of mercy" run in the 18z GFS! What do we win, Johny!? you get repeating seasonal cold with no snow ... beating every statistical odds in doing that imaginable. And, for your viewing pleasure ...NO LUBRICATION! Japan style meltdown, cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Nor'easter 27 is a robo poster. Might be one of the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Lots to be ironed out. Ens all over the place..but potential looks good for another weekend snowstorm FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...ECMWF CAME IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRES MOVING OFF THE ATLC COAST. BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. I am with Tip. We have a better chance tripping into a lifeboat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Of course there will opporunities for snow in Feb, just like there were in Jan, I think the farther north and west you are the more likely, but mother nature always has tricks up her sleeves. Last weekend was awesome, and if thats it I am cool with that, enjoyed it like it might be the last one as I try and do every snowfall. Any ridging out west with a -AO should be plenty enough to bring ample chances. I dont think the NAO will be of much help but this time of year its not a must especially over the interior. I think having the gfs euro and canadian suppressed right now for the weekend might actually be encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Yeah this pattern should give us chances even if not a solidly below normal type regime...the models do want to keep retrograding the AK low and if it retrogrades far enough west, it will actually eventually cause a -EPO which is a hope we can have for beyond early February. You can see it on both the Euro ensembles and GEFS beyond 300h...it becomes a +PNA/-EPO pattern and the cold gets driven into the eastern half of Canada...def a cooler look there than previous runs. Yeah exactly (sorry for the typos in the previous posts). As long as that retros, we'll have a shot with the ridge forming....just gotta hope models continue with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Good thing you don't get emotionally invested in the weather and you are able to look at it objectively Right, purely "...For commiseration sake" Personally, I've already check out - I'm ready for spring and want this all over with. Even if it snowed hard a couple of times it's just going to get in my way at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Right, purely "...For commiseration sake" Personally, I've already check out - I'm ready for spring and want this all over with. Even if it snowed hard a couple of times it's just going to get in my way at this point. Oh man....I see right through this statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 This is rooted in deep science? Well to be fair, there isn't a yes or a no answer to how long it can be sustained. Still in the works as far as modeling goes. I was more or less answering to the fact that Canada isn't cold, or has to be cold. Not necessarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Right, purely "...For commiseration sake" Personally, I've already check out - I'm ready for spring and want this all over with. Even if it snowed hard a couple of times it's just going to get in my way at this point. Haha I'm just busting your ballz Tip...it has been frustrating. Sometimes more than others. Just when it looked like we were on the cusp of going somewhere, building the pack, it gets beaten back down several inches when we should be gaining inches not losing them, and the snowbanks turn brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 ugh... is there anything positive to look forward too? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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